| Posted by: Ronaldadio at January 12, 2007, 5:46 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
I would have to call - you could probably make up your money as an after dinner speaker "My first WSOP hand was AA. I only played one hand"!!!
I would see this as the best way of someone with as little experience as me increasing my chip stack x 9, then I could tighten up.
Another question here would be if you were in the same situation, but you got one person raising 5 times bb and 2 callers to you, what would you do? With my lack of experience I would push all in. I would need to do this because I would only be comfortable if an A hit a rainbow flop with a 7 and a 2, so I may as well go all in earlier rather than later!!!
Good post
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| Posted by: tenbob at January 12, 2007, 5:06 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
Nice thread Joose.
Would you call in a $5 sit and go ? Of course you would, so what makes this situation any different ? Being under-rolled to make the call.
Personally if i was in this situation, id have to think long and hard about what i want to achieve in the tournament. If I managed by some miricale to sat in for $5, id more than likely fold, buy then again id be there for the experience of playing the WSOP main event, and under no great illustions that i could win it. My experience would consist of more than one hand.
Thats what would be running though my mind, it it ACTUALLY HAPPENED, i dont know, but i think id make the call , considering most of the table is likely to be drawing almost dead, ob AA s AA s KK s KK s QQ s QQ sJJ JJ s 10's
Ob there will be a 10 on the turn.
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| Posted by: mrsnake3695 at January 12, 2007, 4:49 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
Most people in the WSOP are happy to finish day one with 20,000. Here you have a good chance to get 100,000 on the first hand. I would call in about 2 seconds. Sure you are not a 50% favorite to win but you are certainly much more than 10% for it's obviously a positive play. If you fold you are in no way insured of making the money or even surviving day one. With 100K you chances of making the money and even winning are greatly increased. Unless you go brain dead or just get a run of really bad luck you should easily make day 2. Hell, you could collect your 100K and go sight seeing the rest of the day and still end up one of the chip leaders at the end. I believe a blinded off stack last year lasted until about 2 hours before the end of day one. Remember, when ever you are in any tournament the object is to win not to be able to brag you lasted longer than your firends. It's about collecting chips, this is an opportunity you may never get again. If you go card dead and go out in the first day, how are y... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Dorkus Malorkus at January 12, 2007, 4:47 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
dont worry i still *heart symbol* you.
could i force myself to pull the trigger and call? i'd like to hope so - but this is sorta like asking someone "what would you do if you were upstairs and someone broke into your house?" - you can't really give an accurate or sometimes even a reliable answer unless you've actually been in said situation.
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| Posted by: joosebuck at January 12, 2007, 4:36 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
i didnt mean to sound so cross there, i just had expected more of an initial response from you than something along the lines of "you should call and if you dont you are a moron donk". i know it's the correct call, i dont think anyone is debating that. what i was asking was if you could force yourself to pull the trigger in that type of situation
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| Posted by: F Paulsson at January 12, 2007, 4:20 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
Call without hesitation. Let me add two things that may make the call even more obvious:
1. Given that 9 players just went all-in before you, what hands are you up against? Large pocket pairs. 65s isn't calling. JTs isn't calling. You're up against 9 other big pocket pairs - and you completely annihilate those when it's just you and them, and they're drawing essentially dead when two players both have KK, for instance. You're likely to split the pot with the other guy holding AA, but hey - quintupling (never used that word before) your stack on the first hand isn't bad.
2. You're probably not a great tournament player. I know I'm not. The no-limit geniuses of hand reading, Phil Ivey et al, should be less happy about calling than Joe Blow is, because they are more likely to win on skill than on luck. Getting all-in preflop with the best hand is good and all, but it still presents usually a 30% or more risk of elimination. Of course, in this particular case any pro would call in an i... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Dorkus Malorkus at January 12, 2007, 10:50 am | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by joosebuck
such a typical response.
if i were to ask "what colour is the sky?" then "blue" would be a typical response. It's a typical response for a reason.
of course i wouldn't be entering the wsop in the first place if it was such a significant % of my bankroll, but i appreciate the question was hypothetical.
in poker we must distance ourselves from our emotions and concentrate on the game. folding AA "because I don't want to be the first one out" or "because all my friends would still be in and would take the piss for years" or "because i wouldn't know what the hell to tell my family and friends" or "because so much of my money is at stake" is simply incorrect, and you are letting emotions cloud your play in thinking any of the above.
