| Posted by: 111-THEMAD-111 at December 8, 2007, 7:50 am | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Cheetah
Would you please justify this rule of ten?
Well I don't know if I can justify any play per say. Simply stated if I have 10 times as many chips as my opponent I'm going to try to take him out with the utmost of aggresion. This is how I play and it works for me. I'm not telling anyone how to play and I havent read any poker books so I don't know what the pro's have to say about this. Just my opinion.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: WVHillbilly at December 8, 2007, 7:37 am | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by 111-THEMAD-111
The short answer to this is the rule of ten . If the big blind or any one else for that matter has ten times more chips than you they should call you with any two cards..............
I think you are misinterpreting Harrington (an assumption on my part) here. What he actually says is that he will bet enough to put a SS all-in with ATC if he has 10x the chips as the SS. I believe he mentions a top 30% hand to CALL a SS's all-in. The chance that the SS will fold to his bet rather than risk a call, makes that play profitable.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: 111-THEMAD-111 at December 8, 2007, 3:44 am | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Bentheman87
Also here's another question to think about. How small does your M have to be before it's correct for the big blind to call your all in with any two cards, assuming he knows that you don't have a big pair like AA KK QQ or JJ since it's so unlikely given your desperate situation.
The short answer to this is the rule of ten . If the big blind or any one else for that matter has ten times more chips than you they should call you with any two cards..............
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Steveg1976 at December 7, 2007, 12:24 am | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Cheetah
Steve, don't let this deter you from trying to do this yourself. Everyone makes mistakes. If you make another mistake, I am sure someone will notice. And if no one notices, then it wasn't important anyway.
I am going to make a point of over the next few months really focusing on the Math, I am sure there is alue there that I am missing. I don't mind mistakes, and I don't mind being questioned, when you blow something you won't forget it in the future that is for sure.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Cheetah at December 6, 2007, 11:53 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Steveg1976
You are absolutely correct and I apologize for my incorrect post. I will be double checking everything from here on out, and leaving the math to AG and Cheetah for a while.
Steve, don't let this deter you from trying to do this yourself. Everyone makes mistakes. If you make another mistake, I am sure someone will notice. And if no one notices, then it wasn't important anyway.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Cheetah at December 6, 2007, 11:43 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Bentheman87
Wow, that's ery suprising that you guys have the same hand requirments with an M of 5 as you do with an M of 3.
When M goes from 3 to 5, it is true that we have more time and can therefore wait for a better hand. This implies that we should tighten up. However, there is an opposing force that dictates that we should play looser, especially in late position and unopened pot. That is stealing the blinds from late position is a profitable play and necessary for survival. We don't get enough premium hands to sustain our short stack without stealing.
The effects of stealing can be iewed in this thread:
stealing from the button with high blinds
Even though that thread deals with one specific hand and position, the trends are the same for other hands and positions.
The bottom line is that even though we are dog when called, we pick up the blinds far more often than we are called, assuming our stack is not tiny. The cEV... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Cheetah at December 6, 2007, 10:59 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Bentheman87
What I mean is how small your M has to be before it's mathematically correct to call your all in even with 7 2 offsuit. So just ignore his stack size and the point of the tournament. Say he somehow knows you have King 4 offsuit and he has a 8 5 offsuit. How small does your M have to be before its correct for him to call given his pot odds?
Let's calculate it.
First of all, let me point out that 27o is not the worst hand against a random hand. 23o is the worst.
Here is the pot equity against a random hand:23o: 32.303%27o: 34.584%The reason is that the high card alue of 27o is more important against a random hand than the str8 potential of 23o.
Just to illustrate that there is no mistery, here is how these hands fare against a "good" hand, say AQ:23o: 33.535%27o: 31.613%As you can see, 27o proudly reclaims its mythological status as "worst hand". The reason is that the high alue of 27o over 23o... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Cheetah at December 6, 2007, 10:09 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Bentheman87
Also here's another question to think about. How small does your M have to be before it's correct for the big blind to call your all in with any two cards, assuming he knows that you don't have a big pair like AA KK QQ or JJ since it's so unlikely given your desperate situation.
The chance to get a big pair dosn't depend on how desperate you are. So they should be included as well. So I think you are asking: When should the big blind call if they know you are pushing with any 2 cards?
If we ignore the fact that the big blind is already posted, then the pot odds would be 1:1 regardless of the size of the small stack. In that case, a big-stacked big blind can call whenever the equity in the pot is greater than 50%. The following hands satisfy this condition(the numbers are for the lowest hand in the group):T8+: 50.375%J7+: 50.343%Q5+: 50.782%K2+: 51.184%A2+: 55.541%Of course these numbers change a little for suited s unsuited, but ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Steveg1976 at December 6, 2007, 7:08 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by aliengenius
Here is a good one. Also, free software that a lot of people use here.
thanks, I am work but will playing around with it tonight.
