| Posted by: vickinz at July 1, 2001, 2:58 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
PJ: I hear what you are saying.
I was a ery ery regular player at my land casino (10 mins away) for years and agree with your assertions. Some are just uncannily lucky. They win car after car, or jackpot after jackpot...frequently choosing the just the right slot machine 10 - 30 minutes before. And a few gamblers say they are just ery lucky people, winning also lotteries, raffles, office draws etc. My husband worked with a man whose wife won at least something every week!
The roulette winner I was speaking of said that he was thinking of offering $25,000 to a usually "winning" blackjack player to teach him all he knew and I replied that you can know it all, but you have to have the luck too to ever win big consistently. In my opinion my son knows a lot about blackjack and craps theoretically, but he aint got the gambler's luck, and fortunately knows it!
But this winning roulette player agreed with my observations, which most find too superstitious, but I have kept a ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: PJ at June 30, 2001, 5:11 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
When I read this I was reminded of a lot of reading I've done
[QUOTE]Originally posted by ickinz:
[B]Some of this is a little too esoteric for me to comprehend fully...but I've become interested in roulette since a player (at land casino restaurant) told me last week that the first year he made $580,000 at roulette, and has averaged $300,000p.a. in each of the last 3 years. He said, however, that he's toned down his bets since losing $58,000 in a week (or was that a month?) because they changed the size of the ball and this has made it much harder to predict the outcome. But his friend still made $100,000 approx. in the same time (week or month, can't remember) with the new ball.
Systems, Methods, Approaches,.. they all have one thing in common. People are looking for regularity in an environment where things that should happen- don't happen, and things that shouldn't happen- do happen. I have seen fortune smile on the wealthy and the poor alike. Some how, some way, some people seem to ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: o-3 at June 30, 2001, 1:05 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by AaronzDad:
Nope, I haven't tried it with real dough yet but I've tried it "for fun" on eleven different casino softwares and it works every time.
Time to go for it huh?
~ D
Yeah go for it....let me know how you go.
But be careful.....i have seen 13 straight in one column and row!
Good luck!
[This message has been edited by AaronzDad (edited 06-20-2001).]
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| Posted by: The Original Mary at June 20, 2001, 10:22 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Thorpe (of counting fame) wrote a good book of assorted gambling essays you might want to get; he has some about roulette that I think you'd enjoy.
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| Posted by: AaronzDad at June 20, 2001, 5:48 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Nope, I haven't tried it with real dough yet but I've tried it "for fun" on eleven different casino softwares and it works every time.
Time to go for it huh?
~ D
[This message has been edited by AaronzDad (edited 06-20-2001).]
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| Posted by: o-3 at June 18, 2001, 6:02 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
ok thanks Aaronsdad....ill check it out.
Ill keep you informed if i come across any other good roulette casinos.
Hows is your system going?
and have you tried it out for real yet?
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| Posted by: AaronzDad at June 18, 2001, 5:29 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Yeah! I found one I really like... go check out Global Player Casino. Try their french roulette, it's single-zero. You can shut off the sounds and animations at the start-up screen or through the "player history" button on the game. Just go through the "options" screen and shut off all the nonsense.
You can find 'em at www.global-player.com
Good luck!
~ D
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| Posted by: o-3 at June 18, 2001, 12:27 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Aarronsdad..........Im using a roulette system aswell and have found that luckynugget seem to have the best roulette game so far.
Do you know of any other casinos that have the quickspin function besides the gaming club and lucky nugget?
Also to the microgaming critics out there....Is it just the blackjack thats rigged or are all the games rigged?..ie roulette.
cheers.
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| Posted by: AaronzDad at June 17, 2001, 9:04 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
That's just an old gambler's saying out in Nevada.
It's just expressing the foolishness of people who rely on systems and how they'll dump twice or three times as much money as the average gambler because they have faith in their system.
Sit next to some yahoo playing a system his neighbor's dog gave him in a dream and you'll understand.
