| Posted by: Gamblegirl at September 15, 2003, 6:56 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
For fools rush in where angels fear to tread
Distrustful sense with modest caution speaks,
It still looks home, and short excursions makes;
But rattling nonsense in full olleys breaks,
And, never shocked, and never turned aside.
Bursts out, resistless, with a thundering tide,
--Alexander Pope,"An Essay on Criticism" 1711
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: caruso at September 14, 2003, 3:44 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by Tester:
TrueGambler has just released the BJ addendum.
And Friend Kish has gone and posted a totally spurious, misleading thread. What's up Kish? Wasn't the one thread enough for you? Now you've gone and split the discussion in two.
How idiotic is that.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: joeyl at September 14, 2003, 4:33 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Mary.
I will wait until 2005 okay.
For the Brits to regulate.
I was an advocate of that too but i was clutching at straws.
Government regulated from the U'K means you can guarantee it's corrupt.
You wait & see.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: joeyl at September 14, 2003, 4:26 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Pardon me GV,i will shut up eh?
""I remember a proverb saying something like: The more you know, the more you know what you still don’t know.""
Where did you read that?
When?
Why?
In what context was it written?
Who wrote it?
Why?
What for?
Thier point of reference was?
Or was it him or just a her,not them?
How did you collect that piece of wisdom?
Show me how.
Can i use it too please?
Pretty please?
May i quote your source?
The methodology?
You point of reference?
Do not think i am clouding the issue of the masterful post but i believe nothing until every t is crossed,i dotted,backed up by expert analysis and the rest of the damn 9 yards this has become....
You may not answer,it will mean you are honest.
You may take 2 weeks and that is fine,no impatience.
yadiyadiyaah.... total bunkum and methodo... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: caruso at September 14, 2003, 3:09 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by Greek Viking:
Yes, it’s frustrating that the experts don’t just follow the opinion among players.
That's nothing to do with anything, and you well know it isn't. Was that smart-alec post really worth duplicating across two forums? LOL, maybe not.
That said, had the GM followed the..."opinion" of this particular player, he might have been saved a little embarrassment, so maybe you've got a point.
Mary's point about welcoming all possible prodding and poking so that the ultimate indication is unquestionable is well made indeed.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Greek Viking at September 14, 2003, 2:14 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Yes, it’s frustrating that the experts don’t just follow the opinion among players. But I don’t think it’s a conspiracy.
I remember a proverb saying something like: The more you know, the more you know what you still don’t know.
Let’s welcome TrueGambler’s addendum.
[This message has been edited by Greek Viking (edited 09-14-2003).]
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: The Original Mary at September 13, 2003, 10:27 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
How long must players wait for a casino to come online that they can fully trust to be fair?
I think the timetable right now for the UK to regulate online gaming is the beginning of 2005.
Lasseter's, the only online casino under the watch of the Northern Territory of Australia, is ery likely fair. They are changing software, so their strange infinite deck blackjack will be history.
I think many companies found out that it wasn't as easy to go online as they thought. Consider the hacker attack that cost Cryptologic eight million dollars. MGM Mirage, Kerzner, Aspinalls, Tattersalls... all folded. The combination of software requiring encryption and stability, unique marketing challenges, and novice regulatory regimes make it a tough industry to enter and stay afloat operating honestly.
Two weeks is not much of a wait, Joey, for a new form of oversight that has the potential to bring down one of the industry's biggest suppliers. I want to see TG's work beaten on rocks, ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: joeyl at September 13, 2003, 9:34 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Quote the wizard. """I don't have any set definition of a blacklisted, or rogue, casino. Cheating will definitely get a casino on it. So will not paying winners."""
(Sorry Cindy,nothing personal.)Quote Slycin """And you want a definition from Microgaming about what a rogue casino is??? What makes you think they're going to answer to you?
Original Mary quote""" Software that does not mathematically replicate the behavior of the games found in regulated land operations; ie.e., "rigged" games. (MGM Systems, Elka, Casinobar, ClicknPlay, Arcada, Clock Media, many others)"""
They had better answer soon or they'll have a Caruso on thier ass. hoo ha.
