| Posted by: Vittel at July 5, 2002, 11:44 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by KM:
Lucky Bets
If you read their "latest news" on the casino web sight (bottom right) they mentioned they moved their server from Antigua to Curacao for technical reasons.
That sounds kinda weak and I guess unless they were located in the USA or Great Britain AND MONITORED/INSPECTED by some governmental agency, I will never trust them.
Their location, as well as almost all online casinos make a stronger case for rigging generally. Online gambling makes it easier for problem gamblers to gamble and they are the ones who are most likely to be taken by rigging AND ARE MOST LIKELY TO OVERLOOK RIGGING TO GET THEIR MONEY BACK (at least try to).
KM
Casinos based in Curacao ARE licenced and monitored by the government of the Netherlands Antilles - some of the best and most reliable operations are based there. The high reputation of Curacao, the reliability of available bandwidth and the proximity of first class service ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: NewbieDoobieDo at July 5, 2002, 10:01 am | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
Everyone talks about online casinos as if they were sitting at a table in MGM in Las Vegas and a human was dealing cards from a shoe.
Folks .... ALL THIS IS IS S-O-F-T-W-A-R-E.
Software is created by people called programmers. They WRITE software.
Hint Hint ...
Wake up and smell the coffee.
Knock knock ... anyone home?
Even in a REAL casino you rarely can be a gambler and win. (Most who say they do are liars).
All you are doing is playing a ideo game folks .. this ain't for real. It's a game. There are books devoted to inside tips on cheating ideo games. How can anyone believe that any of these places are like a REAL human dealt game of BJ or whatever. There's probably some programmer sitting in his home laughing his ass off.
Maybe that's why there is no regulation?
Without a bonus it just ain't worth it. It's your only "equalizer."
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| Posted by: damiandunlap at July 3, 2002, 7:45 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by Dann:
damian, we've already proven you to be a liar. As far as I'm concerned, you're no longer worth replying to.
dann, leave me be and i will leave u be, u dum basterd
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| Posted by: KM at July 3, 2002, 7:20 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
Lucky Bets
If you read their "latest news" on the casino web sight (bottom right) they mentioned they moved their server from Antigua to Curacao for technical reasons.
That sounds kinda weak and I guess unless they were located in the USA or Great Britain AND MONITORED/INSPECTED by some governmental agency, I will never trust them.
Their location, as well as almost all online casinos make a stronger case for rigging generally. Online gambling makes it easier for problem gamblers to gamble and they are the ones who are most likely to be taken by rigging AND ARE MOST LIKELY TO OVERLOOK RIGGING TO GET THEIR MONEY BACK (at least try to).
KM
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| Posted by: KM at July 3, 2002, 7:16 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
Dann,
I'm not an idiot. Hit 15/16 when I should, don't buy insurance (except bug bet with a 20 to me), don't chase losses (but have done so and gotten burned - part of my original post), etc etc. Don't portray me as a goof.
I didn't ask you about your bank account, I asked how you made money by not paying attention to what was going on.... YOUR ANSWER is that you are a bonus oriented player, you answered my question. You don't play BJ to make money, you deposit money, get a bonus, defend you balance and withdraw after betting the required amount.
You are not a BJ player, you must be a Dane?..just kidding.
Remember I'm not complaining about the way BJ is generally played at WH, I'm talking about the results when someone with some skills and experience tries to make money the old fashioned way....winning it... and get burned by software that just about iolates the laws of physics.
I've admitted my weakness, emotion, it has cost me. What I FINALLY GOT TIRED OF A... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: joeyl at July 3, 2002, 12:40 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
The arguement that i've had a load of bad cards,so i must be due some good cards is flawed..
I dare say most of us have fallen for it at sometime or another..Does'nt make it any less flawed though..
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| Posted by: caruso at July 3, 2002, 12:25 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
When I bet more, I should win more, since I have already lost more than I should
The problem here is the old confusion between the non existent Law Of Averages and its real life counterpart, Law Of Large Numbers; the LOA says that "events even out" - which is an insidious approximation to the reality of the LOLN, which doesn't say anything of the kind.
I believe Las Vegas was, in part, built on this misunderstanding.
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| Posted by: Geordie at July 3, 2002, 11:53 am | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by KM:
All I can say is that I stick to the rules and use my brain to judge when I should be more....from what I have just explained, I obviously don't get (and shouldn't) bet more when I'm losing much more often than I'm winning. WHAT IS REALLY THE PROBLEM is that WHEN I DO BET MORE in the FEWER THAN IS TO BE EXPECTED OPPORTUNITIES TO DO SO, I seem to lose even more?
THIS IS THE CRUX OF MY "CONCLUSION."
When I bet more, I should win more, since I have already lost more than I should AND WHEN I BUMP MY BETS, I SHOULD BE WINNING MORE BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RESULTS.
I'll keep trying to pin down my points and position.... I'm really trying to finally get this aruguement down to the what we actually experience rather than some theoretical projection....I'm a player, not a professor.
