| Posted by: Power Pork at April 19, 2006, 8:00 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | (wipes tear from eye)
netted $3 dollars after bouns (again wipes tear from eye)
empire Sux, and yet I keep going back. I'm a skank for $$ even $3 measley clams and a whole Sunday doing it.
yliherra wrote: My 88 was cracked on Empire once as overcards fell on the flop. I think its rigged.
_________________
I AM THE DECEIDER OF STRATEGERY | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bluehill at April 19, 2006, 4:33 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | | I've played several reloads on Empire, and found it to be a fine site. In my opinion it doesn’t appear to be rigged, however it’s full of players whoring passively, that is low w$ip, but who will call all the way. These players are fairly easy to read, so I've made excellent profits by playing SLA-A. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: bearcatsean1 at April 18, 2006, 4:22 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Alphaunit1 wrote: Let me clear something up here: I flat out don't believe that Gyaawax actually lost his KK to somebody else's AA 7 times in 2500 hands. I've seen these kind of exaggerated posts many, many times. I simply was giving him the benefit of the doubt in that he lost it a few times, and was feeling a bit shell-shocked from it. I mean, I've had weeks go by where I can't seem to avoid my opponents hitting 2 and 3 outers, but often the stats show that they really didn't hit them that far out of the normal range, but it just seemed to coincide with bigger pots. *shrug*
Now, of course, if Gyaawax wants to post (or PM) the game numbers that his KK lost to AA so they can be independently verified, that would be fantastic, but I suspect he will have a hard time coming up with 7 during that reload period. Not trying to be a jerk, Gyaawax, but without proof it seems quite exaggerated to me (and most other people here). | | Static Link |
| Posted by: JuneBride at April 7, 2006, 11:06 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Thanks, Aphaunit.
My common sense tells me you are right.
Perhaps my luck has simply run bad for two months' worth of weekends. I hope so, since I wouldn't have any idea where to begin adjusting my play. This because I'm already used to playing loose microlimit tables, I like playing 6-max and am usually overjoyed when a maniac sits down. (I'm definitely not a rock.)
suggestions welcome; I could be overlooking some huge probs w/my play, just don't know what they are.
Thanks again | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Alphaunit1 at April 7, 2006, 7:59 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | A bit of helpful advice, JuneBride - this has NOTHING to do with the site and the way they are dealing cards. You are having troubles adjusting to the significantly looser "weekend" players. You will need to learn how to manage playing against players who will chase gutshots, etc. - they are more prevelant on weekends in general at most sites.
From my experience, I can make slow but steady profits at nearly any site during the day - the players are often tighter, pots are smaller, etc. Nighttimes/weekends the pots get bigger, the players get looser, and I either make a ton or get the crap kicked out of me. Nature of the beast. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: JuneBride at April 6, 2006, 6:44 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Funny,
I just did the reload at empire & had exactly the OPPOSITE reaction-- here's why:
3 day bonus, had to be satisfied on weekend.
I was nervous about this, since there are a number of sites I absolutely will not play on weekends (like the pokerroom network and any crypto site) since the board hinkiness seems to increase exponentially (way too many double-paired boards and broadway gutshots coming out on river). As far as I'm concerned whether or not i am imagining the increased hinkiness on the other sites is kind of a moot point (for me at least) since a glance over my profit records for the past several months showed me losing half of what i grind out at poker during weekdays on saturdays and sundays.
So, as I said, having to complete empire bonus over weekend made me nervous. Also, that was an absolute crapload of hands in 3 days for someone who normally plays .50/1 limit.
I completed the bonus though, playing over half of it above my norma... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: todd at April 5, 2006, 9:50 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | These probablilities are all much lower than the probability that I think we should really be interested in: the probability that something that causes the same shock level as 7 KK vs AA hands will happen.
I'm sure we'd hear the same complaints if it was KK vs QQ or 99 vs 44 7 times. We'd also hear the same thing if flushes got outdrawn by boats 7 times in a small number of rivers. Or boats losing to quads 3 times.