Are Micro rogues or not?
Are they cheating?
No more of this waiting game please,thanks.
Players should refrain from questioning Micro and what - keep on playing until someone comes up with answers.Is that so eh?Thats wh... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: joeyl at September 13, 2003, 9:05 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
The question is answers.
Answers please.
Answers to the questions please.
Where are the experts?
The silence is deafening.
No interest in having this right?
Lets have it right then.
Answers.
Tired of no answers.
Who's gonna step up?
Chop chop.
Bump.
Crikey.
I dunno.
What does one have to do to get some answers around here?
This is madness and want no part in the silence.
Time for joeyl to post his bull**** again i think.
I will let him know.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Tester at September 13, 2003, 4:10 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
drlucky:
Quote:
I also believe that this was unknown to the MG licensees. MG wouldn't take the chance by risking that a disgruntled licensee would spill the beans. I don't know if MG gets a % profits from the licensees or just a flat monthly licensing fee (anyone know?), but even if it is the latter, rigging the games is certainly to their advantage by helping their licensees stay in business. In this cutthroat business, an extra .5% could make the difference between losing money and making a nice profit.
1) I agree that they will probably hide it from the casinos. The casinos are probably dumb enough not to notice little changes between expected and actual, especialy when it depends on players startegy.
2) The Software providers are usually taking a percentage of the profits. (between 12.5-25%).
caruso:
Quote:
A realistic note:
Few read the boards. Maybe, 10%, max. 15% of the gambling public. That leaves a MINIMUM 85% of gamblers who ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: joeyl at September 13, 2003, 3:27 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Ya well this unit is becoming increasingly annoyed by Micro's lack of input and the players friend the wizard of odds not posting something.
Time for the Ivory Tower to come down.
It's been long enough since tg let this out..
I call on all player advocates to demand some kind of answers better than that have been offered.
Wizard..
Micro.
PWC.
Player advocates.
Lets have it.
The bitter one wants some answers please.Have waited long enough.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: caruso at September 13, 2003, 2:41 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
A realistic note:
Few read the boards. Maybe, 10%, max. 15% of the gambling public. That leaves a MINIMUM 85% of gamblers who know NOTHING about this.
Microgaming are not going to fold when TG's data and methodology is all on the table and grudgingly accepted by the portals (read "experts" ). Microgaming will simply keep their heads down and carry on with business as usual. This is going to impact their profits maybe 0.005% - and that's an optimistic figure. Nothing will change, other than the US politicians MAY be spurred on to greater lengths with the online gambling ban - which, incidentally, I don't support in principle.
If that turns out to be the case, you can certainly extend an ironic "thank you" to Microgaming: they went for that little bit extra and magnificently shot themselves in the foot.
Sweet, poetic justice for cheats.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: drlucky at September 13, 2003, 1:13 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Good try Gamemaster, although with the sophistication of the TG report, I do not think they would miss something so easy as % of dealer blackjacks. We still like you anyway.
But at least I appreciate that the GM was hard at work trying to find fault in the TG report, because the results are just so UNBELIEVABLE. I too have reviewed the TG report for fault (not that I am an expert), but the only conclusion that can be drawn is that MG blackjack is RIGGED!!
And now it all makes sense. This explains why MG uses the funny hole card rule, thinking that that people would fall into the trap like the gamemaster did and think the # of dealer blackjacks conforms to theoretical norms, or at least make it more difficult to calculate the true expectation. Thank you, TG. Also, getting an extra .5% or so could be attributable to player error, so I believe the auditing reports by the accounting firms are probably sound.
With all the recent media publicity of banning the evils of internet gamb... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Gamblegirl at September 13, 2003, 9:40 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by The GameMaster:
I'll continue working on this because I'm still not convinced there isn't a "fatal flaw" in the report. But obviously I haven't found it yet.
