| Posted by: Mainlander at August 7, 2002, 8:05 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
kx little boy, can u shut your phucking mouth up. i have been lurking this board long time and never read a thread like this, non-ending more than 10 days claiming i'm right you are wrong, my mama & dad something like that. Don't you feel bored, not disgusting with yourself? i hope to learn something new other than you self-serving creature. i don't give a shiit whose right or not, we have the answers already, we can analyse, no one needs your theory, not yours anyway, listen to colly, back off, you sun of a beach!!!
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| Posted by: KX at August 7, 2002, 6:34 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Colly and PG; Jepp I agree. This is getting far too stupid. I advice those of you who STILL haven´t got it to go read The Gamemasters reply at the GameMaster forum. If you still haven´t understood after that, please ask him to explain it to you...
I´m going to give some final answers to Wave who does his best to discredit me. You can´t find anything wrong in the current thread so you go looking in others? You must really be desperate...
Sessions can be grouped, therefore ending up there twice in a row will be that probability squared¡K. Big Laughs!
How would you calculate the probabilty of flipping three tails in a row with a coin? FYI it would be 0,5^3. The exact same calculation can be used for ending up in a tail of the normal distribution curve a certain number of consecutive times.
See? How confused & clueless this Master Degree is? "My total EV", LMAO!
Ohh, no... Not another one who´s looked up EV in the dictionary and has never had a clu... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Wave at August 7, 2002, 3:07 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
OK, American PhD, I envy.
You kept making confusions. Are you only good at calculations? But this time, obviously you have not confused, you are plain mistaken.
Alright, what does it mean to say that most do understand that the odds of a casino game will not improve if they play longer? All the same, that is, if one plays shorter time(larger bets), the ODDS of a CASINO GAME will improve. What does the ODDS of a CASINO GAME have anything to do with your playing shorter or longer, dummy?
You kept telling others that they misunderstood things afterwards in order to conceal your foolishness. Are you that retarded in making statements?
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| Posted by: Wave at August 7, 2002, 2:44 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
To expose further to all lurkers how "intelligent" this mathematician KX(who had all the mathematicians in the world to stand behind him, WOW again!!!) is, I did a little search on his great "wisdom" in the past thread, "Why minimize Variance":
"Let´s say 3 results were -1,5 sds, 1 was -2 sds and 1 was -2,5 sds then we have a probability of approx:
0,06^3 * 0,02 * 0,006 = 2,6 E -8
This is so low it could be considered almost impossible.
"Sessions can be grouped... If you have a certain probability of ending up in "the left end" of the normal distribution the probability of ending up there twice in a row will be that probability squared."
3 different results, MULTIPLICATION of 3 SDs to arrive at 0,06^3 * 0,02 * 0,006 = 2,6 E -8! Sessions can be grouped, therefore ending up there twice in a row will be that probability squared¡K. Big Laughs! Even a grade 13 won't commit such mistakes.
Another quote of his f... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Pensive Gerbil at August 7, 2002, 2:15 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by Wave:
Oh, WHAT THE HELL, PG you are a PhD? What went wrong with the present education system?
Remember your thread to Max? (in Joker's Wild also) You said,"However, I think few do not understand that the odds of a casino game will not improve if they play longer."That is, if one plays shorter time(larger bets), the ODDS of a CASINO GAME will improve. WOW!!! See??? And because of this stupidity you immediately apologised to Max....
Though America's secondary education system is the envy of the world, our primary education system has sadly fallen into some disrepute. Among the skills that many children appear to struggle with is reading comprehension.
In fairness, sentences which have a double negative structure can be confusing. Let me help you. The phrase "Few do not understand that" is similar in meaning to: "Most understand that."
Sarcasm is another concept with which some struggle.
-PG
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| Posted by: KX at August 7, 2002, 2:02 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Wave; Do you really lack the ability to read? Go read at the GMs forum and you´ll see that both GM (there) and the Wiz (here) agrees to the fact that the theory is correct. I have confidence in myself, but ofcourse it has merit that GM and Wiz also agrees...
My guess is that you haven´t even read the thread. You said before that you have had an argument with me elsewhere. Probably you were so embarassed that you just have to get even at any cost now...
Read the Jokers Wild thread again and you´ll see that HKG now agrees to the theory.