Enjoy!
~ D
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| Posted by: profithunter at June 17, 2001, 8:53 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
if you have money to burn using a system they'll fly you in on your own personal Lear Jet.[/b] [/B][/QUOTE]
AaronzDad,
I'm curious. Why do they treat you extra special if you use a system. Thanks
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| Posted by: profithunter at June 15, 2001, 5:36 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
I know his experience isn't online, but profithunter is using a real wheel for his research.
vickinz
The results hold up at all of the play for free sites as well. Of course playing at only the single zero wheel sites makes them a tad more reliable. Did I interpret your comment correctly? Thanks
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| Posted by: vickinz at June 15, 2001, 2:39 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Some of this is a little too esoteric for me to comprehend fully...but I've become interested in roulette since a player (at land casino restaurant) told me last week that the first year he made $580,000 at roulette, and has averaged $300,000p.a. in each of the last 3 years. He said, however, that he's toned down his bets since losing $58,000 in a week (or was that a month?) because they changed the size of the ball and this has made it much harder to predict the outcome. But his friend still made $100,000 approx. in the same time (week or month, can't remember) with the new ball.
Dont think he was exaggerating to impress as we discussed business and I know when someone is bluffing there...he gambles 5 - 6 days a week and says finds it much easier than running a business being on call 24 hours.
I know his experience isn't online, but profithunter is using a real wheel for his research.
Sorry if this is all irrelevant!
[This message has been edited by ickinz (edited 06... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: AaronzDad at June 15, 2001, 12:02 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
I gotcha now. Insurance~Casinos. Interesting concept and ery apt. Same principle at work there, just in different directions.
This brings to mind another study done some time ago. Something about irregular reward conditioning. If one gets rewarded for a specific behaviour only occasionally they will continue the behaviour long long after the reward is removed entirely.
Hence gambling.
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| Posted by: tedm at June 15, 2001, 9:32 am | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
The point about insurance is this. Normally people tend to be risk-averse. They will tend to pay some premium to avoid the chance that they might incur a catastrophic loss even if the chance that such a loss might occur is ery slim. The insurance companies spread out this risk over many policyholders. Indeed, they function much like casinos in the sense that they will have to pay out some policyholders but they will generally make a profit.
The paradox comes when people are risk-seekers. This means they pay a premium to ASSUME risk as opposed to AVOIDING risk. Since most casino games are negative expectation, and there are many many gamblers, this is a paradox that has confused a lot of economists.
Regardless of expected monetary loss, if your satisfaction from gambling exceeds this loss then you will tend to gamble. Same principle holds if you pay to go see a movie.
Actually I am straying way off topic but these were some of the principles I was alluding to.
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| Posted by: profithunter at June 14, 2001, 9:17 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Dave R,Thank you for your input on this subject. I would like to have the opportunity to review Richard Epstein's ideas. Let me tell you how I arrived at the notion of writing roulette systems and we can go from there if you want to. In the summer of 1990, I bought an inexpensive double zero roulette wheel from a gaming supply store that is a decent replica of the wheels currently being used in casinos today. It is still level. I did this because although my training is in chemistry and not in statistics per se,I accept no data that isn't observed and collected by myself. I didn't live in a gaming state then and had no experience with roulette and therefore no idea about what to expect. My initial reasoning was childishly simple: There are 38 numbers on this wheel. Every number has an equal chance to be "captured" by the ball on every spin. Therefore it is theoretically possible to spin the wheel 38 times in a row and have each number hit at least once with no repeats. I spun the wheel 38 time... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: AaronzDad at June 14, 2001, 6:23 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Tedm, you are ery right... and you are ery wrong. You're right in that you cannot win playing 2/3 of the board since when you lose you lose twice as much as they're paying you when you win. You're wrong in your assumption of my "system". I tried what you suggest there and it all crashed and burned. Nine losses in a row cleaned out the "for fun" account and I gave up on that thought. It would work wondrously if I had bottomless pockets and if the casino had no table limits whatsoever. I am not Bill Gates and the casinos do have rules so that doesn't work.