Unfortunately, this probability is very hard to calculate, and it also varies from person to person, because some types of bad beats affect some people more than others. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Ebene at April 5, 2006, 8:35 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Yeah those numbers are right - my numbers were slightly different because I forgot to comment out my value for p so the 1/4309 was being written by my original value, .0002750. I'm glad to see that this thread has become constructive.
And I also agree that this is probably an overexaggeration and that we will probably never see the logs. Note that if they were juicing the cards, you couln't just look at the number of KK's vs AA's, you'd have to look at how often you saw them together. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: xaiviax at April 5, 2006, 7:28 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Ebene wrote:
I am one of those stats guys, and I will happily run the numbers for you. Its almost exactly what I told you before, 0.78625E-5, so this will happen on average once every 127200 trials where each trial is 2500 hands.
Your error is in equating expectation with probability. Since you have a doctorate in number theory you know where to look this up, but I want to boil this down for those not mathematically inclined:
Over 2500 hands, you have about a 50% chance of having KK and running into AA one time. You have a 16% chance of this happening twice over 2500 hands, and it will happen to you 3 times in 2500 hands about 4% of the time. If you play a lot, you will probably run into a bad streak of 2500 hands where you get 4 KK vs. AA matchups about once a year, but most of you will never run into 5 KK vs. AA matchups over 2500 hands in your lifetime, unless the site is juicing the cards.
Ok, you have done a great job of making me brush up on my stats... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: xaiviax at April 5, 2006, 4:41 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Alphaunit1 wrote: Let me clear something up here: I flat out don't believe that Gyaawax actually lost his KK to somebody else's AA 7 times in 2500 hands. I've seen these kind of exaggerated posts many, many times. I simply was giving him the benefit of the doubt in that he lost it a few times, and was feeling a bit shell-shocked from it. I mean, I've had weeks go by where I can't seem to avoid my opponents hitting 2 and 3 outers, but often the stats show that they really didn't hit them that far out of the normal range, but it just seemed to coincide with bigger pots. *shrug*
Yeah, I've thought that way the whole time too (It definately could have happened, but I'm fully aware of people's tendencies to embellish their personal bad beat horror stories - I do alot of smile and nodding in live play.) | | Static Link |
| Posted by: banshee75 at April 5, 2006, 3:41 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | I play fairly unpredictable poker( i think). I bluff a lot etc which is great for putting someone on tilt then having him go all in with a marginal hand when you have the nuts. Anyways, i was up around $150+$200 bonus at the end of the bonus round so i was fairly happy.
As far as empire being rigged, I still say that this is retarded, you arent playing against the house, only thing empire could be doing is "juicing" the cards to make the rakes bigger? Why would they need to with all the maniacs out there anyways.
I know this is on a slightly different subject but WSEXes poker site(with 100% rakeback). I've also been playing there hard for the last couple days. Happily i'm up $100 plus have about $100 in rakeback coming back there. I don't see any evidence of bots like people are saying.
Anyways, I don't post much because I usually tend to ramble and veer off the subject(been visitting the site and have used the banners for....probably 10 signups). Happy poking---Ben | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Alphaunit1 at April 5, 2006, 3:30 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Let me clear something up here: I flat out don't believe that Gyaawax actually lost his KK to somebody else's AA 7 times in 2500 hands. I've seen these kind of exaggerated posts many, many times. I simply was giving him the benefit of the doubt in that he lost it a few times, and was feeling a bit shell-shocked from it. I mean, I've had weeks go by where I can't seem to avoid my opponents hitting 2 and 3 outers, but often the stats show that they really didn't hit them that far out of the normal range, but it just seemed to coincide with bigger pots. *shrug*
Now, of course, if Gyaawax wants to post (or PM) the game numbers that his KK lost to AA so they can be independently verified, that would be fantastic, but I suspect he will have a hard time coming up with 7 during that reload period. Not trying to be a jerk, Gyaawax, but without proof it seems quite exaggerated to me (and most other people here). | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Ebene at April 5, 2006, 1:40 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | xaiviax wrote:
Great 1st post
Let's say you're seat 1.