KM
Here comes one of the 'High and Mighty'
KM,How can you identify opportunities to raise your bet when the on... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: KM at July 3, 2002, 11:00 am | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
In response to DANN....
How do you play BJ?
If you don't track wins/losses, take advantage of streaks, trends, etc, how can a player make money?
If you toss out all systems, methods, strategies, progressions both positive and negative, then what do you base you betting on?
If the house advantage is against the player AND the player always flat bets, then the player will lose.
All I have tried to do is point out that when I have tried to increase my bets to take advantage of CURRENT and IMMEDIATE PAST RESULTS (knowing there are no guarantees that they will continue) in a lot, and definitely MOST CASES, I've gotten burned.
I'm telling you that online casino software is "reactive." That's it. It is simply reacting to my actions.
THUS, the casino/software/industry is rigged.
AND... I would like people like you to discuss the issue without dismissing the messenger.
KM
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| Posted by: magnek at July 3, 2002, 10:14 am | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
KM, I explain it to myself this way:
they are cheating. A little. There is no need to program false patterns when you can discreetly cheat and never get caught. They may be removing a few 10's or adding a few 5's. Perfect play will get you to about .9% HA at microgaming regardless of the thoeretical HA.
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| Posted by: Dann at July 3, 2002, 9:42 am | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
When in the hell did this board get so infested with idiots?
Progressions, systems, streaks, patterns? There's a sucker born every minute, and for some reason, they flock to WOL.
It's no wonder why the casino industry can thrive with these people playing.
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| Posted by: KM at July 3, 2002, 7:18 am | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
The whole debate is the number to put into your X%? What should X be? .5% 3% 5% 10%?
For those of us who play online, the average number for X is more than .5% -1.5%
How do you explain that? More directly on point, how do you explain a much larger number than .5% -1.5%?
KM
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| Posted by: magnek at July 3, 2002, 7:03 am | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
All this talk about patterns are rather comical. A pattern repeats itself. Period. If you find a pattern that doesn't repeat itself when you up your bet then you have not found a pattern. Casinos don't care if you up your bet every fourth time you lose four in a row after being dealt matching fours. It is all one large run wherein the house will keep x% of all wagers. Caruso, while angering players with his logic, has been trying to drill this fact into some ery thick heads. There is absolutely no logic in superstitions.
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| Posted by: KM at July 3, 2002, 6:48 am | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
About the subject of millions of hands being simulated to "judge" the fairness of BJ.
I don't play millions of hands, nor flat bet every hand, thus I have to form some conclusion based onnly on the results I personally experience.
When I play online, I don't wait around for a million hands... I judge the projected outcome for a session by the first 10 hands....I've found this to be a ery accurate way of predicting outcome. What I have found is that the overwhelming outcome is about 9 out of 10 sessions start as losers and end up losers, simply based on more losses than wins. I play basic strategy, so I'm not doing anything "not by the book."
What I'm experiencing and have from day one is a "house advantage" resulting in a lot more losses than .5 - 1.5%. I may sit down and add them all up someday, but my personal results are far worse than is to be expected, all things being expected.
SO WHAT IS GOING ON? Am I condemed since I don't play ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: garyzimmer at July 2, 2002, 8:55 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
KM--
I've monitored this site for some time. The two types of posting participants are either players OR people with conflicts of interest.
I agree with you! Others do as well so don't be dissuaded by those who merely 'sound' like the 'definitive' last word on the subject.
If these ax grinding experts looked inward for one moment of introspective truth, they would admit that they don't actually know whether there is such a thing as patterns, whether the 'software' is rigged or tweaked, and that there is no investigatory agency in existence capable of determining whether Price Waterhouse has a grain of integrity.
Casino executives admit they don't have absolute proof that the software is not rigged. How could some lofty sounding board pundit know for sure?
Robotic denial that anything could be wrong in the paradise of the incorruptible gaming industry reminds me of the airplane bulging with passengers, flown totally by electronics and the hint of panic among ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: tedm at July 2, 2002, 6:25 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
KM
It is a leap to say that since something can be done, then it is being done.
Blackjack, sir, is a negative expectation game (for the most part) and you will lose money if you play long enough. OF course there will be winners along the way and they will be much more common than in a game like Stud Poker where the HA is much higher.
That said, I would like to hear your guess as to the percentage of players who employ basic strategy. Heck, I make an incredible number of mistakes almost always by accident.
It is no suprise for me to see that the payback for BJ in a MG casino was audited at about 98.5% where the expected payback under perfect strategy is almost 100% This is hundreds of thousands of hands mind you and I believe reflective of the casino's players not any misrepresentations in the software.
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| Posted by: KM at July 2, 2002, 6:08 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
I guess I'm either Chicken Little or Columbus....
I've monitored this site for some time. The two types of posting participants are either players OR people with conflicts of interest.
No one of the latter froup ever acknowledges anything but RANDOMNESS and poo pahs any accusation that online software can track a players betting style and react to it.