I´m in no way trying to show any smartness, I just wanted to make my point clear. And since you and Caruso doesn´t understand the evidence provided by me and PG I thought that at least GM and Wiz would be enough for you to give up. Unfortunately it wasn´t.
I have never discredited the Wiz in his efforts to prove the rigged Casino Bar software. His study was ery good. I just proposed an alternative method. Such a test would have shown t... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Wave at August 7, 2002, 1:13 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Oh, WHAT THE HELL, PG you are a PhD? What went wrong with the present education system? PG is even higher than KX in academic level!!! WOW!!!
PG if you are wise enough, you should quiet up, hide your silliness. Remember your thread to Max? (in Joker's Wild also) You said,"However, I think few do not understand that the odds of a casino game will not improve if they play longer."That is, if one plays shorter time(larger bets), the ODDS of a CASINO GAME will improve. WOW!!! See??? And because of this stupidity you immediately apologised to Max that he had actually not underestimated your intelligence. A PhD level can confuse math basics like this???
But frankly, I find you cute & cool, unlike KX. Your rank is better than her/him.
[This message has been edited by Wave (edited 08-07-2002).]
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| Posted by: Wave at August 7, 2002, 12:59 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Also, the reason why I keep calling this arsshole shameless is because I remember she had more than once questioned Wizard's credibility & challenged his methodology in proving Casino Bar's rigged software (looked like she had a wiser idea), and now she takes the advantage of naming WZ to strengthen her position (falsely).
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| Posted by: Pensive Gerbil at August 7, 2002, 12:21 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by Wave:
Let this pathetic dumbarse KX with her inflating false-ego lives on. She is hopelessly uneducated, I'm sure after 10 more posts pointing out the math truth to her cluelessness.... KX is the living proof of "intelligence is not correlated with academic level."
I seem to have less patience than KX when confronted with such ignorance. I am offended by your anti-intellectual attitude. I am offended by your infantile use of feminine pronouns as an intended insult. I am not bothered by your failure to comprehend what KX and I have presented, however. In fact, the more gamblers who do not understand such concepts, the more I and others are likely to profit from them.
Pensive Gerbil, Ph.D.
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| Posted by: Wave at August 6, 2002, 6:48 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Good shots, Caruso. But your energy is spent on nowhere.
Let this pathetic dumbarse KX with her inflating false-ego lives on. She is hopelessly uneducated, I'm sure after 10 more posts pointing out the math truth to her cluelessness, she will repeat nothing but "I think you actually FINALLY have realised that you´ve got it all wrong now. You´re just so afraid of admitting being wrong you will rather embarass yourself for another 100 posts..." This is typical of a classless, distasteful face-saving type of argument trying merely to sustain.
KX had been shamelessly again & again pulling WZ & GM & her mother to her side trying to fool others who do not know because she had nothing to prove. This is typical of lack of confidence & credibility in herself. I called this shameless simply she was lowering WZ, GM to her level they certainly don't belong.
Actually, after HKG's Breakdowns in the Jokers Wild thread revealing that KX's "theory" is nothin... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Pensive Gerbil at August 6, 2002, 6:10 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by caruso:
Listen up, folks: EV is affected by bet size, and if you experience a losing session, your luck will improve subsequently; if you take nothing else from this thread, take at least these two gems. They'll make you a whole s**tload of money.
I'm glad you finally understand.
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| Posted by: KX at August 6, 2002, 4:59 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
YOU want ME to start a thread directed at the Wiz and the GM now, KX? How extraordinarily coincidental, considering that I issued just that challenge to YOU regarding your "hand correlation theory" - and you managed to come up with some ridiculous "Is RTG Streaky" nonsense. Not quite what I asked for, was it?
Before I start a thread directed at the Wiz and GM under YOUR conditions I'm afraid you're going to have to take up MY challenge to you, which was, as I recall "KX's theory of hand correlation, proving that RTG software is rigged but pays the correct percentages; GM & Wiz please respond - you've all got it wrong".
I did start a thread on the subject and I did ask them to have a look at it. What more could I do? I think you actually FINALLY have realised that you´ve got it all wrong now. You´re just so afraid of admitting being wrong you will rather embarass yourself for another 100 posts...
I wonder if your challenge to me is in any way a... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: caruso at August 6, 2002, 3:51 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
YOU want ME to start a thread directed at the Wiz and the GM now, KX? How extraordinarily coincidental, considering that I issued just that challenge to YOU regarding your "hand correlation theory" - and you managed to come up with some ridiculous "Is RTG Streaky" nonsense. Not quite what I asked for, was it?
