| Posted by: Matilda at August 23, 2005, 9:51 am | | Topic: Follow-up study for Bodog blackjack Forum: Winner Online |
In the previous thread, eek made a good point that the actual chance of winning any given hand are not that high. So let me correct my previous calculations. According to The Wizard of Odds, the chances of winning, pushing, and losing any given hand are 43.31%, 8.80%, and 47.89%, respectively.
Unfortunately, I didn't keep track of all the pushes the first time around. However, based on the numbers above, we can calculate that under a fair game, the ratio of wins to losses is 43.31:47.89; in other words, for all non-push hands, there is a 47.49% chance of winning.
Plugging this back into the binomial distribution, the chances of getting 70 or fewer wins out of 187 hands is .0035 approximately 1/300.
Not convinced yet? I did another round of playing. (Yes, it was a waste of money, but if I can convince people not to put their money into this game, I'll consider it worthwhile.) This time I recorded all the pushes as well.
450 rounds: 174 wins, 247 losses, 29 push... | | Read Entire Entry |
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