I for once would like to hear just one of the online apologists acknowledge that there is the possibility one of the onlines is rigged. Better yet, how about the reality that ANY SOFTWARE can be written TO DO ANYTHING.... so why wouldn't they use that reality to track say a player's weaknesses and explout them.
All I'm saying is that WH is good at reacting to my play/betting.
KM
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| Posted by: vickinz at July 2, 2002, 5:25 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
Caruso: Sometimes patterns can be amazingly regular throughout most of an 8-deck shoe in baccarat on land. Online, they exist for me for only ery short patches, so I take them into account along with other factors.
Yesterday, I won 6 isolated $100 bets (with no big bet losses) while betting $2-$25 the rest of the time. But I only get away with it a few times the first time I do it at any online casino, never thereafter.
I have always won $100-$1000 bets relying on these patterns under certain conditions. It's when all the factors aren't present, that I lose them. All I can say is that without my winning big bets I would not have had my bigger wins.
I agree that BS and gradually increasing bets give more consistent wins overall, but I think I would have won less, but probably more often. We all find our own styles and I go with what works for me.
I'm not saying patterns are there all the time, nor am I saying others should rely on them; they are not givens. But I find ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: caruso at July 2, 2002, 1:00 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
if winning big on strategic bets while betting small the rest of the time - they'd be broke if patterns could be relied on to win biggies indefinitely.
Vicki - what is a strategic bet?
<U>THERE ARE NO PATTERNS</U>; seeing patterns is seeing faces in the clouds; that's why patterns can't be "relied upon" to "win biggies" - they aren't there in the first place! That's why casinos don't need to programme the software to defeat Strategic Bets based on Patterns - because all bets are the same; it's the Strategist who's at fault, for thinking that there was ever an implementable strategy to begin with.
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| Posted by: caruso at July 2, 2002, 12:48 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
You have already started one thread about your highly unscientific accusations against a ery reputable company - is there really any need to open up another
Took the words out of my mouth; when your argument is nonsensical you don't improve it by repeating it; it just looks sillier and sillier.
When you gamble your supposed to lose; people seem to miss this, somehow.
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| Posted by: eek at July 2, 2002, 12:12 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
I dont think that the income from netgaming is paltry, even for these big corporate names.
I recall reading that net-bets were almost 10% of Ladbrokes turnover and growing fast, and Ladbrokes aint some piss-ant company.
They(the big boys) also have extra privileges with banking systems like switch card and credit card deposits/withdrawals which are an ideal extra draw for gamblers.
eek
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| Posted by: Sirius at July 1, 2002, 9:36 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
Doesn't the US software have detailed player logs like the UK software? I played around 8,000 hands a few months ago with a 20% bonus and cashed out around $5000 profit. The log file was huge even when compressed. It is easier than most people think to be able to analyse the logs to tell if anything fishy like that is going on.
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| Posted by: croupier at July 1, 2002, 9:24 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
KM: You have already started one thread about your highly unscientific accusations against a ery reputable company - is there really any need to open up another?
WH floated on the UK stock exchange last month, do you really think they'd have risked the float (and now their company) to make a few $$$'s on the net.
What they make on the net is nothing compared to their land based business, it's simply not good business sense to screw the punters when you have a land based setup like thiers.
In addition to that, I also once took a $8 BJ bet up to $200 using a progression - won nearly $3000 from a run of 14 wins (lots of doubles & splits).
I'd been playing the exact same progression for a couple of hours, and had used it on previous days, so if they were tracking me then they would definitly have know by 'system'
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| Posted by: Mrracetrack at July 1, 2002, 9:09 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
Gee Woody,
I'll bet you're "shocked" by the
response your post got.
Damian never met a thread where
he couldn't "fit in" a plug for
W.H.
[This message has been edited by Mrracetrack (edited 07-01-2002).]
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| Posted by: Woody0 at July 1, 2002, 8:33 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by KM:
William Hill ... has been using ... a "trap" where the cards come up in a unique, consistent, predictable pattern ...
Yup, its the unique pattern that's a killer!
"or an operator is able to play against a player s. a server."
Just the same as they tighten up and loosen the slots .
Don't these casinos have any shame? They do this just so we get PO'd and bet like crazy to get our money back.
[This message has been edited by Woody0 (edited 07-01-2002).]
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| Posted by: KM at July 1, 2002, 8:25 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
I agree.....just a warning....I sense, as I said on the other topic post, that this is a relatively recent event for me and my play...They may have really figured me out..weaknesses.
As I have said, my biggest problem is emotion...I get pissed when I realize what they appear to be up to and then try to get "even."
Back to the grindstone.
KM
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| Posted by: vickinz at July 1, 2002, 8:13 pm | | Topic: Beware Pattern Traps at William Hill Forum: Winner Online |
This applies to most other software I have played on too. But one expects software to counteract players tendencies, if winning big on strategic bets while betting small the rest of the time - they'd be broke if patterns could be relied on to win biggies indefinitely.
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