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| Posted by: joosebuck at January 12, 2007, 9:40 am | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
Quote:
I'd suggest that if you're thinking of folding aces here you're playing so weakly and 'scared' that you're basically throwing 10k away by just entering and thus should not have entered in the first place.
such a typical response. it's so easy to be an elitist and say "if you arent willing to gamble with aa preflop you shouldnt be playing poker". way easier said than done, and in a situation where i've literally worked my ass of for a year straight, i dont know if i can "instantly" call for sure. regardless of if i know it's the right move or not. s 9 random hands is AA even better than 30% to win?
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| Posted by: Dorkus Malorkus at January 12, 2007, 9:35 am | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
Call instantly. I say instantly so I don't get tempted to think about it and make a play which I know is bad (folding).
Quote: Originally Posted by joosebuck
i understand that but do you really want to possibly go to the rail that fast? with your friends still in it? 10k of your own money down the drain?
I'd suggest that if you're thinking of folding aces here you're playing so weakly and 'scared' that you're basically throwing 10k away by just entering and thus should not have entered in the first place.
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| Posted by: combuboom at January 12, 2007, 9:33 am | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
As I said in my post, I agree with those saying they'd fold, given the situation. However, I hope people are realizing that in the long-run, going all-in with AA here is ery +EV, so if you were a pro who plays several tournaments, you should without question do it. Whether or not you're favored to win doesn't matter, by itself. If you somehow knew you were 48% to win a hand with 3 other people all-in, but you'd quadruple your average-sized chip stack, should you fold because you're not favored to win? Absolutely not. This is just a slightly different ersion of that scenario... although your chance to win is lesser (somewhere around 25%-30% depending on other holdings), you multiply your stack by TEN!
Again, I think folding here is totally understandable for a non-pro who greatly alues the prospect of just making the money. But I'm getting the ibe by the responses, i.e. "someone is bound to catch up", or "I know I'm not favored to win", that some people don't realize that... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: roundcat at January 12, 2007, 9:18 am | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
I don't think it's a good idea to put all your chips in when there's not at least a decent chance you'll be favored to win (and/or a strong chance you'll win by bluffing, which doesn't come into play here), and even with AA, with that many people in the pot you're no longer a favorite. I'd fold, no question.
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| Posted by: FinalTable at January 12, 2007, 6:56 am | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
I'm out.
Benefit of having the AA is being able to push people out of pots...maybe end up heads up to see the flop.
If everyone is already all-in...then everyone is already committed and everyone will see every card. At the end of the day, you have a pair. You'll beat any other pair. But with that many players in a pot, someone will end up w/ better than a pair and if it's not you - you are done and going home. If it's me, I'm happy to get out of the pot and hope that a couple of people split it and send a couple of home. You still are sitting there w/ your starting chips. Play real TAG after that, play your hands and hope you can double up a time or two to get back into the game.
I have a football mind, so this is my perspective. First play of the game, you are given a choice. Get a TD on this ONE play and you win...or you play all 4 quarters but you have to spot the other team 10. What would you do? All that practice, all those games, just to put it all on the line with o... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: combuboom at January 12, 2007, 6:34 am | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
If I'm a wealthy poker pro who's sure to play in every Main Event, every year, I call with the Aces. It's easily the +e thing to do, in the long run. A ~25% chance to multiply your stack by 10 right away? After the first hand, you'd already have the average number of chips needed to REACH THE MONEY, and your chances of hitting millions would skyrocket tremendously, as you'd be able to pick up many uncontested pots from those who don't want to get involved with the big stack for at least the first 2 days.
However, if I'm just me, a not so wealthy guy, and I've worked extremely hard to earn the money to enter, really not knowing if I'll ever get another shot at it, I think I'd honestly fold. I worked really hard to have that experience of playing in the Main Event, and to immediately allow for a ~75% chance to be knocked out of the first hand isn't exactly giving me good odds to be able to experience it for longer than 5 minutes. You can't win the Main Event on the first hand, but you can los... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: juiceeQ at January 12, 2007, 6:22 am | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
Eight or nine players ahead of me all-in? Helllll no. I fold those Aces in a heartbeat. Sure, it would suck, but let's think about for a second...
Sure, AA is the best pre-flop hand, but with that many people in the pot before you, someone is sure to draw to a better hand. And your only two real outs are probably held by any of your other opponents. Let them take each other out, I'll stay and fight on to get deeper into the tournament. If the scenario Joose laid out is true, I've worked too long and too hard to let it go down like that.