Before I start a thread directed at the Wiz and GM under YOUR conditions I'm afraid you're going to have to take up MY challenge to you, which was, as I recall "KX's theory of hand correlation, proving that RTG software is rigged but pays the correct percentages; GM & Wiz please respond - you've all got it wrong".
I wonder if your challenge to me is in any way a response to your desparate embarrassment at being magnificently INCAPABLE of taking up mine to you?
Listen up, folks: EV is affected by bet size, and if you experience a losing session, your luck will improve subsequently; if you take nothing else from this thread, take at least t... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: yleewolf at August 6, 2002, 2:35 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by spinoza:
Caruso,
Let me try explain again. PG does *not* believe past results have bearings on future results. He is saying you always may expect the same average results according to the odds of the particular game involved. So if you perform below average in a session, you still expect average results for all future sessions, independent of your previous results. Because your expected average results for all future session are better than the below average results you just got, you might say your 'luck' or your results are likely to improve.
S.
i think the distinction needs to be made between Expected Values, Deviations from the Mean and basic Probability.
caruso cannot understand (neither can i) how you can believe that a set of poor results merits a beneficial effect on future results. this (i think) is the source of the disagreement.
surely we can clear this up by saying that there is a clear distinction between the... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: jondo at August 6, 2002, 12:36 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Exactly, remember, I play ideo poker. I'm not sure that high bet/low ariance is the key. I tend to favor the low bet/high ariance. Nothing to back that up though except personal experience.
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| Posted by: KX at August 6, 2002, 12:21 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Splitting a pair of eights, hitting a pair of eights, staying on a pair of eights s dealer 9 all have an EV but which has the highest EV and why? How many trials are needed to prove this? Variance, ariance, ariance, that is what we gamble on. It is ery unlikely that anyone will ever experience the true EV.
Still IF you would only play one single game of BJ I assume you would chose the move which would give you the highest EV...
For example, doubling your 10 s 9 will increase EV but it will also increase ariance drastically, still I´m pretty sure you would double.
Personally I don´t worry much about the ariance of betting large since I play so much I know the results will converge relatively well.
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| Posted by: jondo at August 6, 2002, 12:09 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
"Wrong and right. EV does NOT assume long run. It just tells you what the AVERAGE alue is. In the long run the ariance in the EV alue will converge towards zero and results will be exactly in accordance with EV but this does in no way mean that there is no EV of a single trial."
We can nitpik the issue again, but we were talking highest EV which assumes average which assumes long term.
Splitting a pair of eights, hitting a pair of eights, staying on a pair of eights s dealer 9 all have an EV but which has the highest EV and why? How many trials are needed to prove this? Variance, ariance, ariance, that is what we gamble on. It is ery unlikely that anyone will ever experience the true EV.
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| Posted by: KX at August 6, 2002, 11:56 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
The incorrect odds
No bonus it would take a 5 bet series to reach 3000
with bonus you always win the first bet (0 risk) 1+1=2, then 2,4,... You win a five series bet making only 4 bets= incorrect odds
Now I see what you mean... But it is not incorrect odds, it´s just odds including the alue of a promotion. The same thing applies to the example of the small bettor... Thus the EV calculations are correct.
I agree this is the easiest example, but it also produces the most dramtic results.
It does. And sure, the difference in EV will be strictly determined by how much you "dare" to increase your bets. Assuming a $100+$100 bonus changing bets from $5 to $20 will give you a large increase in EV though.
So my thinking is the difference in EV is so minimal that the real alue is Time
Agreed! The time element is even more aluable. The good thing is that we BOTH win time and EV!
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| Posted by: KX at August 6, 2002, 11:51 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
spinoza; Was that so? OK.
It´s pretty sad to see that Caruso himself once again can´t post apologies and admit errors. Instead you had to step in to clean up for him...
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| Posted by: jondo at August 6, 2002, 11:50 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
The incorrect odds
No bonus it would take a 5 bet series to reach 3000
with bonus you always win the first bet (0 risk) 1+1=2, then 2,4,... You win a five series bet making only 4 bets= incorrect odds
I agree this is the easiest example, but it also produces the most dramtic results.
So my thinking is the difference in EV is so minimal that the real alue is Time
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| Posted by: KX at August 6, 2002, 11:37 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Btw I´m still waiting for Caruso to alidate his statement of me having claimed that ALL casinos are rigged and specifically Stanley Acropolis...