(I apoligize this thread got hijacked)
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: aliengenius at December 6, 2007, 6:59 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Steveg1976
Too funny, I will see where I went wrong.
Darn Odds Calculator
Here is a good one. Also, free software that a lot of people use here.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Steveg1976 at December 6, 2007, 6:33 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by aliengenius
No wonder these numbers surprise you, as they are totally wrong. K8o dominates both 86o and 85o, being about 70% in both cases to win.
You are absolutely correct and I apologize for my incorrect post. I will be double checking everything from here on out, and leaving the math to AG and Cheetah for a while.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Steveg1976 at December 6, 2007, 6:23 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by aliengenius
No wonder these numbers surprise you, as they are totally wrong. K8o dominates both 86o and 85o, being about 70% in both cases to win.
Too funny, I will see where I went wrong.
Darn Odds Calculator
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: aliengenius at December 6, 2007, 6:10 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Steveg1976
Well the K8o is only a 6.7% favorite pre flop to the 86o. The K8 is a 53.4% favorite to win to the 85o of 46.7%. The numbers never fail surprise me. I don't know if you have read Harrington on Hold 'em he does a ery good job of explaining small M play, with statistical analysis. Bottom line though is that by the time one reaches the red zone the cards are much less important than timing the shoves. Not that getting great cards to shove isn't a great thing.
No wonder these numbers surprise you, as they are totally wrong. K8o dominates both 86o and 85o, being about 70% in both cases to win.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Steveg1976 at December 6, 2007, 4:58 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Bentheman87
What I mean is how small your M has to be before it's mathematically correct to call your all in even with 7 2 offsuit. So just ignore his stack size and the point of the tournament. Say he somehow knows you have King 4 offsuit and he has a 8 5 offsuit. How small does your M have to be before its correct for him to call given his pot odds?
Well the K8o is only a 6.7% favorite pre flop to the 86o. The K8 is a 53.4% favorite to win to the 85o of 46.7%. The numbers never fail surprise me. I don't know if you have read Harrington on Hold 'em he does a ery good job of explaining small M play, with statistical analysis. Bottom line though is that by the time one reaches the red zone the cards are much less important than timing the shoves. Not that getting great cards to shove isn't a great thing.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: dj11 at December 6, 2007, 4:51 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
If you are in the red zone, and UTG, don't even look at your cards, just shove. You are the BB next hand at which time you have even less fold equity than you do if UTG, and that is already almost none. The only sane reason to go passively into the night would be bubble play.
Everyone at the table will see whats going on, they will know you are shoving with air most likely, and it is best opportunity you will have to suck out and more than double up . UTG you will at least create a tiny shred of doubt in their minds that you may actually have a hand.
If you wait till you are the BB, you will find someone raising before you have any chance to put any doubt in their minds. All other options available in the red zone are slightly less useless than the UTG shove. IMO.
Truly your best option is to catch lightning in a bottle, or somehow create the illusion you have done that. Low M situations pretty much nullify the illusion aspect of that equation.
And for what its worth,... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Bentheman87 at December 6, 2007, 4:35 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
What I mean is how small your M has to be before it's mathematically correct to call your all in even with 7 2 offsuit. So just ignore his stack size and the point of the tournament. Say he somehow knows you have King 4 offsuit and he has a 8 5 offsuit. How small does your M have to be before its correct for him to call given his pot odds?
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Steveg1976 at December 6, 2007, 4:26 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Bentheman87
Also here's another question to think about. How small does your M have to be before it's correct for the big blind to call your all in with any two cards, assuming he knows that you don't have a big pair like AA KK QQ or JJ since it's so unlikely given your desperate situation.
The answer depends
1. What point of the tournament is it? Is it worth more to eleminate you the short stack or to get the extra chips?
2. How big of stack does the BB have? Obviously the bigger the stack the easier the call.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bentheman87 at December 6, 2007, 4:20 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Also here's another question to think about. How small does your M have to be before it's correct for the big blind to call your all in with any two cards, assuming he knows that you don't have a big pair like AA KK QQ or JJ since it's so unlikely given your desperate situation.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bentheman87 at December 6, 2007, 4:16 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Wow, that's ery suprising that you guys have the same hand requirments with an M of 5 as you do with an M of 3. When I play, and my M is over 10, I really don't even think about M that much. I mean, if your M is 18 you can survive 162 more hands at a nine handed game before you're blinded out. With an M of 21, you can survive 189 more hands, not that big of a difference at all. But when my M drops below 10, I begin to calculate my exact M during every single hand, especially in the red zone with an M below 5.