GM
If you can't find one just invent something. Make it sound plausible though.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Sirius at September 13, 2003, 7:36 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
I removed the article from my post. I posted it on here because I thought you would edit it on your site so I posted it for news purposes and to obviously comment on the problem with it which I suppose is fair use! You made a statement here before as if it was going to be an important article.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: caruso at September 13, 2003, 3:19 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by Dirk_Dangerous:
It happens GM, no big deal.
That a leading authority makes an erroneous statement and DOESN'T ALTER IT is not "no big deal".
You don't right a wrong by retracting the erroneous statement on page six of a long thread on a discussion board, and leave it up unchanged on the home page of your high-profile web site. It's still there, including the remarks based on the incorrect BJ stats.
If I were TG I'd be seriously pis*ed off at this point.
If I were Microgaming, I would be delighted.
And the rich get richer. F*cked up.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Dirk_Dangerous at September 12, 2003, 9:28 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
It happens GM, no big deal. Talk with the True Gambler folks, they seem to be ery willing to answer any questions. I know there is some ery serious brain power behind the OCA project, so while there may be some problems in their presentation, I think overall, they've tried ery hard to put out complete and accurate data.
This is important stuff, and it great if knowledgeable gamers such as yourself, the Wiz and others give this data some serious attention.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: The GameMaster at September 12, 2003, 9:17 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Well, there's nothing quite like admitting you're wrong, but in the case of the MGS 'blackjacks' numbers in the TrueGambler report, I was wrong.
I now see that because of the "ENHC" rule, a Microgaming dealer will draw to a 10 or Ace upcard only if the player has elected to stand. Because players will usually hit more aggressively ersus a 10 or A, there will be fewer opportunities for the MGS dealer to try for a natural, thus the observed number will be less than the 4.83% we expect to see.
Naturally, this raises the question about player strategy, which was brought up before. If a player has a tendency to stand with less-than-optimal hands, the "dealer" will have more of an opportunity to draw to its Ace or 10.
I'll continue working on this because I'm still not convinced there isn't a "fatal flaw" in the report. But obviously I haven't found it yet.
GM
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: SantosCruz at September 12, 2003, 6:55 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
I have to disagree with you somewhat Mary. I think all the discussion is causing more confusion. And I do place some of the blame on TG for their sloppy way of presenting the data.
The fact is, only the players believe TG's stats. Portal owners and industry insiders (the opinion makers) have pretty much dismissed TG's results.
I understand the skepticism, but I really expected people like the Gamemaster and the Wiz to correspond with TG and to at least use TG’s data as a spring board for further analysis. It's unfortunate that they haven’t and it only serves to perpetuate the perception that they are nothing more than shills for online casinos.
Once again, the players get shafted--but what else is new.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: The Original Mary at September 12, 2003, 6:13 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
oooh, yes, in future Sirius, mention the article and supply a link to the site.
That was a brand spankin' new article, and GM deserves the traffic it will draw to his site. That's how this business works.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: dominique at September 12, 2003, 6:07 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by The Original Mary:
Everyone who takes the time to think about the TG report and give their comments are contributing to the entire process of making it a better report and adding to what needs to be considered for future tests. There's no shame in that.
Well put, Mary.
Everyone here is contributing and helping to sort this out. This is ery helpful. Thank you all.
------------------
dominique
www.gamesandcasino.com
www.betonanything.info
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: bart at September 12, 2003, 4:22 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by The Original Mary:
Everyone who takes the time to think about the TG report and give their comments are contributing to the entire process of making it a better report and adding to what needs to be considered for future tests. There's no shame in that.
Agree. That indeed has to be the right perspective. I feel better knowing that TG is doing this kind of work. Because I know the casinos know TG is doing this kind of work.
bart
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: greyhound at September 12, 2003, 3:47 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by SantosCruz:
...
In short, the theoretical number of BJ's for the dealer should be lower than the probabilities that you mentioned.
