| Posted by: pink_floyd67 at February 23, 2007, 7:09 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
I usually dont play the odds.
I go by the player, the flow of the game and hoe hot i am.
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| Posted by: titans4ever at February 23, 2007, 8:54 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
Here is a couple reasons TV odds can mess with you.
1)They will sometimes incorporate the odds of a split pot. A5 s A2 for example. You have him drawing to 3 cards, right? Wrong. You are really drawing to 3 cards to win. Every thing else will more than likely end in a split pot. 4 cards from the board are more than likely going to play. As long as a 3 and 4 both do not appear you will split it.
2)They will reduce odds for dead cards. You have AK s JJ. It is usually about 50/50 odds. If the show knows that 2 As and a K have been folded because they see everyone's hole cards, they will incorporate them into the odds of winning that hand.
That is just two ways that TV odds can be different than just counting outs. Some times not all your outs are good and you never can calculate split pots in some circumstances.
and subtract outs of cards they know are dead. You hold AK and
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| Posted by: The Weevel at February 22, 2007, 11:23 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by jester 6 king
ok I'm sorry if this is the wrong place to ask this, but how do you do it. I've tried doing the times it by 4 thing and divide your outs by the remaining cards but it doesnt work, everytime I check my answer to an online calculator it always says I'm wrong, so what am I doing wrong and what is the right way,
thank you for any help
I've found the best way is to just simplify it and LEARN it!
In practice, you really don't need to worry about less than 2 outs or more than 9 outs because you'll never have the odds to call with less than 2 and you're pretty safe with more than 9.
The list below came from a website I stumbled across and can't remember where, so I give respect to its author (whoever you are!)
Outs Odds on turn or river
2 23:1
3 15:1
4 11:1
5 8:1
6 7:1
7 6:1
8 5:1
9 4:1
The figures are rounded up or down because you don't need to know these things to t... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: F Paulsson at February 22, 2007, 5:13 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
Could you give us an example of a hand that you end up with the wrong result? If you do that, perhaps we can help you figure out why that is.
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| Posted by: JimboJim at February 22, 2007, 4:48 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
The simple way is to count your outs and mulitply it by 2.
Example: your hand...KJ
Board...Q 10 5
you have 8 outs to make a straight. 8x2=16%
Long way is to divide your outs by the number of possible cards left...
8 divided by 47= 0.17 (17%)
That is the percentage of hitting your hand. If you want the percentage of his hand over yours then you are looking at a little more complicated formula.
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| Posted by: jester 6 king at February 22, 2007, 4:27 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
sorry if that was confusing, you know when you see poker on TV they have the percentage of the player winning, how do you figure out that percentage of winning??
hope this helps
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| Posted by: JimboJim at February 22, 2007, 3:13 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
I was just reading bits of this article earlier today.
http://www.cardschat.com/odds-for-dummies.php
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| Posted by: jester 6 king at February 22, 2007, 3:10 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
ok I'm sorry if this is the wrong place to ask this, but how do you do it. I've tried doing the times it by 4 thing and divide your outs by the remaining cards but it doesnt work, everytime I check my answer to an online calculator it always says I'm wrong, so what am I doing wrong and what is the right way,
thank you for any help
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| Posted by: Jack Daniels at August 23, 2006, 11:52 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
I've never heard of or seen Dan Harrington's series available as e-books.
I understand the shipping cost issue, though. I don't know if it helps or not, but you could try checking at Amazon.co.uk or at Amazon.de to see if shipping is cheaper. Both sites offer U.S. titles and are significanly closer than U.S.
Good luck.
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| Posted by: frontmill at August 23, 2006, 8:39 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
ok thanks for the great advice. Are those books also available as ebooks? Because it's pretty expensive to have 'em shipped over to holland.
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| Posted by: Jack Daniels at August 22, 2006, 9:49 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
CardsChat Poker Odd Calculator: www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-calculator.php
Various Poker Odds: Various Poker Odds
Here are a couple site links to get you started. Use the search feature to find more info.
Here are some articles that you can find on the Articles tab above:
http://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-expected-value.php
http://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-...plied-odds.php
This should all be a good start for you. After that, pick up Dan Harrington's books (I'd suggest getting all three eventually, but just start with olume 1 for now.) There will be some great strategy in there that will greatly help your game.
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| Posted by: frontmill at August 22, 2006, 9:18 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
does anyone know a real good article on calculating odds. And what do you guys think about calculating odds. I'm sorry if this isnt the right forum, but i'm new the forum. I'm also pretty new to poker btw, i've played it for a fairly long time, but i started reading books and thinking about strategies and stuff about 3 weeks ago, i learned alot in those 3 weeks. But i wasn't able to find any good article on calculating odds.
thanks in advance.
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| Posted by: marcocroc at June 12, 2005, 2:08 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
in the tournaments the best odds is about chipps in the table.If you have good hand and there are many chipps off others players you shoul call.Thats what i do and when i win i win a lot.Dont risky mutch money in lower chipps.
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| Posted by: Prysm at June 9, 2005, 10:02 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
Any easy way to calculate your % of making a hand is multiplying your outs by 4 for the turn and 2 for the river. Nice, quick, and accurate. Only problem I have with pot-odds and calculating my outs is keeping my outs live >_<
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| Posted by: RammerJammer at June 5, 2005, 4:24 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
The simple* odds for hitting a flush on the draw when holding suited connectors:
Flop: 119-to-1
Turn/River: 1.86-to-1
The simple odds for hitting a straight on the draw when holding suited connectors:
Flop: 75-to-1
Turn/River: 0.85-to-1
The simple odds for hitting a straight flush on the draw when holding suited connectors:
Flop: 19,599-to-1
Turn/River: 10.9-to-1
- from Mike Caro's tables in "Super System"
*Probability of cards emerging from a standard 52-card deck. Does not take into account number of players, card rank, number of cards previously dealt in hand, etc.
