| Posted by: mrsnake3695 at November 5, 2006, 1:19 am | | Topic: Why you DON'T slowplay small sets Forum: Card Chat |
Bomjack, please don't get me wrong, your math is excellent and I read alot of your post and you are ery smart, especially about odds and possibilities, etc.
I just have one disagreement with you here and some of your other posts. I have found that a huge number of players, especially newer players, love to play any 2 suited cards. I know the odds, but so many players play against the correct odds that the chances that a given opponent has a flush with 3 flush cards on the board or a flush draw with 2 is alot higher than you pure odds. Even more so at the lower stakes. I think this needs to be factored in here when making decisions. If I have the best hand but see 2 suited cards on the board, I am less concerned about possibly chasing away a hand that I want to stay then I am of not giving the flush draw the correct odds to chase. Therefore, I would tend to bet higher with the flush draw or obvious straight draw on the board. If someone has TPTK or something to your set chances are he will call ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Bombjack at November 2, 2006, 7:11 pm | | Topic: Why you DON'T slowplay small sets Forum: Card Chat |
I suppose you mean the chances of there being 2 of one suit for a flush draw, or a possible straight on the turn.
If there's no pair on the board:
the chances of there being 2 of one suit aries ery slightly depending on whether your own cards are suited, but ignoring your hole cards it's
1-((39/51)*(26/50)) = 60%
Pretty much ANY flop gives a possible straight draw, for example ANY flop containing an Ace. E.g. A-6-10 is a straight draw for 7-8.
Harder to think of ones that don't... there are only a few like 2-7-K, 2-7-Q, 3-8-K, 2-8-K... in fact I think it's only those four.
So for no pair it's about 99%.
Of course if there is a pair on the board the chances of straight / flush draws go down. With a pair, the chance the third card is the same suit as the first two is 24/50 = 48%.
There will be a straight draw whenever there's less than a 4-gap between the pair and the other card, e.g. 8-8-Q gives a straight draw for J-10, but 8-8-K doesn't. Dif... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: t1riel at November 2, 2006, 5:24 pm | | Topic: Why you DON'T slowplay small sets Forum: Card Chat |
You shouldn't slowplay sets unless there are no flush or straight possiblities. Hey, anybody know the odds of any given flop that would have a striaght and/or flush possiblity. It would be intresting to find out.
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| Posted by: gord962 at November 2, 2006, 3:23 pm | | Topic: Why you DON'T slowplay small sets Forum: Card Chat |
Like I said, I'm not disagreeing I didn't play this as well as it could have been - I stated that at the beginning that I made a mistake of not raising the turn. I start thinking FH as soon as the board pairs in any situation, so that was a concern from the flop. But, if anyone would have hit their FH they would have pushed and me betting wouldn't have scared off yinishi. What would have happened is fitzx3 would have folded and I would have lost his money. There was never a doubt yinishi was going to put all his money in by the river if he had a decent hand. It is simply indicative of the play at this site.
If this was a $1/$2 table at PokerStars, you can believe this would have been played MUCH differently, although everyone would have folded to my PF raise so there wouldn't have even been this discussion!!
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| Posted by: Four Dogs at November 2, 2006, 1:28 pm | | Topic: Why you DON'T slowplay small sets Forum: Card Chat |
Due to the possible flush, the 2 players in, and the fact that you had already bet, I would have bet out on the flop if I were him. However, I've noticed that people tend to be more critical of opponents who slow play trips or 2 pair then they are of those who slow play a flush or a straight.
The interesting thing about this hand is that you both took turns slowplaying your monsters. It's important to remember that straights and flushes (even nut flushes) are not bullet proof. Just as any suited flop is dangerous, so is a paired one. In this case, you gave him better odds to draw out on you with a FH than he gave you with the flush, 4:1 to about 5:1.
It could have been worse too. If his set were hidden, say he had a pocket pair, and the board was something like [3d 2s 6s 7s], he would have been only a 3:1 underdog to draw out on you with just the river to come.