This is not necessarily the case and it also conflicts with the figures for RL and RTG where the expected BJ ratio is higher, not lower. The point is that "resolved hands" are completely removed from the statistics, the percentage is taken from the rest. One would have to know how many BJs the dealer gets when the player busts in order to say if the figure here should be lower or higher. And you cannot know this because it depends on player's strategy (when he never busts, all dealer BJs will be counted; when he always busts, none will).
What about this: the basic strategy says hit stiffs for dealer A or 10 (when no surrender), stand for 2-6, so the player is more likely to bust when the dealer can get a BJ (when he cannot get a BJ, the player sometimes stands). This means that the dealer has a sligh... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: The Original Mary at September 12, 2003, 3:27 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Everyone who takes the time to think about the TG report and give their comments are contributing to the entire process of making it a better report and adding to what needs to be considered for future tests. There's no shame in that.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: SantosCruz at September 12, 2003, 12:42 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Gamemaster,
MG's BJ game does not show all deal BJ's because the player must make his decision before the dealer draws his second card. Therefore if the dealer has an Ace up and the dealer busts, we do not know if the dealer would have had a BJ or not. We simply don’t know what the dealer’s next card would have been.
In short, the theoretical number of BJ's for the dealer should be lower than the probabilities that you mentioned.
In addition, I believe that TG analysis takes into account the players cards when a dealer has an Ace up. This would again lower the theoretical probability of the dealer's BJ.
It would have been nice if you had corresponded with TG before posting your comments. They would have been glad to clarify things for you. This is important stuff, but you’ve basically dismissed it out of hand. I expected better from you.
Oh well, what else is knew. Players always get the shaft.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bethug at September 12, 2003, 12:09 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Gamesmaster, get paid from a casino , use players cant listen to him , the wiz for sure gets paid by playtec and micro , so we for sure cant listen to him.
why would he lie on micro and not on rtg
players all along been saying micro is rigged and rtg is not.
i believe right now , mircro is not, but i am for sure playtec is.
but why trust a software that can be fixed at any time.
If the casinos are so sure they software is not fixed , have someone let them check it out any time , from the inside at any time.
They want cause it fixed, i am tired of these webmaster , taking up from them , they get alot of money from micro and playtec, and they know they fixed.
players u cant trust know body they getting feed by the casinos. if u gave me 10000 a month , i would ask for more proof and still deny it , let be real
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Sirius at September 12, 2003, 12:06 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
I probably didn't explain ery well but they had to exclude hands in which the player busted. This made the theoreticals (for the dealer's totals) dependent on the player's strategy. This meant that all the separate hands had to be considered in order to calculate the theoreticals because the players didn't have a fixed strategy and would have made mistakes anyway.
[This message has been edited by Sirius (edited 09-12-2003).]
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Sirius at September 12, 2003, 11:58 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by The GameMaster:
This is the front page lead-in to an article that will be posted on my site on Friday, Sept. 12th:
The Internet gambling industry has been rocked by what appear to be legitimate concerns that the Blackjack game offered by casinos using Microgaming Systems software is "non-random", which is a polite way of saying it's rigged. The data is available for all to see at no cost or obligation. The group that compiled these facts and figures should be applauded for a great effort, because it was done in the best interests of all Internet casino patrons. The only problem is, they're wrong. I can show you why.
That article isn't correct. I was also puzzled with the report at first and noticed that the number of blackjacks should be even higher than the observed for the dealer but in Microgaming software, the dealer's blackjack is only possibly shown when the player doesn't bust. The calculations for the theoreticals are t... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: greyhound at September 12, 2003, 11:15 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
GameMaster,
a good point (noting that the "Theoretical" BJ dealer probability in the report does not match the well-known 4.83%), but in fact the "Dealer Outcomes" explains it: apparently the dealer results are computed by removing all player cards and one dealer card from the deck and then computing the probabilities of each drawn card. This means that when the dealer gets a BJ, his hole card is effectively drawn *after* all player cards and so the probabilities might slightly ary. Another reason why the figure does not match the theory is that the "resolved" player hands are not considered, so for instance tied BJs (0.22%) do not count, nor do player busts. It is however interesting to note that their theoretical alues ary a lot - from 4.14% for Odds On to 5.91% for RL. I'd have expected that this reflects the number of decks played (more decks mean that the probability is less dependent on the removed player cards), but for RTG (described as 4 decks) it is 5.87%. Thi... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: gamblinboi at September 12, 2003, 6:22 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
greek iking, i believe TG has already stated that their software correctly handled splits, and that the discrepancy isn't due to software error on their part, but cheating on the likes of the casinos.