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| Posted by: hott_estelle at January 12, 2007, 4:16 am | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by joosebuck
You made your way to the WSOP from hard earned poker winnings, grinded out at the $1/2 table over the past year. You are there with a few other friends, all who satellite'd their ways in.
You sit down at your table and start to make conversation. The tourney director then announces "Shuffle up and deal".
You draw the big blind and look down at pocket aces. Not bad. Then UTG goes all in. And UTG+1. Then UTG+2. And everyone else goes all in infront of you.
What do you do? Can you really fold? Can you call?
Well, considering 10K is a lot fo money for me, I would seriously have to consider the situation. But, I don't think I could bring myself to lay them down at the beginning of the tourney. Like someone said previously, the bubble situation may get me to, but not in the beginning of the tourney.
But certainly an interesting question.
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| Posted by: SiMor29 at January 11, 2007, 8:45 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
You'd have to assumer that 1 other player would have AA also, so your chances of improvement are pretty slim. That said, you could also fairly assume that two of others have KK, and also that two more have QQ. The only real unknown quantity is the guy who pushes UTG, and maybe the guy who pushes UTG+1, but even still, you'd have to think that a lot of these hands would be cancelling each other out and that you're a good shout to win. most likely the board would be low, as if anything most would be holding really high cards or high PPs.
Anything else is just absurd.
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| Posted by: PokerPete at January 11, 2007, 8:36 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by joosebuck
well the first 5 could be like KK QQ JJ 10s spread out and then some lower PP calling for odds & maybe a 56s 89s etc~
Sorry about that JB...it was a tounge in cheek comment about the pinochle deck
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| Posted by: PokerPete at January 11, 2007, 8:28 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
If the tourney rules are "Only the winner of each table moves on." then you swallow hard and call..... at a ten player table you'll be down 9 to 1 if you fold....and that's a long, long steep climb to the #1 spot.
If you call, you have a chance that no one else will trip...or a chance that you'll trip...or hit 4 cards of one of the two suits you hold.
It a total and complete coin toss and you'll live or die by it...but if you fold, you pretty much have lost your chance to move on.
...and BTW just what kinda deck (other than a pinochle deck) has enough aces/paint for 9 "all-ins" in front of you??? Or do your friends "all-in" on 72os pocket cards????
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| Posted by: JAMILE1 at January 11, 2007, 8:24 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
Damn biggest poker decision you WILL ever make, with a unreal wide range of cards out there, I'd lean toward folding and making it through day one, as most pros say that is a ital part of playing in the WSOP, but that would be damn hard to do.
which brings up, has that ever happened in the WSOP
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| Posted by: Freakakanus at January 11, 2007, 8:20 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by joosebuck
i understand that but do you really want to possibly go to the rail that fast? with your friends still in it? 10k of your own money down the drain?
Better to go to the rail with AA preflop then getting burned with a small boat on the first hand like the dude from last year.
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| Posted by: Beriac at January 11, 2007, 8:19 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
With aces I think I could. I'd lay down pretty much anything else, but with aces I could honestly hold my head up high and say "I put my chips in with the best possible hand, and luck got me".
Honestly, if I didn't think I could play my A-game in the WSOP, I wouldn't go... I think part of making the money in those tourneys is playing the same TAG/whatever game you normally play.
I mean, it's a fair question, I'm not saying it's obvious or anything, but I honestly think I would call.
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| Posted by: Freakakanus at January 11, 2007, 8:18 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
I would call.....yes, you could fold and let them take each other out, but someone is going to win that hand and become a instant big stack with the ability to muscle you out of later pots. Calling would be your best shot to be the big stack yourself. Sure it's a long tourney with a long way to go but when are you going to get a chance to octupal <-(sp?) up in one shot?
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| Posted by: Beriac at January 11, 2007, 8:13 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
I honestly believe I would call. Certainly you should from an EV perspective, but I believe with aces I would. I am just not going to fold aces pre-flop outside of the obscure bubble situations that we have discussed previously. Even against a full table of 10 people with random hole cards, aces are much better than 10% to win.
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| Posted by: joosebuck at January 11, 2007, 8:07 pm | | Topic: Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation? Forum: Card Chat |
You made your way to the WSOP from hard earned poker winnings, grinded out at the $1/2 table over the past year. You are there with a few other friends, all who satellite'd their ways in.
You sit down at your table and start to make conversation. The tourney director then announces "Shuffle up and deal".
You draw the big blind and look down at pocket aces. Not bad. Then UTG goes all in. And UTG+1. Then UTG+2. And everyone else goes all in infront of you.
What do you do? Can you really fold? Can you call?
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