The chance you have kk is 0.004525 ( 4/52 * 3/51) , or 221 to 1
The chance seat 2 has aa is now 0.004898 ( 4/50 * 3/49), or 204 to 1
You could do a quick approximation and say that when you have kk the chance of 1 of the other 9 players having aa is 9/204 : odds of 22.7 to 1.
This would be "about" right. However, the other 9 players are sharing the same pool of cards, thus they are not independent statistical events. If seat 2 does not have aa, the chance seat 3 does is now a little higher. My doctorate is in number theory, not applied statistics, so others can explain the exact calculations better than I. It actually works out to about 19.5 to 1 of someone else having aa if you're dealt kk on a 10 player table.
Thus you will have kk vs aa about 1/(221*19.5) times : 4309 to 1
Without getting into standard deviation and varience, you are at least correct in the c... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Baseballer02 at April 5, 2006, 1:15 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | This thread does a great job of showing why I don't mind playing in the whore infested tables of Absolute, Poker Network, and B2B.
I love you guys. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Wadaphuic at April 5, 2006, 11:28 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Quote: furthermore, it happend to me 2 more times today, both times I folded when the preflop raise came and both times they showed, so now its up to 7 times to the same player in lets call it 3000 hands...
(Glad you're misunderstanding of varience combined with your belief Empire is rigged has turned you incredibly weaktight.)
LOL...
_________________
To Alcohol - the cause of- and solution to- all of life's problems.
Homer | | Static Link |
| Posted by: xaiviax at April 5, 2006, 1:32 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Gyaawax wrote the following. I put my answers in parentices
WE REALLY REALLY need to work on ur math here buddy...i love how people talk about stats and varience like they know what they are talking about...hahaha...first of all...the odds of aa and kk clashing in a full ring game are 542:1... ( now u see here, that is less then 5 times in 2500 hands, NOT 6!!!! secondly...the odds of me SEEING this matchup are about 5 times in 2500 hands, the key workd here is SEEING!!!! meaning it happening randomly to all the players playing that given sample of 2500 hands, the odds of it happening to the same player, that being me, are not 6 times smart guy, the odds of the same player getting hit with this match up 5 times in 2500 hands would be ASTRONOMICAL...I didnt count all the times i seen it happen, and that was more then a few also...
( uh, yeah, that's why I wrote "about" and that's why I wrote kk will see aa, not YOU will have kk vs aa. As for astronomical, see my above post.)
<... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: xaiviax at April 5, 2006, 12:56 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Ebene wrote: Gyaawax wrote: Umm, kk will find itself against aa an average of around 6 times in Full ring over around 2500 hands."
Don't berate the guy when you obviously have no idea what you are talking about. You only get KK about once every 216 hands, so you only expect 12 KK's total over that many hand, and your telling us half of them are supposed to be up against AA???!! There is a 50% chance you will play all 2500 hands and never run into an AA w/ your KK!
KK vs AA 7x over 2500 hands is nearing the realm of impossible. If this really happened, and if we can get a few more examples like this, then this is pretty damning evidence that Empire is rigged. I ran the numbers - the chance of getting 7 or more KK vs AA matchups in 2500 hands is .00008.
So lets say all 5000 players on Empire this weekend all played 2500 hands to whore out their bonus - the chance that ANY of them had 7 KK vs. AA is less than 4%.
Great 1st post
L... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: RedAndBlack at April 4, 2006, 8:19 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | If Empire's rigged so that "sets drop like crazy", why don't you change your play to accomodate this? You'll have a major advantage over idiots like me who are too stupid to realize that Empire's obviously rigged.
Or did you mean that Empire's specifically rigged against *you*? | | Static Link |
| Posted by: HajiShirazu at April 4, 2006, 7:13 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | | I took the biggest ass beating I have taken over a 1500-2k hand period since I started poker on this one. However it was simply due to a combination of bad games and running bad, or occasionally good games and running worse. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Ebene at April 4, 2006, 11:31 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Gyaawax wrote: Umm, kk will find itself against aa an average of around 6 times in Full ring over around 2500 hands."
Don't berate the guy when you obviously have no idea what you are talking about. You only get KK about once every 216 hands, so you only expect 12 KK's total over that many hand, and your telling us half of them are supposed to be up against AA???!! There is a 50% chance you will play all 2500 hands and never run into an AA w/ your KK!