The principle is somewhat similar though. I just needed help with the formula and I don't want to give away what I'm thinking and doing. Not that it really matters anyway.
Jerry: When I speak of chances ersus odds I'm talking about lots and lots of repititions. IE: if I played the first two columns every spin for 100 spins the law of averages says I'd win 66 times(again, I'm ignoring the zeros). That's just marvy ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: DaiLun at June 14, 2001, 3:29 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Tedm,
That's not what I meant. When you (at least I) buy a Lottery ticket you know that the odds are a gazillion to one against you and if you're lucky enough to win, so be it.
Creating a system that claims to negate laws of mathematics which have Been in place for thousands of years without any scientific proof to support is another thing.
Scientists call it . . . superstition.
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| Posted by: tedm at June 14, 2001, 12:46 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
I am surprised that anyone with reasonable mathematics aptitude actually believes that a betting system can change a negative outcome game into one with a positive outcome in the long run.
Heck, people buy lottery tickets all the time. They also buy insurance (fire, life, auto). Go figure.
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| Posted by: DaiLun at June 14, 2001, 9:42 am | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by CasinoNow:
". . . Honestly, I do not see any reason to project any farther what your odds are of hitting a winner throughout x number of spins, because I do not see any alid reason for tracking a series of spins. Each spin of the wheel is a unique game that is completely independant of all other spins, and because results do not effect the game on subsequent spins, there is no change in odds from one to the next. Perhaps someone else will have a different point of iew on this or an answer that is a better match for your question.
Jerry Garner
CasinoNow Gaming Resource Center
[This message has been edited by CasinoNow (edited 06-14-2001).][/B]
This is the problem with any "system" based on trend analysis. Unlike the stock market, which can have some level of predictability based on events, gambling is based on random occurrences and is therefore by nature, unpredictable.
A negative outcome game will remain ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: grantt at June 14, 2001, 9:23 am | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
aaronzdad Betting two columns is the roulette method I use. I will wager say $10 on column one and two and $5 straight up on one number in the third column that I did not wager on. If it appears more red numbers are coming up I bet columns one and three. As this covers more red numbers and if it appears more black is coming up I play columns one and two as there is more black numbers covering these two rows. I tend to win more often than I lose this way but, I definately have lost doing this. I see this as the best system bar none including any blackjack stratagies out there.
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| Posted by: tedm at June 14, 2001, 8:51 am | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
The chance of losing any particular trial is roughly 1/3. Actually it is a little higher because of the 0.
Therefore the chance that you will lose n spins in a row is 1/3^n
For example, the probability you will lose 4 bets in a row is 1/81
This is highly unlikely, but it will happen if you play enough. My hunch is that you are increasing the wager size after each losing spin. I promise that sooner or later you will have a run of bad luck and you will lose a LOT of money during this run.
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| Posted by: CasinoNow at June 14, 2001, 8:24 am | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Well, I think it's difficult to say, because I don't look at it quite the same way you do. I do not see it as having a 66% chance of winning. I would simply iew it as having a 24/36 chance of winning, which breaks down to 2/3. To carry this out 4 times would come out to be 96/144, which also breaks down to a 2/3 chance of winning any given spin.
Honestly, I do not see any reason to project any farther what your odds are of hitting a winner throughout x number of spins, because I do not see any alid reason for tracking a series of spins. Each spin of the wheel is a unique game that is completely independant of all other spins, and because results do not effect the game on subsequent spins, there is no change in odds from one to the next. Perhaps someone else will have a different point of iew on this or an answer that is a better match for your question.
Jerry Garner
CasinoNow Gaming Resource Center
[This message has been edited by CasinoNow (edited 06-14-2001).]