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| Posted by: KX at August 6, 2002, 11:30 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Jondo;
In Pensive Gerbil's example, a comparison is made of a blackjack player betting his own money trying to win a bonus to a double or nothing player who is getting favorable incorrect odds.ie always winning the first bet. Double or nothing has a higher ev.in the example.
What do you mean by "favourable incorrect odds"? PG uses an example with a HA of 1%. This is a pretty normal alue I would say. And no, his example does not assume that you always win the first bet. He just shows the probabiltiy of:
a.) Winning enough bets in a row to reach the wagering req. (in his example $3000).
b) Losing once in this sequence.
a and b are complementary actions in this case. This means that the probability of the two adds up to 100%. Using this example the EV-calculations are easy.
The problem with the theory is that it assumes a large number of trials to have any alue. EV does suggest the long run. I doubt that there will be enough casinos now and in... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: KX at August 6, 2002, 11:07 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Glad to see that "high roller bonuses only" KX is back from her nice summer house with Momsy & Pop. As we know, brains and wealth are inextricably linked.
I´m still male and not female. But I´m not surprised this still hasn´t got through to you since you STILL haven´t understood the basic theory which me, PG, The Gamemaster, Wiz etc. etc. agrees to.
The argument is now NOT, as was originally suggested, that higher bets increases EV per se; KX dropped that one sharpish after suffering humiliating ridicule at the hands of all & sundry
I have NOT dropped anything. Is there any idea telling you not to put words in my mouth? You seem to have a ery hard time understanding anything... Higher bets DOES increase the EV OF A PROMOTION. This is what I´ve said all along and it still applies wether you understand it or not.
The only circumstances in which The KX Theory Of Wheel Re-invention is applicable are circumstances that do not exist.
As said earli... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: jondo at August 6, 2002, 10:46 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
I guess I'll jump back in here with my position on all this. One must be brave at times to take a stance and face the opposition. So being the gutless wonder that I am, I'll take the middle road.
First, let me say that all of this should be in fun and nothing personal should be meant or taken.
Second, I am no mathematician, just a lowly VP player that understands EV in the terms of "what is the best play."
In Pensive Gerbil's example, a comparison is made of a blackjack player betting his own money trying to win a bonus to a double or nothing player who is getting favorable incorrect odds.ie always winning the first bet. Double or nothing has a higher ev.in the example.
The problem with the theory is that it assumes a large number of trials to have any alue. EV does suggest the long run. I doubt that there will be enough casinos now and in the future to credit any gain to EV and not just to ariance. Volatility comes into play mighty heavily here.
<... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: caruso at August 6, 2002, 9:51 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
(Happy to oblige you, ma'am; I was going to get around to this at some point, anyway.)
Glad to see that "high roller bonuses only" KX is back from her nice summer house with Momsy & Pop. As we know, brains and wealth are inextricably linked.
To cut to the chase, there are only two points here:
1) The argument as you are NOW putting it forward is not new.
2) It is TOTALLY inapplicable.
The argument is now NOT, as was originally suggested, that higher bets increases EV per se; KX dropped that one sharpish after suffering humiliating ridicule at the hands of all & sundry; the changed argument is that GIVEN PARTICULAR CONDITIONS, iz a iz, a promotion is granted after EITHER a) a certain amount of wagering has taken place or b) you bust out your deposit, then higher bets will effectively increase your EV - in so far as you will, on occasions, receive your bonus for LESS wagering - because you bust out. Money for less.
That is quite corre... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Syd at August 4, 2002, 5:11 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Excuse me for buttin in here.....I'm actually enjoying this exchange. I just ate a whole bag of popcorn just reading page 3! It's got the makings of a thriller with the added bonus of a cute gerbil.
Carry on!
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| Posted by: KX at August 4, 2002, 3:58 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
I have now read the thread in Jokers Wild as well. Nice to see that the Wiz has also agreed to the theories and that was obviously what was needed for HK to see that he was wrong.
Once again it´s only stubborn old Caruso left...
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| Posted by: KX at August 4, 2002, 3:17 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Your theory is neither new nor applicable; new to YOU, fair enough - not quite the same, though. And since I cannot think of a single example of an online casino promotion for which it WOULD be applicable (bonuses granted after playthrough requirements have NOT been met, ie. after busting out), the theory is worthless.