Let me show you how a programmer would go about handling splits (this should make it clear to you that it is quite simple and doubtful that the TG software screwed up).
We know the general area of the cards. We scan that area for cards, and use OCR to figure out what the card is. We can monitor the screen composition to figure out how many cards are on the screen. We can also monitor the "Split" button to see if the user activates it (thus further ensuring that we look for all the cards). If there is any doubt (eg, recorded cards doesn't match the amount estimated due to whitespace on the screen) the entire screen can be captured, or rescanned for cards. It's important to note that NO software like this would use set coordinates for the location of the cards, but would scan the... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Jetset at September 12, 2003, 12:59 am | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Santa Cruz (also known as Slimbone on CM where he also posts without apparently offering argument) seems to be spreading his opinion across a number of boards, so I will c 'n p here what I responded with at the other site:
I'm not about to join this small but ociferous lynchmob just yet either.
I reserve the right to draw my own conclusions when I have been convinced by reliable information and expert opinions I respect, and thus far that has not been forthcoming. No amount of insults from anonymous posters will change that.
I have been a supporter of the OCA concept and I look forward to TG's addendum in the hope that it may clarify the issue for real experts with iews unclouded by emotion. I suspect that TG would not condone the sort of abuse and intolerance we are seeing from the likes of certain posters.
And as even a cursory inspection of the message board discussions on this topic show there are problems with this data, and for every ranter there are an equal... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: The GameMaster at September 11, 2003, 10:47 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
This is the front page lead-in to an article that will be posted on my site on Friday, Sept. 12th:
The Internet gambling industry has been rocked by what appear to be legitimate concerns that the Blackjack game offered by casinos using Microgaming Systems software is "non-random", which is a polite way of saying it's rigged. The data is available for all to see at no cost or obligation. The group that compiled these facts and figures should be applauded for a great effort, because it was done in the best interests of all Internet casino patrons. The only problem is, they're wrong. I can show you why.
------------------
Yours for winning,
The Gamemaster www.gamemasteronline.com www.gamemasterarcade.com www.blackjack-school.com
[This message has been edited by The GameMaster (edited 09-12-2003).]
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: bart at September 11, 2003, 9:26 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Quote: Originally Posted by The_CPA:
"By your definition, anything that isn't 100% random by the purest of that definition, creates a rigged game.
Crazy as it may sound, if I accept your criteria of the game, and your definiton of rigged, I would agree.
I don't wholeheartedly agree with that though, but understand why any hard core BJ player/math expert would."
I don't know why you wouldn't. I have not seen so much nonsense since BJ21 canned its Progression BlackJack page.
Generally, a shuffled deck approximates randomness in the true sense of the word. Ask Stanford Wong, John May, Don Schlesinger, or any other notable BJ professional and they will tell you the same. As a matter of fact, you can pick up a copy of Wong's professinal Blackjack where there is a rather extensive test.
If this game were dealt in Las Vegas it would behave exactly the same. BlackJack games are simulated routinely now.
The standard of fairness... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: SantosCruz at September 11, 2003, 8:24 pm | | Topic: MG is rigged according to truegambler report Forum: Winner Online |
Microgaming is punking the players, their casino owners and portal owners. What a joke. Why are you people allowing these people to punk you? Got2Bet, CM, Jetset, they're punking you. Stand up and to the beeatch that Microgaming is.
If you don't, you're just punks.
| | Static Link |
|