KK vs AA 7x over 2500 hands is nearing the realm of impossible. If this really happened, and if we can get a few more examples like this, then this is pretty damning evidence that Empire is rigged. I ran the numbers - the chance of getting 7 or more KK vs AA matchups in 2500 hands is .00008.
So lets say all 5000 players on Empire this weekend all played 2500 hands to whore out their bonus - the chance that ANY of them had 7 KK vs. AA is less than 4%.
But are you sure you counted right? Maybe it hap... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Wadaphuic at April 4, 2006, 11:11 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | I've finished down from my play from the last two reloads, but that's because of a combination of playing too much, not adjusting my game to suit the table, bad play on my part and being beaten by better players...
Sure, I had the usual suckout hands where my flopped set is beaten by a higher flopped set or my flopped straight is beaten by a runner, runner flush, but everyone experiences that kind of shit.
Once I moved to full ring, only two tabled, and adjusted my game the bleeding stopped...
Not saying that you're a poor player but remember that every bonus whore on the planet is there... u can't play the same as you do on Stars. By playing too much, playing tired and 4-tabling against TAG whores you are asking for pain...
_________________
To Alcohol - the cause of- and solution to- all of life's problems.
Homer | | Static Link |
| Posted by: atherm at April 4, 2006, 10:22 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Neuroxic77 wrote: This time I was up $100 but I had to hit quads 3 times to make that money . The way I see it you only make a little money on your big hands. But you loose more when they get beat So,, all your looking to do is tread water and hope a TAG slips on one of your big hands. I didn't make a dollar for the last 300 hands I had to clear. But I did place 10 in the freeroll to cash in $5.
I didn't play poker for 3 days afterwards my game is way to tight after grinding it out on Empire.
It's players like you that made this bonus so incredibly easy. I'm usually a TPA. But for this bonus I went near maniac untill someone played back at me. And for the most part, nobody would fight me. I was winning so many small and medium pots that its staggering. Ended up making $250 on top of my first $200 bonus playing 50nl. And then $371 on top of my 2nd $200 bonus when doing it for my girlfriend. Learn to adjust your play. Where does it say when you're playing a tight table, that you sho... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: cefis21 at April 4, 2006, 8:55 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | | I F***ing love Empire. It is my favorite whoring site. I only play omaha PL and find the site full of people who dont know how to play it. If I thought praying would help stop the future changes to the site , I'd go to church everyday. Please , Please dont take my Empire away | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Alphaunit1 at April 4, 2006, 8:21 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | 2,313 hands
AA - 8
KK - 13
QQ - 7
JJ - 16
TT - 12
Nothing out of the ordinary. A little light on AA and QQ, but nothing out of the statistical norm.
Dude, you seriously need to learn about variance. Nothing you have described is anything more than just a really shitty run of cards. I've had the same thing happen to me multiple times - it's why it's called "gambling". You will get the ass end of the probability curve on occassion, that's life. Screaming that the site is rigged is just insanely stupid, and really makes you look the fool. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Pokerpop at April 4, 2006, 6:20 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | I didn't see anything unusual here. I took some bad beats but laid a few on other players on 1-2 FL, 6-max. I didn't run into many fish, the play was definitely above average. That is what is making this a tough bonus IMO, tough players not bad cards.
Neuroxic, I hear you. I have taken a two-day break after clearing this bonus because I am fried from grinding it out. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Neuroxic77 at April 4, 2006, 5:10 am | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | This time I was up $100 but I had to hit quads 3 times to make that money . The way I see it you only make a little money on your big hands. But you loose more when they get beat So,, all your looking to do is tread water and hope a TAG slips on one of your big hands. I didn't make a dollar for the last 300 hands I had to clear. But I did place 10 in the freeroll to cash in $5.