At that limit, I doubt any of that was going through his mind, I'm not saying you played the hand poorly, but you b... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Bombjack at November 2, 2006, 1:20 pm | | Topic: Why you DON'T slowplay small sets Forum: Card Chat |
Would this thread have been titled "why you DON'T slow play a flush on a paired board" if he'd hit his full house on the river? Seriously, raise that turn baby.
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| Posted by: Egon Towst at November 2, 2006, 11:13 am | | Topic: Why you DON'T slowplay small sets Forum: Card Chat |
Gord`s hand is typical of these micro-limit games at CDP. You raise pre-flop and get 3 callers in a 6 man game. Just can`t shake these guys off. Bet you some of them had total trash.
It`s great when you hit, but a real bitch when they do.
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| Posted by: MrSticker at November 2, 2006, 8:37 am | | Topic: Why you DON'T slowplay small sets Forum: Card Chat |
NOW YOU TELL ME!!! Slap me, please!!!
FullTiltPoker Game #1183411512: Table Town Center - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:36:44 ET - 2006/11/02
Seat 1: dcanz ($9.50)
Seat 2: Count Scoopula ($4)
Seat 3: rgoose ($9.85)
Seat 4: Lester Cousins ($5)
Seat 5: ronrap1 ($4.85)
Seat 6: Yokell ($18.10)
Seat 7: MrSticker ($13.45)
Seat 8: Willsie83 ($1.70)
Seat 9: nocsious ($3.90)
MrSticker posts the small blind of $0.05
Willsie83 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrSticker [5s 5d]
nocsious folds
dcanz folds
rgoose calls $0.10
Lester Cousins folds
ronrap1 folds
Yokell folds
MrSticker calls $0.05
Willsie83 checks
*** FLOP *** [5c As 2h]
MrSticker checks
Willsie83 checks
rgoose checks
*** TURN *** [5c As 2h] 8♦
MrSticker checks
Willsie83 bets $0.10
rgoose calls $0.10
MrSticker calls $0.10
*** RIVER *** [5c As 2h 8d] 4♣ | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: KerouacsDog at November 2, 2006, 8:30 am | | Topic: Why you DON'T slowplay small sets Forum: Card Chat |
nice win, Gord, well played. Funny thing is, these guys keep popping up on those 2c/4c tables, yinisi, FEDOT, etc, I think all of us cc-ers at costa have taken them down one time or another.
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| Posted by: gord962 at November 2, 2006, 5:52 am | | Topic: Why you DON'T slowplay small sets Forum: Card Chat |
Please don't laugh at the limit, I am trying to build a BR from a $5 FR win. I am now over $15 after only 30 minutes played at .02/.04.
I know I should have raised the turn but I didn't want to give away that I had hit my flush
Game # 455187158 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 0.02/0.04 - Table "Maarssen"
Players(max 6):
icexox (EUR 4.19 in seat 1)
gord962 (EUR 2.54 in seat 2)
FEDOT (EUR 1.22 in seat 3)
fitzw3 (EUR 2.74 in seat 4)
yinisi (EUR 2.04 in seat 5)
berghet (EUR 1.93 in seat 6)
Dealer: fitzw3
Small Blind: yinisi (0.02)
Big Blind: berghet (0.04)
gord962 was dealt: Ts - As
icexox Fold
gord962 Raise (0.12)
FEDOT Fold
fitzw3 Call (0.12)
yinisi Call (0.10)
berghet Call (0.08)
Flop 6s - 2s - 2d
yinisi Check
berghet Check
gord962 Bet (0.25)
fitzw3 Call (0.25)
yinisi Call (0.25)
berghet Fold
Turn 6s - 2s - 2d - 7s
yinisi Bet (0.20)
gord962 Call (0.20)
fitzw3 Call (0.2... | | Read Entire Entry |
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