| Posted by: The GameMaster at March 5, 2002, 10:26 pm | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
Caruso,
I didn't mean ignorance of the law, because as Dirk rightly says, there is no "law" of ideo poker. There are many areas of the world where VP games are set with a percentage payout, rather than a random deal from an "x-card" deck, such as Japan, some islands in the Caribbean, some Native American casinos in California, etc. In Atlantic City, they could be set that way, unless the law has been changed. VP games there used to fall under the slot regulations and all that's required is an 87%(??) minimum payback.
Most European casinos do not have VP games and I think a lot of them believe they're just another form of slot. I used the word "ignorant" in the context of they just don't know how VP works.
Regarding books on statistics, etc. I'll add two to Ken's list:
1. "Probability, Statistics and Truth" by Richard on Mise, 2nd edition. $8.95 at Borders, even though it was published in 1957.
2."Business Statistic... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: BlackjackInfo at March 1, 2002, 6:36 pm | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
I'll give you three recommendations, none of which is ideal:The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic by Richard A. Epstein
Good information, but pretty dry reading.The Casino Gambler's Guide by Allan N. Wilson
Great book, but sadly out of print.
(I have a couple of copies for sale. I'll take $70 each.)Can You Win? by Mike Orkin.
This one is more trade book, compared to the textbook style of Epstein. It's not bad.
--------------
I'd like to add a better book to MY library as well. Anyone else have any recommendations?
Quote:
caruso wrote:
Blackjackinfo: Would you be so kind as to recommend a / some statistical texts which go into detail on just such gambling theory questions as these and others, if you have a moment?
------------------
-Ken-
BlackjackInfo.com: Home of the Blackjack Basic Strategy Engine
[This message has been edited by BlackjackInfo (edited 03-01-2002).]
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: The Original Mary at March 1, 2002, 1:35 pm | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
Is it cheating?
Well, in the case of Slotland, no. Slotland does not claim on its site that its games conform to Nevada standards, and does disclose that their "card" games are actually slot games.
(At least last time I checked. If they claim otherwise, they are cheating.)
The company I'm investigating has many signs of rinkidinkness. By design or by laziness, it's effectively fraudulent. It's already on many "Not Recommended" lists for other reasons, so players have been and are protected.
I just feel indicated that my instincts have been proven...anyway, getting the ducks in order for a good story for you'all.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: jondo at March 1, 2002, 12:57 pm | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
Why then do we continue to play at these places? It is impossible to know if you are getting a fair deal. You can not rely on another's experience good or ill. An example is Caruso s me at global player.
I've had some success at a reputable casino lately, but I still wonder. Too many weird patterns too frequently.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Dirk_Dangerous at March 1, 2002, 11:08 am | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
Quote:
GM - Ignorance of the law is an excuse?
That's the problem there is no law. But I agree with you, ignorance is no excuse for cheating. But I think Gamemaster was just pointing out that these neophyte programmers think all they have to do is design software that looks like a game and they are in business.
The “if you design gambling software, they will come” attitude is still prevelant.
The best thing to do is notify this software company that they are cheating and that the gambling public will be made aware of what they are doing.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: caruso at March 1, 2002, 10:33 am | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
GM - Ignorance of the law is an excuse? A 99.54% game is "rigged" to return 90%+, and this represents not cheating, but ignorance on the part of the programmers? "Sorry you lost so many thousands of dollars folks; we didn't mean it, we just didn't realize that Deuces Wild Full Pay is a different concept to Treasure Nile; forgive our ignorance."
Pardon me if I disagree.
Blackjackinfo: Would you be so kind as to recommend a / some statistical texts which go into detail on just such gambling theory questions as these and others, if you have a moment?
(Edit for ridiculous typo)
[This message has been edited by caruso (edited 03-01-2002).]
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: The GameMaster at March 1, 2002, 9:32 am | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
Hello, Mary.
I think you have analyzed it correctly: you were playing a slot machine disguised as a Video Poker game.
Just on the deal alone, ignoring drawing to a hand for the moment, you'd expect to get on average 8 hands of 40 that were Jacks or better. Not getting any is within the realm of possibility for a fair game, but to not improve on any for at least some sort of pay is off the edge of the charts.
But as you say, it's probably not a case of cheating but more a case of ignorance on the part of the programmers. Sad.
GM
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: BlackjackInfo at March 1, 2002, 8:56 am | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
Careful here Tester,
the odds you are calculating represent the likelihood that a specific three hands will all be Royals.
