| Posted by: Bombjack at August 23, 2006, 1:57 am | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by twizzybop
Random has to be done from 52 cards only on 1 individual table not X number of hands from the whole site done from X number of tables.
You've really lost me on this thread Twizzy. What makes you think each deck of cards isn't shuffled on a per table basis? You'd have to know the details of how the RNG works to say it doesn't. Which site in particular are you saying does it this way?
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| Posted by: twizzybop at August 22, 2006, 11:22 pm | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Four Dogs
Twizzy, I'm not sure what you're getting at, but I think you're assuming that the PRNG is somehow trying to spread out certain outcomes so that everyone gets the same even distribution of expected cards. But even though, that might SEEM fair, it wouldn't be random at all. A truly random distribution always includes a number of statistical anomalies. I would be highly suspicious of any site where my distribution was too perfect over a statistically meaningless period. Now, the more hands I play, the more thing should even out, but some events are so rare, a Royal Flush for example 649,750:1, that you could play your entire life and not expect to see one. Or you might get 10.
It has to spread out for the "entire site" it doesn't do it for "individual tables".. would the same suspicions be included where it was not perfect say 10% of your hands were good hands over a meaningless period.
Should and could are 2 diffr... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: twizzybop at August 22, 2006, 11:13 pm | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Bombjack
I don't think the poker sites calculate expectations at all, for individual tables or the entire site. They just apply a shuffling routine based on random numbers to the deck before each hand. The random numbers are created by some kind of clever maths which takes arious inputs including "system entropy", i.e. readings CPU and memory usage, clock time and date etc, but nothing to do with the way other deals have come out, on that table or across the site.
So the way the cards come out for each hand is random. Your expectations of numbers of types of hands are just based on the laws of probability - nothing to do with the software. You'd get the same distributions if you dealt physical cards by hand, so long as you shuffled well.
If you notice though, they wash the cards way more then they shuffle. Shuffling actually bends the cards believe it or not.. I personally can't be delicate enough with a deck, I for some reason alw... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Four Dogs at August 20, 2006, 3:27 pm | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
Twizzy, I'm not sure what you're getting at, but I think you're assuming that the PRNG is somehow trying to spread out certain outcomes so that everyone gets the same even distribution of expected cards. But even though, that might SEEM fair, it wouldn't be random at all. A truly random distribution always includes a number of statistical anomalies. I would be highly suspicious of any site where my distribution was too perfect over a statistically meaningless period. Now, the more hands I play, the more thing should even out, but some events are so rare, a Royal Flush for example 649,750:1, that you could play your entire life and not expect to see one. Or you might get 10.
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| Posted by: Bombjack at August 20, 2006, 2:15 am | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
I don't think the poker sites calculate expectations at all, for individual tables or the entire site. They just apply a shuffling routine based on random numbers to the deck before each hand. The random numbers are created by some kind of clever maths which takes arious inputs including "system entropy", i.e. readings CPU and memory usage, clock time and date etc, but nothing to do with the way other deals have come out, on that table or across the site.
So the way the cards come out for each hand is random. Your expectations of numbers of types of hands are just based on the laws of probability - nothing to do with the software. You'd get the same distributions if you dealt physical cards by hand, so long as you shuffled well.
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| Posted by: twizzybop at August 20, 2006, 1:42 am | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Four Dogs
Exactly Chuck, the RNG, is actually a PRNG, which stands for Psuedo Random Number Generator. It's merely an algorithm that spits out numbers. Each number cooresponds to a card in the deck. Once that number is used in a hand it is no longer available for uses again until the start of a new hand. The reason it is pseudo and not actual is that the algorithm is a formula and given the same ariable to start with, it will always give the same result. If 4+C=a then whenever C=5, a will always = 9. In this case, the letter a is the initial ariable, or seed. Of course the algorithm for generating poker hands is longer, but not much more complex. The randomness comes from the seed. In our example above, the letter C performed that function, and we chose the number 5 at a whim. Computers don't have whims so there the seed must be chosen carefully, changed continuously, and carefully guarded. This is done in several ways, some sites use a timer and the seed is m... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Four Dogs at August 19, 2006, 1:05 am | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Four Dogs
Incidently, I've hit AA once out of every 256 hands. I've been robbed.
Quote: Originally Posted by Effexor
How do you know these facts? I manually went through one of my MTT HH's to see the distribution and prove to myself that I really WAS getting bad hands. It took forever to do and that was only 115 hands or so.
Quote: Originally Posted by F Paulsson
PokerTracker.
Exactly.
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| Posted by: LesDoodis at August 18, 2006, 5:37 pm | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by MrSticker
I agree that a site's randomness must be for the whole site and NOT per table. I believe it because when I play 2 tables at once on any site, I get the same hand, different suits quite often. If my two hands aren't the same, the flop on one table is usually similar to my hand on the other. It gets to where I can almost predict what's coming. Doesn't help because it's never AA. LOL.
I see the same thing alot, but there are only 52 cards. When you see two tables have similar flops, they usually aren't the same suits. I have seen it quite a bit, but its just the way the cards fall. There are only 13 different cards (forget suits for now) to fall. You are bound to see twop flops at the same time that may 2 or even all 3 of the same alues. I really don't think the original poster is on to anything. If some online poker player can think of this I am sure that the programmers have thought of this as well.
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| Posted by: Bombjack at August 18, 2006, 5:25 pm | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
As an aside this is as a Normal approximation to the Poisson distribution. In reality we should use a Binomial distribution since the hands are discreet, but the approximation is close enough. For slightly better accuracy use ariance = n*p*(1-p) rather than just n*p, but as p is small, it doesn't make a lot of difference. (Trying on the example above gave z = -1.85 rather than -1.87.)