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| Posted by: superkmac72 at June 5, 2005, 3:59 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
Nick i was wondering if you knew what the odds of hitting a flush draw or any straight draw when you hold 67 suited. I love small suited connectors and i was wondering if any1 could give that answer.
Nick i was wondering if you knew what the odds of hitting a flush draw or any straight draw when you hold 67 suited. I love small suited connectors and i was wondering if any1 could give that answer.
sry bout the screwed up post, dont know what happened
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| Posted by: xdmanx007 at June 4, 2005, 6:00 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by johnph77
By calculation there are 133,784,560 possible 7-card poker hands.
The odds are 1::17 that you will catch any pair as your hole cards and, by inference, the chances those cards will be aces is 1::221.
On the other hand, mathematics, calculations and odds will least affect play in Texas Hold-Em than almost any other poker game. HE is a psychological game more than anything else. With only two cards hidden in each hand calculation of the odds of catching a particular card is relatively easy whereas in, say, 7-Card Stud, there are more cards isible and the calculations can become more difficult, what with having to remember who folded, how many cards they had exposed, what those cards were, etc. I'm not saying that psychology doesn't enter in Stud play, but the effect isn't as great as it is in HE.
gl
john
Limit poker regardless of ersion is 90 percent about numbers bluffing and what not are only mildly profit... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: RammerJammer at June 3, 2005, 8:40 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
www.texasholdem-poker.com is a FANTASTIC site, especially for new players. It should be in everyone's "favorites" list on their browser.
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| Posted by: Ione at February 6, 2005, 1:39 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by bluestater
i think you gotta go with your gut in teh end
Gawd, I hope you're right. I'm a child of the Fifties, where girls and math just didn't mix... my brain hurts trying to wrap it around these concepts. But I refuse to give up, because everything I read says one should know something about these odds. Nevertheless, I tend to agree with you. There's something to be said for intuition.
BTW, thanks, Nick, for posting this. It helps to have it spelled out this way!
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| Posted by: Nick at February 3, 2005, 4:10 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
Quote:
By calculation there are 133,784,560 possible 7-card poker hands.
That's quite a calculation you have there, I hope you didn't spend aluable time working it out... if you did I would be curious as to how long it took you to come up with such a large number.
What you mentioned about odds not being so important in Holdem could be argued against, although mathematically there's more chance of each card coming up... there is only 3 chances for a card to appear whereas in 7 card poker (not that I've played it) there is 5 chances is there not?
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| Posted by: johnph77 at February 3, 2005, 2:33 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
By calculation there are 133,784,560 possible 7-card poker hands.
The odds are 1::17 that you will catch any pair as your hole cards and, by inference, the chances those cards will be aces is 1::221.
On the other hand, mathematics, calculations and odds will least affect play in Texas Hold-Em than almost any other poker game. HE is a psychological game more than anything else. With only two cards hidden in each hand calculation of the odds of catching a particular card is relatively easy whereas in, say, 7-Card Stud, there are more cards isible and the calculations can become more difficult, what with having to remember who folded, how many cards they had exposed, what those cards were, etc. I'm not saying that psychology doesn't enter in Stud play, but the effect isn't as great as it is in HE.
gl
john
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| Posted by: Mike Church at January 28, 2005, 7:16 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
That's a good article. Yes, pot odds are important; no poker player can ensure a good night every time. A good poker player on $5/$10 might have a mean expectation of $10 per hour and a standard dev. of $100. In a 6-hour night, he only has a 59% chance of coming out positive, but over many nights he should rise. You can only win at poker if you take positive-expectation moves and reject negative-exp. opportunities (even when tempting).
Fallacies I've seen a lot of beginning poker players make include:
Overestimating long-shot probabilities (a common human fallacy, since the human brain can't really get itself about how unlikely, say, a 600:1 shot is),failing to observe other players and model their strategies,bluffing too often and failing to understand the true purpose of bluffing (which is to make other players call when you do have a hand; it's not about the free blinds),calling when they shouldn't, to "keep people honest" or for curiosity's sake,defending the SB/Bring-in on a ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Chatmaster at November 29, 2004, 7:24 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
Nick congratulations, this is one of the best explanations I have read in a long time! Nicely done, even a complete idiot like me could understand that
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| Posted by: johnph77 at November 28, 2004, 10:58 am | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
A good source of further information on this subject can be found at wizadofodds.com
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| Posted by: Nick at November 27, 2004, 7:03 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
Probability is a huge factor in texas hold 'em. Players use odds to determine their actions. The chances of finishing a flush or a straight, the probablity of getting an overcard, the percentage of times you're going to flop a set to match your pocket pair are all important factors in poker. Knowledge of these statistics is key to winning. In online games especially with ery few (if any) tells, statistical knowledge becomes the main factor when choosing whether to bet, call, or fold.
Here are some terms that you'll hear on this site and whenever you're talking about poker odds...
Outs The number of cards left in the deck that will improve your hand.
"I had four hearts on the turn, so I had only 9 outs left to finish that flush." Pot Odds The odds you get when analyzing the current size of the pot s. your next call.
"There's $200 already in the pot, and only another $10 bet coming at me, so my pot odds are good if I hit that flush." Bet Odds The odds you ... | | Read Entire Entry |
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