| Posted by: Alphaunit1 at August 8, 2006, 12:31 pm | | Topic: Party Monster BBJ EV? Forum: Bonus Whores | | Okay, that does make sense to me. I was surprised when you said it would accumulate more slowly, as I had been watching it for the last week or so and had seen it get quite high quite quickly quite often. (quite/quite/quite. ) The actual accumulation is technically slower (per hand), but with the increased number of players playing those tables, the actual hour-by-hour increase is quite a bit higher than before. It does make sense that variance will have a degree in how high it gets, but it should bump into the high levels more often now. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: luckyfish at August 7, 2006, 11:18 am | | Topic: Party Monster BBJ EV? Forum: Bonus Whores | I know that there were some decent sized jackpots in the last week.
But still, although there are now many more BBJ-hands going, this doesnt matter at all for the jackpot-size. The jackpot is on average hit after x hands, if this number of hands is
played in one day or one year is irrelevant. The average size of the jackpot is 70% of the average size before. What is better now is since many more hands are played in a short time-frame, you will have a better chance to find a +EV jackpot due to variance (i.e. the jackpot is not hit in many more hands than x). | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Alphaunit1 at August 7, 2006, 10:15 am | | Topic: Party Monster BBJ EV? Forum: Bonus Whores | Makes it harder for the BBJ to get to a decent size? Have you checked in at Party at all in the last week or so? The BBJ is routinely getting into the $200k - $300k range, and often pushing $400k. It is easily growing by over $150k-$175k per day right now with so many more people playing on those tables.
It absolutely SUCKS if you don't want to play on a BBJ table, because they are not anywhere near as common anymore, but as long as the jackpot has reached critical size, it is quite often +EV if BW's calculations are accurate, not taking into account the freeroll tickets, etc. Not bad if you like chasing those long shots. (I never thought I'd see somebody hit it, but my father actually hit the thing about 2 months ago. Hell of a nice payday for him!) | | Static Link |
| Posted by: luckyfish at August 6, 2006, 12:14 pm | | Topic: Party Monster BBJ EV? Forum: Bonus Whores | The jackpot doesnt need to be higher than before to make it +EV playing jackpot tables.
The risk ($0.50 extra rake) and reward (jackpot at amount x) are the same as before (actually because 72% instead of 70% of the jackpot is paid its even a little better than before given jakpot-size x).
It doesnt matter for you how many % of the extra rake are not going into the jackpot
because this just determines the size of the jackpot for future hands.
What does happen though is that the jackpot growth per hand is lower, which makes it harder to get to a decent-sized (and thus +EV) jackpot. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Lrgetrout at August 5, 2006, 10:11 pm | | Topic: Party Monster BBJ EV? Forum: Bonus Whores | Noting that only 70% of the bad beat drop is actually going to the bad beat qualifier, a simple way of looking at it is simply to adjust for the reduced contribution, thusly:
$2-$4: $130,000/0.7=$186,000 (rounding all numbers up to the next thousand)
$3-$6: $149,000/0.7=$213,000
$5-$10: $177,000/0.7=$253,000
$10-$20: $189,000/0.7=$270,000
$15-$30: $198,000/0.7=$283,000
They also have adjusted how the jackpot is distributed when it is hit: Now, 72% of the jackpot is distrubuted, and all 28% is used as a seed for the next jackpot (50-25-25% for loser/winner/table share on the hand), whereas before, it was 70/20/10% (distributed/seed/raked). Simply looking at the increased distribution for the jackpot (and ignoring the lack of rake on it, which I believe should not come into play here), we can divide by 1.0285 (since they are now paying the jackpot winners 102.85% of what they were paying before), to get these numbers:
2-4: 186000/1.0285=$181,000
3-6: 213... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: kalibershandy at August 3, 2006, 3:32 pm | | Topic: Party Monster BBJ EV? Forum: Bonus Whores | | Think 1M+ before you're getting a good price. This is just a lottery where 30% gets confiscated and redistributed elsewhere. All the lost EV can be found in the 5/1 SnG Monster qualifiers. Those seats are worth 300 or so thanks to the tax on the Monster BBJ. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: PokerProfile at August 1, 2006, 4:51 pm | | Topic: Party Monster BBJ EV? Forum: Bonus Whores | Does anyone know what the +EV levels for the Monster Bad Beat Jackpot are at different stakes of limit and NL (I'm interested primarily in low-stakes NL)?
I guess the jackpot has to be quite a bit higher than the ordinary BBJ was to be +EV as the extra rake taken from the pot is very high at low-stakes NL, but it is reaching close to $400,000 before being won at the moment.
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