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| Posted by: AaronzDad at June 14, 2001, 7:07 am | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Ok, maybe I should go the other direction with my question here...
Let's use the column bets for example. If I'm betting on the first two columns I have a 66% chance of winning(yes, I'm ignoring the zeros for now). If I bet those two columns two or three or four times in a row what are my chances of winning at least one of those three or four spins?
Know what I mean now?
Thanks!
~ D
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| Posted by: CasinoNow at June 13, 2001, 5:56 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
The five way bet would be the line that connects 0, 00, and the three numbers listed directly below them.
As far as your other question, about the series of bets, I really can't answer it and am not sure if I understand it completely. However, I can say that in a game like Roulette, regardless of what popular belief is, you have equal odds of hitting any number on any given spin of the wheel.
Jerry Garner
CasinoNow Gaming Resource Center
Quote: Originally Posted by AaronzDad:
Ok, forgive my ignorance here but what the heck is a "five way bet" on roulette? I'm unfamiliar with that term.
Playtherush, You're right about the superstitious ones playing roulette. I've seen some real characters at tables around the country.
Jerry, are you calculating odds or chances? If you're good at that how would you figure chances on a series of rolls? I mean, if my chances of winning were 35% each roll then what does that drop to after two rolls or three or ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Dave R at June 13, 2001, 4:29 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Aaronzdad and Profithunter,
"In the 1967 edition of the 'Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic'
(pages 58-59) Richard Epstein published a mathematical proof that demonstrates unequivocally that all betting systems applied to negative expectation games lose in the long run. Epstein did not prove that all Martingales do not work, or all Reverse Labouchere do not work, or all previously conceived staking systems do not work. He proved that ALL staking systems - those already conceived and those not yet conceived - are doomed to fail."...
..."Any player who places a bet anywhere on a double zero roulette wheel anywhere in the world does so bucking a house advantage of 5.26%. It doesn't matter if the last ten numbers were black, or the last twenty were red. It doesn't matter if the player's a mathematician, a statistician, or a dammed fool. Every spin of the little white ball is a new universe, and that's as immutable as the law of gravity.
The technical term ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: AaronzDad at June 13, 2001, 3:56 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Ok, forgive my ignorance here but what the heck is a "five way bet" on roulette? I'm unfamiliar with that term.
Playtherush, You're right about the superstitious ones playing roulette. I've seen some real characters at tables around the country.
Jerry, are you calculating odds or chances? If you're good at that how would you figure chances on a series of rolls? I mean, if my chances of winning were 35% each roll then what does that drop to after two rolls or three or four? Of course, that's assuming I've lost the bet each time. Do you understand my question or am I talking in circles here?
Maybe I've been talking in circles all along... hmmm...
~ D
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| Posted by: Playtherush at June 13, 2001, 1:39 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Jerry your "estimates" are all correct. Basically, 36 doesn't divide by 5 so the casino pockets a bigger edge.
Roulette, along with bacarat, seems to attract the most superstitious and uninformed gamblers. Makes sense really, since no skill is involved in playing either.
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| Posted by: CasinoNow at June 13, 2001, 10:30 am | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
That's what I thought babe. It must be a status wager for the wealthy guys trying to impress everyone around the table. Either that or for suckers that don't take time to analyze the odds. I am showing this to have an average house edge of 7.89%, with all other table bets having an average edge of 5.26%. Even this is a bad deal, because I estimate an average house edge of 2.70% on all bets on a 0 table.
Jerry Garner
CasinoNow Gaming Resource Center
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| Posted by: AaronzDad at June 12, 2001, 6:55 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
You're absolutely right about not wanting to spell out the system to the world. I'll give you a little background though: I used to live in Reno, NV and I was playing roulette next to another guy and we got to chatting. It turns out he was the second-shift security chief at a Lake Tahoe casino and was trying a system he'd seen some guy using at his casino. They'd watched this player for some time because he was accumulating such a pile of chips and they were trying to determine if or how he was cheating. They finally discovered the basics of his system. This security chief told me what he'd seen this guy do and I tried it a few times but it only had piddling success if any.