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| Posted by: Bombjack at August 18, 2006, 5:04 pm | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
You can test whether you're getting too few or to many aces or any other hand using the following:
Take the number of sample hands you have (N) and multiply it by the probability of getting that hand (eg 1/221 for pocket Aces). Call the result L. This is the mean of the distribution (expected number).
The ariance of the distribution is also equal to L.
To get your test statistic z, take your actual number of that hand and subtract L. Then devide this by the standard deviation, which is the square root of the ariance, i.e. sqr(L).
Now decide on a significance level, e.g. 1%, and look the significance limits up on a Normal (z) distribution table such as this one. To save you the bother:
At 1% the limits are -2.58 < z < 2.58
At 5% the limits are -1.96 < z < 1.96
So, from my database, under one of my aliases I got AA 23 times in 7487 hands.
L = (1/221)*7487 = 33.88 (I should get on average this many)
z = (23 - 33.88)/sq... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: ChuckTs at August 18, 2006, 5:03 pm | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
ok...still trying to understand your theory, twizzy (man i was tired last night....coulda sworn it was MrS posting it )
a certain percent (6.7%) of a player's hands will be pairs. As the number of people at a site increases, more pairs will be dealt - but not a higher percent (theoretically). For a site with 10,000 hands dealt, the number of pairs dealt will be ~667. For a site with 1,000,000,000 hands dealt, the number of pairs dealt will be ~66,666,667. Sure, alot more pairs were dealt in the second example, but in both examples the percent of the total hands that were pairs is the same.
So from what i've got from your theory: You think that the RNG has mixed up the numbers and the # of pairs dealt at your single table with the # of pairs dealt at the whole site? And thats why you get so many pairs?
....ok I'm still confused :/
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| Posted by: F Paulsson at August 18, 2006, 4:01 pm | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Effexor
How do you know these facts? I manually went through one of my MTT HH's to see the distribution and prove to myself that I really WAS getting bad hands. It took forever to do and that was only 115 hands or so.
PokerTracker.
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| Posted by: Effexor at August 18, 2006, 3:53 pm | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Four Dogs
Over 13000 hands I've been dealt 93s only 21 times and A4s 54 times.
Incidently, I've hit AA once out of every 256 hands. I've been robbed.
How do you know these facts? I manually went through one of my MTT HH's to see the distribution and prove to myself that I really WAS getting bad hands. It took forever to do and that was only 115 hands or so.
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| Posted by: Four Dogs at August 18, 2006, 10:00 am | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
Exactly Chuck, the RNG, is actually a PRNG, which stands for Psuedo Random Number Generator. It's merely an algorithm that spits out numbers. Each number cooresponds to a card in the deck. Once that number is used in a hand it is no longer available for uses again until the start of a new hand. The reason it is pseudo and not actual is that the algorithm is a formula and given the same ariable to start with, it will always give the same result. If 4+C=a then whenever C=5, a will always = 9. In this case, the letter a is the initial ariable, or seed. Of course the algorithm for generating poker hands is longer, but not much more complex. The randomness comes from the seed. In our example above, the letter C performed that function, and we chose the number 5 at a whim. Computers don't have whims so there the seed must be chosen carefully, changed continuously, and carefully guarded. This is done in several ways, some sites use a timer and the seed is merely a number chosen by say the time of day, or the t... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: ChuckTs at August 18, 2006, 7:57 am | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
OK I'm trying to understand your theory, but am getting nowhere; I'm just going to post my thouhgts after a few quotes:
Quote:
However it calculates hands per the "whole site", it doesn't calculate hands per individual tables.
Wha? The way I see it, a real RNG doesn't calculate 'per' anthing...it just chooses random cards for every person's holding, of course making adjustments for other people's holdings (ie not dealing the same card twice).
Quote:
So theoretically those are supposed to happen once in 16 hands you play or 220 hands you play.
True.
However the rng isn't going to know this.. why is that?
Because it doesn't need to. If it deals people cards randomly, then the odds will dictate themselves. In the long run, say a million hands, the number of pairs/number of total hands for each person should roughly equal 1/16. I don't think this info is input into the program, but rather it just dictates itself when ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: MrSticker at August 18, 2006, 4:59 am | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
I agree that a site's randomness must be for the whole site and NOT per table. I believe it because when I play 2 tables at once on any site, I get the same hand, different suits quite often. If my two hands aren't the same, the flop on one table is usually similar to my hand on the other. It gets to where I can almost predict what's coming. Doesn't help because it's never AA. LOL.
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| Posted by: twizzybop at August 18, 2006, 3:21 am | | Topic: Gnaw on this... its about the rigged thingy Forum: Card Chat |
Ok I agree that a site deals umpteen thousand of hands. However it calculates hands per the "whole site", it doesn't calculate hands per individual tables. Think I may be wrong, I may be right wrong.. more then likely I am wrong.. Just stop and think for a moment..
A pair is supposed to happen 16:1 and specific pair is 220:1
So theoretically those are supposed to happen once in 16 hands you play or 220 hands you play.
However the rng isn't going to know this.. why is that?
Well the more tables it plays the more hands it will deal..
Now it deals with a whole site of hands compared to individual tables.. so instead of dealing with 1 table with individual hands it deals with multiple table with multiple hands.
Just like if there is per say 20 ideo poker machines running, of course now your chances increase of a royal flush happening compared to 1 machine running.
So if an rng could seperate individual tables compared to a whole site t... | | Read Entire Entry |
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