For example, how likely are my next three hands to be Royals?: 1 in 64 trillion.
A question like: How likely am I to hit two consecutive royals sometime in my next 40 hours of play yields a result that's not so astronomical.
Quote: Originally Posted by Tester:
Two natoral royal flush in a row is much more probable then 1/31,000,000,000.
Three natoral royal flush in a row is less probable, however........
royal flushes:
1: 1/40,000
2: 1/1,600,000,000
3: 1/64,000,000,000,000
(natoral royal flush has a probability of around 1/40,000 - depends on the game but it is almost always near that.)
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: caruso at March 1, 2002, 5:30 am | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
You can't play VP at $10 a go on a $200 balance and expect to survive; ariance is much too high, even in a random game.
However, Slotland denied a 50k Jackpot to one player, claiming she made a "mistake" - then offered her $200 hush money.
Play at your own risk with crooks.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: RainFall at March 1, 2002, 12:55 am | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
If mary is talking about SLOTLAND then she is right. I played 10$ VP there figuring it was a fair game(100dep+100 bonus) Lost all of my deposit without a single hit above a pair of jacks. They gave me a 50$ bonus because i bitched. Played 5$ hands and went 0-10
go figure.
[This message has been edited by RainFall (edited 03-01-2002).]
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Dirk_Dangerous at February 28, 2002, 7:52 pm | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
Quote:
but basically, it's that "isn't ideo poker just another slot?" mindset that one finds among programmers and designers that don't do their homework.
Explain to them that such nonsense is widely considered cheating, and that many players aren't as dumb as they are.
Although, I doubt it will do any good.
[This message has been edited by Dirk_Dangerous (edited 02-28-2002).]
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Tester at February 28, 2002, 7:19 pm | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
Two natoral royal flush in a row is much more probable then 1/31,000,000,000.
Three natoral royal flush in a row is less probable, however........
royal flushes:
1: 1/40,000
2: 1/1,600,000,000
3: 1/64,000,000,000,000
(natoral royal flush has a probability of around 1/40,000 - depends on the game but it is almost always near that.)
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: The Original Mary at February 28, 2002, 7:18 pm | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
The story which is developing is quite funny. I need to double-check some things before naming names, but basically, it's that "isn't ideo poker just another slot?" mindset that one finds among programmers and designers that don't do their homework.
Forty losing spins on a slot machine isn't unusual.
They do have the correct strategy for JoB on their casino website "help" text. Of course, it's all useless if it's programmed to be a slot machine in generating results!
Trust me, will be coming to a Not Recommended List near you.
And remember: Slotland's BJ is *not* Blackjack with cards, but a slot machine! Which they refreshingly disclose on *their* site.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: joeyl at February 28, 2002, 7:04 pm | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
But how ridiculous a scam is that then?I know buck all about any of this stuff,but even i could tell a scammer software/casino to not be so blatant.1 in 31 billion?Obviously sooner or later someone would expose them.Doing it to Mary of all people clicks my mind into satirical mode.I will refrain...
Pity we are not allowed to run an open book on what casino eh?
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Tester at February 28, 2002, 6:38 pm | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
probability of losing hand ^ 40 (in the power of 40)
There may be some minor increases of the results (i.e. how much samples you did overally and the like).
But any increase in that low probability will not make it anything acceptable
3.22e-11 or
1/30,000,000,000 is the probability of the specified event.
Now suppose that you did 10,000 such sessions, so what? 1/3,000,000 ........
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Dirk_Dangerous at February 28, 2002, 6:37 pm | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
Each hand is independent, so I think the probability may be .546642^40 = 3.22196E-11
Basically impossible I'd say.
Please tell us the software brand. Joints like this need to be exposed.
Also, pass this info along to the Wiz and Gamemaster.
Question, just to be clear, you had 40 bets, bet 40 hands and lost every single one, correct?
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: The Original Mary at February 28, 2002, 5:02 pm | | Topic: 40 consecutive hands of JoB, all lose: what are the odds? Forum: Winner Online |
Hey math buddies, what are the odds on a forty hand losing streak in Jacks or Better?
This is the probability of drawing and getting a loser hand, from the Wiz's page:
0.546642
For a forty hand losing streak, is that this decimal to the fortieth power?
Sample size was only forty hands. Ran out of money.
| | Static Link |
|