| Posted by: shinedown.45 at July 26, 2007, 11:47 am | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
just google it......let me do it for you....
How Much Luck? How Much Skill?
- Ben Roberts
March 30th, 2007
If you've ever sat at a poker table, you've invariably heard the questions asked in the title of this article. While all serious players believe poker is a game of skill, they don't always agree on how skilful a game it really is. Some people believe the skill to luck ratio falls at somewhere around 70% - 30%, while others argue that the ratio is closer to 90% - 10%. If you ask me, however, I'll tell you something you won't hear from almost anybody else. Poker is 100% skilful.
Now, I know many of you are already skeptical about how I can make this kind of claim. What about bad beats? Or the times you're out-drawn on the river? How can I not figure these kinds of situations into my thinking? The fact is, I already have. Variance is part of poker and it would be highly unusual if bad beats didn't occasionally happen or if two-outers didn't sometimes hit on ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: rindhoops at July 26, 2007, 11:39 am | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
Can`t argue with you on this Diamond:
Quote: Originally Posted by diamond_06_06
I believe that poker is a game of skill only...
We all know that AA is not a favourite to win against any other hand 100%. And that 72o will win, and has to win against AA at least some of the time. Therefore bad beats are part of the game.... they are not unlucky they are just statistical probabilities.
.
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| Posted by: Madness_does at July 26, 2007, 9:21 am | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
Diamond that was an excellent post.
Poker is a game of skill. As far as luck is concerned I would just say that some days you get good cards and some days you don't. Trick to the game is to walk away from the table when your not getting good cards.
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| Posted by: diamond_06_06 at July 26, 2007, 8:05 am | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
I believe that poker is a game of skill only...
Most people who say that poker is a game of luck and that they were unlucky to be involved in a bad beat are missing one point. We all know that AA is not a favourite to win against any other hand 100%. And that 72o will win, and has to win against AA at least some of the time. Therefore bad beats are part of the game.... they are not unlucky they are just statistical probabilities.
If AA was to hold up every single time then that in itself would be lucky and make it a game of luck. Good players can loose in poker in the short term and not because of an unlucky session but because of the fact that the best hand statistically MUST loose some of the time. Its not luck its part of the game.
That is where the skill comes into it, in learning the numbers and nuances of the game etc. And the bad news is that even if you have read all the books, played an infinite number of hands and are now the best player in the world, you MUST loose... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: vanquish at July 26, 2007, 4:46 am | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by rindhoops
Becaues the theory luck evens out over time may be more complex,
like the old saying "lucky in cards unlucky in love"
maybe luck gets spread around evenly over different aspects
of your life.
Let's not be ridiculous. "Luck," as defined in the game of poker, means tendency of events to be positive from your perspective (you being dealt better cards than your opponent - or otherwise favoring you). Over an infinite number of hands, events would favor every player the same exact amount of times (luck is "divided" equally amongst all players, given that all players play infinite hands), thus meaning that skill would be the only true determinant of winning and losing. So basically, the pros WOULD win whilst your average Joes would lose over a period of infinite hands. Infinity is impossible to achieve, and since players generally play ery few hands in one given session (relative to infinity), the player w... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: amygrantfan at July 26, 2007, 3:04 am | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
i don't agree w/that last post. clearly luck plays a part in winning, but you can't control that. i think it's one of those things that over time the better players will tend to win more, but there will still alays be times when they lose because of luck. it's just like gambling in egas. take craps. you may get there to the table at the right time and win and leave with money. luck plays a part. but over time, the casino will always make out ahead. just like poker. over time, the better players will do well. but there will be times the not as good ones will win.
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| Posted by: rindhoops at July 26, 2007, 2:17 am | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
Yes I take on what you are all saying,
that luck (as we generally percieve it) evens out over time
so is therefore null.
So I guess that`s the answer then?
Poker is a game of pure skill only?
Which would mean only the best players would win nearly all the
time, barring the odd clanger and acts of god etc.
Why doesn`t that ttranslate to real life then?
Becaues the theory luck evens out over time may be more complex,
like the old saying "lucky in cards unlucky in love"
maybe luck gets spread around evenly over different aspects
of your life.
This could end up getting philisophical if we are not careful.
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| Posted by: ripptyde at July 26, 2007, 1:35 am | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by anquish
Your context is still unclear since you use the word "play" too aguely. If by "play" you mean Hold 'Em as a whole (infinite hands), "luck" would be 0% since everyone's "luck" would balance out over a period of infinite runs. However, "play" could also mean 1 tournament, 1 cash session, 1 month, or 1 good run. Thus, "luck" can not be given a number without ery specific context.
ex: One tournament is about 90% luck and 10% skill, one year of poker play may be 10% luck and 90% skill, etc.
QFT except I don't think the 'one tournament' part is an accurate percentage. I would lean towards a higher number only because the better players have a firm grasp on stack preservation and applying advanced maneuvers unlike the ast majority of donks.
In the long term naturally I would agree with your estimate(s) but would lean toward even a higher percentage of skill s luck. Over a... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: vanquish at July 26, 2007, 12:08 am | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by rindhoops
You lot are puposley being ague, u know what I mean in context.
Poker is a game of skill and luck, it`s impossible to say mathmatically (even if I could spell it) but we can hazzard an intelligent guess as to what % is skill and what % is luck, can`t we?
Ok I`ll re-phrase;
What % of your game do you regard as skilled play as opposed to lucky play?
Actually, putting it that way I think I would estimate it more Skill-90 luck-10. I don`t have that many lucky escapes, but then again, I have plenty of hands I should of won according to the odds that lost through bad luck. so I`ll stick to my original estimate of 25% luck 75% skill after all.
I guess the extent of the luck part of a persons game depends on how s\he plays as well.
I wish I hadn`t started this thread now,it`s way over my head
Your context is still unclear since you use the word "play" too aguely. If by "play" you... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: dj11 at July 25, 2007, 11:54 pm | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
Gotcha, lol.
In reality, almost any number you could come up with could be justified.
I prefer to think of it like this;
If I play correctly I will be able to manipulate luck somewhat, I can not make luck.
The skill is in how to manipulate luck so that even when that luck goes the other way, I don't feel like I did it wrong.
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| Posted by: rindhoops at July 25, 2007, 11:43 pm | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by dj11
Define luck, in context.
You lot are puposley being ague, u know what I mean in context.
Poker is a game of skill and luck, it`s impossible to say mathmatically (even if I could spell it) but we can hazzard an intelligent guess as to what % is skill and what % is luck, can`t we?
Ok I`ll re-phrase;
What % of your game do you regard as skilled play as opposed to lucky play?
Actually, putting it that way I think I would estimate it more Skill-90 luck-10. I don`t have that many lucky escapes, but then again, I have plenty of hands I should of won according to the odds that lost through bad luck. so I`ll stick to my original estimate of 25% luck 75% skill after all.
I guess the extent of the luck part of a persons game depends on how s\he plays as well.
I wish I hadn`t started this thread now,it`s way over my head
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| Posted by: rindhoops at July 25, 2007, 6:47 pm | | Topic: Luck, what percentage? Forum: Card Chat |
I was just wondering if there was a general consensus as towhat percentage of holdem Poker play is attributted to luck, around 25% is my guess?
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