With an M of exactly 5, you can survive 45 more hands. With an M of 3, you can survive 27 more hands. That's a huge difference! You can survive almost twice as many hands with an M of 5.
I often see players shoving all in with hands as weak as 10 8 or Jack 7 when it's folded to them and they have an M of 5 but is that really the right play? When they do steal the blinds there stack would go from 5000 to 6000, but when they get called they are an underdog to lose their entire stac... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: CAPT. ZIGZAG at December 5, 2007, 8:20 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
I believe that there are two stack points which give you an advantage. One, the obvious, HUGE stack.
The other is the smallness of your stack. Any duckets they have above your stack amount mean nothing to you. As a matter of fact, the bigger the better. This makes is more likely that they will call your all in and play beyond you to another player.
I play a pretty good short stack, mainly because a $20.00 max buy in at a table where there are plenty of 40, 50 and 60+ stacks on the board means that you have to play short stacked every day till you hit. You learn to wait.
I just sit and fold. I do try to see every flop which isn't contested beyond the big blind amount. That's maybe two or three a round. Other than that, I wait, read, pick my nose, fart, wait, wait and wait some more.
-
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Steveg1976 at December 5, 2007, 7:32 pm | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Another ery important thing to remember is to shove even with bad cards before your M gets so low that you can't hurt anyones stacks. What good does it do to sit through the Blinds waiting for a decent shoving hand if you M drops to an insignificant amount. I would rather shove with M 4-5 with 10,9s than AK with an M of 2 because even if you double up your are still in the Red and not a threat without shoving again. Shoving earlier can buy you more time and more respect than waiting for a good hand with an insignifanct M.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: mrsnake3695 at December 5, 2007, 6:57 am | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
It mostly depends on if you are first to act or not. This is one thing Harrington stresses in low M situations. Position is also important here as in any other situation. On the button with all folds to you is pretty much a shove with any 2 cards. If your UTG you still need a decent hand to push with although decent is lowered a bit. It's also important to know the stack sizes of the other players. Of instance if you are in middle position and the BB had a huge or ery short stack you can almost be assured of a call so you need to factor that in when deciding what to play. Preferably you want to attack the medium stacks if possible.
So in order to answer the question you need a lot more information on position, stack sizes, action of other players so far, type of players yet to act, before you even begin to discuss your cards.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: WVHillbilly at December 5, 2007, 5:48 am | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
I agree it doesn't matter what your exact M may be. Shoving or folding with a low M to me is about position (how many are left to act behind me) and the stack sizes of those left to act. I'll push with 8 5 os if it's folded to me in the SB and I can hurt the BB's stack if he calls.
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: OzExorcist at December 5, 2007, 5:39 am | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
Seem to remember this being discussed not ery long ago - essentially, I don't think my hand requirements change at all from M=5 to M=2. You're talking about adjusting your range of calling hands over the space of... what, 20 hands maximum?
It might take a lot more than hands than that to get cards you're happy with in a situation you're happy with. So I don't see the point of saying "I'll shove K-x with an M of 5, but as soon as that sucker gets down to 4 I'm shoving Q-x down to J-7 as well"
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: royalburrito24 at December 5, 2007, 1:20 am | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
do you have any specific Red mzone strategy hands to let us give our answer?
Here would be my general answer that doesnt answer your questions specifically:
My move depends on anybody coming in the pot (whether it be limping or raising) before me, or if im UTG is it more likely for me to pick up a better hand in the BB?
IT depends on stack sizes, your read on the table (for example dont push when there is a calling station is in the blinds unless you have a strong hand against the calling station's range.
It is read dependent and opponent stack size dependent
any specific hands would be much easier
| | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bentheman87 at December 5, 2007, 12:56 am | | Topic: Red Zone strategy discussion Forum: Card Chat |
If you aren't familiar with the M system from Dan Harrington, it's a number that tells you how many more rounds you can survive if you never play a hand, so it basically tells you just how much pressure you are under to make a move before you get blinded out. You take your total stack and divide it by the total starting pot to get your M. Once it is below 5 you are considered to be in the red zone. In my opinion knowing how to play correctly in the red zone is the most important tournament skill to have, because even if you are shortstacked its still ery possisible to come back and get deep into a tournament. Here are a few questions what do you guys think is the correct answer?
How much do your hand requirments change when you drop from an M of 5 to an M of about 4? How much do your hand requirments change when you drop from an M of 4 to 3 (an M below 3 means almost any hand is good enough to push all in, even a king rag or a queen rag is usually good enough)? How about if the remaining playe... | | Read Entire Entry |
|