I didn't play poker for 3 days afterwards my game is way to tight after grinding it out on Empire. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Gyaawax at April 3, 2006, 11:22 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | Umm, kk will find itself against aa an average of around 6 times in Full ring over around 2500 hands. So, if your talking about winning $50 on an instant lottery ticket, you're about right. (and the kk will win 1 or 2 of those hands, so it's not all that bad) (oh yeah, that just adds credence to juice factor, the aces getting busted, lol)
More importantly, there are millions of million to 1 shots, thus they happen all the time. If 1 2 3 4 5 6 ever comes up in a Lotto, people will go crazy about it, even though it has the same chance as say 4 8 15 16 23 42. (Ok, people would probably go crazy about that one too)
Personaly though, I love people that don't truly understand varience almost as much as I love those who think HoldEm is a 2 or 5 card game.[/quote]
WE REALLY REALLY need to work on ur math here buddy...i love how people talk about stats and varience like they know what they are talking about...hahaha...first of all...the odds of aa and kk clashing in a full ring game ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: dalyspub at April 3, 2006, 10:28 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | | I was up about $80 with about 150 raked hands to go. Left it to the last minute today to clear the final 150, no problem I thought until the site crashed. Had to play 4 tables of 6max to clear 150 raked in an hour not my cup of tea as I hate 6max. Lost $70 doing that . | | Static Link |
| Posted by: willpower102 at April 3, 2006, 7:48 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | excellet post!
yes, empire is nuts. No it's not rigged. It's just as bad / good as any other site. I did see crazy hands constantly on empire the past two days. But i guess that's what happens when you play 3000 hands in 2 days. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: xaiviax at April 3, 2006, 3:54 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | | Gyaawax wrote: I've lost KK to AA 7 times now...if i wasnt playing 25NL or 50NL i could fold that hand, but knowing most people are bad enough to reraise with qq and ak, which has happend also, i refuse to fold that hand at these limits....however...not exactly sure what the odds of aa and kk showing down are, but im pretty sure that 7 times in say 2500 hands (1400 raked), is almost as likely as winning the lottery...so i wont be shy and beat around the bush...the cards are juiced, it is quite evident that they are...and anyone with an ego trip about not taking part in something they "feel/know" is fixed, is a tool...face it this is big business...and its gambling, integrity is not at its highest...now i still cleared 100 ouf ot the 200...so its all good, i aint greedy, but losing over 200 in 25/50NL with kk is pretty unacceptable...not to mention how many i was dealt qq -aa...over 50 im sure of it...and the fact sets drop like candy, is just more evidence, i dont mind though cause if you ar... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Gyaawax at April 3, 2006, 3:26 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | | I've lost KK to AA 7 times now...if i wasnt playing 25NL or 50NL i could fold that hand, but knowing most people are bad enough to reraise with qq and ak, which has happend also, i refuse to fold that hand at these limits....however...not exactly sure what the odds of aa and kk showing down are, but im pretty sure that 7 times in say 2500 hands (1400 raked), is almost as likely as winning the lottery...so i wont be shy and beat around the bush...the cards are juiced, it is quite evident that they are...and anyone with an ego trip about not taking part in something they "feel/know" is fixed, is a tool...face it this is big business...and its gambling, integrity is not at its highest...now i still cleared 100 ouf ot the 200...so its all good, i aint greedy, but losing over 200 in 25/50NL with kk is pretty unacceptable...not to mention how many i was dealt qq -aa...over 50 im sure of it...and the fact sets drop like candy, is just more evidence, i dont mind though cause if you arent raising ur monsters... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: tornan at April 3, 2006, 3:18 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | | I've lost my arse in the same fashion over the last two bonuses as well. I'd be surprised if there was anything fishy going on there. But maybe the different styles of players are changing it up. If the majority of players are playing good cards then bad beats will appear much more often. There are still some maniacal looking playing, but not a whole lot of fish. I know that I'm not gonna hurry to play there ever again. I was raking like 20-30% of my hands which was just ridiculous. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Addemon at April 3, 2006, 3:07 pm | | Topic: anybody winning at empire? Forum: Bonus Whores | | not suggesting that they 'juice the cards'.. just looking to find out if anybody else was getting the same results... it maybe that i have to change my playing style for this site.. specially when they offer such a nice bonus and the tables are full of whores.. | | Static Link |
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