| Posted by: Michael Orwell at April 4, 2007, 2:16 pm | | Topic: swings Forum: Card Chat |
The other day, I was just thinking about the swing phenomena myself .
I've had a winning streak for the last week and a half but in the past couple of days it seems to have been replaced by sheer bad luck. Nothing I do seems to work
Hopefully I'll get my mojo back in a hurry .
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| Posted by: starfall at June 11, 2006, 1:07 pm | | Topic: swings Forum: Card Chat |
Look at some of the big wins and losses that you see/experience - when 2 people make strong hands. Good players will tend to lose less by recognising when they're against an absolute monster, but when 2 players make monster hands, sometimes it's just luck as to who has the better monster, and that can create significant swings up and down.
If you look at stats then in the long run the luck evens out, but you're talking periods of months for professional players... as you look at shorter and shorter terms, the chance of some lucky or unlucky hands being a significant factor in your profitability increases. If you join a table and play one hand, your skill generally won't determine whether you make a profit on that hand - how the cards fall will. Over 10 hands, it's mostly luck. Over 100 hands, skill should be more evident, but luck can easily more that cover for any ongoing progression from skill. 1000 hands, then skill will generally be starting to show, but even then a serious hot or cold streak ca... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: F Paulsson at June 11, 2006, 10:54 am | | Topic: swings Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Nitram_80
But do these have to do with luck? How can you be real lucky for one week and then real unlucky for next week and it just repeats. I think if you are a good player but then you should win slowly but consistent. Sure I know there will be bad days , but weeks? Its just crazy to me.
A good player doesn't necessarily win "slowly." It's true that loose-aggressive players will have more massive swings than a tight-aggressive player will, but everyone has swings.
The difference is in the average win-rate after a whole lot of hands. The swings are there for everyone, but the winners win more when they're on rushes and lose less when they're running cold.
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| Posted by: Nitram_80 at June 11, 2006, 1:09 am | | Topic: swings Forum: Card Chat |
But do these have to do with luck? How can you be real lucky for one week and then real unlucky for next week and it just repeats. I think if you are a good player but then you should win slowly but consistent. Sure I know there will be bad days , but weeks? Its just crazy to me.
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| Posted by: starfall at June 10, 2006, 11:03 am | | Topic: swings Forum: Card Chat |
Even the pros sometimes have weeks or even months where they've lost money - it's the nature of the game. If you find it hard to deal with the swings, try Omaha H/L, because the swings are generally smaller than Holdem...
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| Posted by: wsorbust at June 9, 2006, 9:45 pm | | Topic: swings Forum: Card Chat |
Quote:
I dont change my game plan
Do you honestly? I know, I THINK I'm not at the time...but after being on a losing streak for a few days its easy to know I was. . .
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| Posted by: shortstacked at June 9, 2006, 9:33 pm | | Topic: swings Forum: Card Chat |
like I always say you cant win eveyday, i've gone on 2week gains and have gone longer with break even or down a little thats why I play about 8 differnt sites everyone hits differnt
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| Posted by: F Paulsson at June 9, 2006, 7:22 pm | | Topic: swings Forum: Card Chat |
I was going to post a PokerPatterns screenshot of the last 10k hands I've played, but it takes up a lot of space, and... Well, I've gone on one -150BB downswing over 2k hands (b'bye, one third of my bankroll), and I've had a 150BB (why hello and welcome back!) upswing over the same amount. It evens out; just be bankrolled for it.
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| Posted by: gord962 at June 9, 2006, 7:07 pm | | Topic: swings Forum: Card Chat |
I think that's just the nature of ring games. I know that's the way it is for me most of the time as well. Although I am up on ring games, my profit/hrs played is much lower in ring games than SNGs or MTTs
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| Posted by: Nitram_80 at June 9, 2006, 5:57 pm | | Topic: swings Forum: Card Chat |
Do you guys go on swings all the time? I say this because since I started playing(ring games), I win alot and follow by loosing alot. I dont change my game plan so maybe thats just the way poker goes . Its frustrating in that you build some nice money and then loose most of it. Or maybe its the site I play at , Partypoker .
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