That was years and years ago.
Recently I took a trip out to Las Vegas and my interest in the old memory of the system was renewed. After I returned home I putzed around with the percentages and lightning struck.
All my bets are on the outside and I know instantly what my next bet is going to be even befo... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: babe at June 12, 2001, 6:05 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
If you enjoy playing roulette fine. If you enjoy using some sort of betting system while playing roulette, fine. But don't expect your system to beat the game or lose any less money than any other betting method. You may win today, and you may win tomorrow and the next day, but in the long run, you will lose.
Casino Now:
The only use for the 5 way bet is to make the casino money faster.
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| Posted by: profithunter at June 12, 2001, 8:52 am | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
AaronzDad, I have also devised roulette system and have an identical concern as yours about the comparison of "fun" ersus "real" play. Casinomember's reply to you makes me feel more confident. I can't say that I would make a killing but I've yet to lose playing for fun. I understand of course why you wouldn't want to spell out to the world what your system is but may we speak in ague generalities? For example, I don't use the Martingale system or any of the other traditional systems that everybdy knows about. I've written my own. Unfortunately, I can't use it in person in a real casino because I can't process and keep track of the data as fast and as accurately as a piece of computer software can before the next spin. I've never used more than $1000 bucks to profit basically about $100 in any one session.Everything I do is on the inside. I guess what I'm asking here is, should I be paying more attention to the traditional systems or some ariation of them in order to make more profit?... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: CasinoNow at June 12, 2001, 7:53 am | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Roulette should be the same regardless of whether it's free play or real money, as long as it has the same game rules. I mean, obviously if the free play is a 0 wheel and the real play is 0/00, then your expected return is going to be different, but I would expect an identical game in both ersions of the casinos.
Speaking of Roulette, does anyone ever actually make a 5 way bet on the 0/00 wheel. From what I can tell, this bet has a higher house edge than any other bet on the table, and I couldn't imagine anyone betting it. Is there a use for it that I am not seeing?
Jerry Garner
<a href="http://www.casinonow.net">CasinoNow Gaming Resource Center</a>
Quote: Originally Posted by AaronzDad:
Hey, thanks for the quick response!
Roulette is the game I've been working on and from what you've said the "play for fun" ersion should be pretty close to the real thing. Am I right?
Thanks again!
~ D
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| Posted by: AaronzDad at June 11, 2001, 8:39 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Hey, thanks for the quick response!
Roulette is the game I've been working on and from what you've said the "play for fun" ersion should be pretty close to the real thing. Am I right?
Thanks again!
~ D
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| Posted by: CasinoNow at June 11, 2001, 7:22 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
I don't think that there is a simple answer to your question. To begin with, it would depend on what game you are playing. A 9/6 VP game is going to be the same either way, because it is the paytable that determines the payout percentage. However, if you are playing slots, it's a completely different story.
Beyond that, it's safe to say that the play for free is not the same as the real money games. When you are playing for real, you are connecting into the server side modules that generate the random numbers properly, which in an honest operation will give you realistic expectations in your game play.
When you are playing for fun, there is no reason to use system resources accessing the server side, so most places typically use pseudo-random number generation procedures. In theory, these should be accurate enough that you will get realistic game play, but it's never going to be the exact same results as you would get playing for real.
Please don't get this confused with play ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: AaronzDad at June 11, 2001, 6:51 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Ok, I've downloaded several online casino's softwares here and I've played "for fun" trying out a system I've devised here and I'm making a killing in play money. So now that I'm ready to try for real cash how do I know that the "for fun" game is the same as the real deal? Do they have the coding set to let you win more often when you're only playing for fun then rob you blind when you're suckered in to play for real?
Anyone have any experience with this?
Thanks for any input here.
~ D
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