Ehh? You really are clueless sometimes but this must be a joke right? The theories applies to a ast majority of promotions!
Most promotions is based on you depositing a certain amount which will IMMEDIATELY be matched with a bonus BEFORE having done any wagering. Exeptions for which the theory is not applicable are for example some RTG casinos which will only credit bonuses AFTER half of the total wagering req. have been met.
Do you think a theory is "new" if most online casino promotion departments design their offers to INVALIDATE such a theory?
Almost none do, the theory applies to ALL Cryptologic casinos, almost ALL MGS-casinos, most RTG c... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: KX at August 4, 2002, 3:05 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
I bet 100:1 that KX will soon be reappearing claiming that he is with his handbook computer pad & wireless broadband online.
You guys really seem paranoid sometimes... What´s so strange with going on acation in the summer? I believe most ppl do.
Yes, Woody, he was calculating some financial math how to get the best out of a bonus under certain bonus conditions. And this was what GM has agreed with him.
Nope. Wrong again. This has ery little to do with financial mathematics. Also GM has agreed not only with the correctness of the the theory but also with the definition I´ve used. Read what he has said at the forum once again. He also talks about the "EV of a promotion" using the exact same definition as I do.
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| Posted by: KX at August 4, 2002, 2:47 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Alright, now I´m back from a nice week in our summer home. Sad to see that the GameMasters words are not enough to get some ppl to admit their errors.
I urge you to go read the Gamemasters last post in this issue and you´ll see he fully agrees with mine/PGs theory.
KX's new contention:
the EV of a certain bonus gets higher if you place large bets.
KX's original contention:
you´ll on average bet LESS when placing big bets (since you´ll reach ruin more frequently) thus increasing your EV.
Clear enough, I think.
Clear enough and still you don´t get it? Both quotes are entierely correct and there´s no change in what I´m saying.
My, my, she's been on the "point of departure" some time, wouldn't you say?
He that is, and yes there were some hours before we left. So?
Possibly hoping noone would post for a while, then forget all about it, wouldn't you say?
Heh, I´m happy to post in the subject, once again... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Pensive Gerbil at July 30, 2002, 8:43 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by caruso:
the theory is worthless.
My most recent posts on The GameMaster's messageboard begin to touch upon the utility of this theory to online advantage gambling. All are welcome to participate in the discussion at www.gamemasteronline.com
-PG
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| Posted by: HKGambler at July 29, 2002, 1:33 pm | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
KX, PG-
I have started a new thread, "Breakdowns of the Mysteries of Betting Large, Higher EV"
Edited: This thread is now removed to Jokers Wild.
[This message has been edited by HKGambler (edited 08-01-2002).]
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| Posted by: HKGambler at July 29, 2002, 8:13 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
PG- PG- thanks for the heads up for your post at Gamemaster Forum.
As I said many times. You & KX made a mistake in the definition & application of EV. You were calculating some financial math how to get the best out of a bonus under certain bonus conditions as I said in my last post.
Under your scheme of betting bigger bets(Player B), obviously he's bound to wager less in total, surely lose less, no news.
I'll try to break down your calculations TM.
[This message has been edited by HKGambler (edited 07-29-2002).]
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| Posted by: Pensive Gerbil at July 29, 2002, 3:37 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by caruso:
Your theory is neither new nor applicable
I never claimed that the theory was new or that it was mine.
As for its applicability, I will leave it to others to explain. Unlike KX, I do not enjoy banging my head against walls.
-PG
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| Posted by: caruso at July 29, 2002, 3:07 am | | Topic: casinokingdom is stealer Forum: Winner Online |
Your theory is neither new nor applicable; new to YOU, fair enough - not quite the same, though. And since I cannot think of a single example of an online casino promotion for which it WOULD be applicable (bonuses granted after playthrough requirements have NOT been met, ie. after busting out), the theory is worthless. The reason these conditions will be rarely met is that casinos are sa y enough to realize that such conditions are eminently exploitable, and so their playing requirements are set in stone, with no caveats attached.
Do you think a theory is "new" if most online casino promotion departments design their offers to INVALIDATE such a theory?
Also, and rather more relevantly, bear in mind that this was NOT the original contention, which was that bet size affects EV (bullsh*t); when THIS was trounced, your alter-ego decided to change the argument, claiming "take 2" as 1) the original argument and 2) her "own".
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