| Posted by: Cheetah at November 8, 2007, 11:49 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Ronaldadio
So, if I look at the glass always being 1/2 full, I should be in for a major run soon???
No. It is a common misconception that if you had a bad run you are "due" a good run. Unfortunately, this is not true. The odds of hitting another bad run remain the same.
Quote: Originally Posted by Ronaldadio
8627 - 1 ??? WOW!!! I am the anti Christ or what???
Yes, ery unlucky. But if you were the anti Christ, you should have won all these races. Next time you decide to donate your FPPs, make sure you first make friends with the devil.
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| Posted by: Ronaldadio at November 8, 2007, 5:25 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Cheetah
Your win percentage was about 25.32%
Your cEV = -0.24*Stack = -361chips (for 1500 starting stack).
Your $EV < -0.24*BuyIn
The odds to lose 26 all-ins and tie once are approximately 8627 to 1
So, if I look at the glass always being 1/2 full, I should be in for a major run soon???
8627 - 1 ??? WOW!!! I am the anti Christ or what???
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| Posted by: Cheetah at November 8, 2007, 4:51 am | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Ronaldadio
This would have to be a guess, but I would say on average about 3 ppl all in including me.
Your win percentage was about 25.32%
Your cEV = -0.24*Stack = -361chips (for 1500 starting stack).
Your $EV < -0.24*BuyIn
The odds to lose 26 all-ins and tie once are approximately 8627 to 1
Below are the losses as a function of average number of callers. As you can see, as the number of donks increases, the average loss goes down. This is one manifestation of the concept of "fish schooling" which basically means that when there are many bad players, they mutually make their play less bad.
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| Posted by: Ronaldadio at November 7, 2007, 1:32 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by quads
This thread is just one of many reasons why online is becoming a joke. Then you even got posters attempting to give probable stats for asshole play. Please give me a break.
Thanks Chuck for pointing out this was for fun.
I have been on the recieving end of this, so I felt like giving it a go.
As for saying online poker is becoming a joke?
What you really mean is that you don`t know how to combat it.
I actually do quite well when I play properly in this. My stats show that this specific SNG tourny I actually win 1 in every 6.5 games I play. I do mean this specific tourny, not all SNG`s.
I play ery tight, wait to isolate the maniac heads up with decent holding (2 paint, any ace, any pair) then fire. Once the maniac is out I can then boss the table. Easy (Apart from when u call with AA, the maniac turns 64 and the flop is 357 )
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| Posted by: Ronaldadio at November 7, 2007, 1:22 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Cheetah
If you tell me the average number of opponents that called you, I will estimate the overall probability to be that "unlucky" in 27 games.
This would have to be a guess, but I would say on average about 3 ppl all in including me.
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| Posted by: KingNothing4 at November 6, 2007, 11:10 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
haha ya im slow but i didnt look real hard at them symbols at the end of the title but its play lie a donk or a fish...for any other slow ppl such as myself
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| Posted by: wsorbust at November 6, 2007, 11:07 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
Whoops. Could have swore it was going to be a greater winning % than usual, by the sounds of his first post there. That's some hard luck, especially if you're at Stars.
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| Posted by: quads at November 6, 2007, 10:59 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
Yea, just finished a days work, still in office, and went online. Think I was harsh there. But still the poster could care less about FPP's like myself, but many broken down shoes out there, take it serious and get excited about winning a seat to bogus 100k tourney.
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| Posted by: quads at November 6, 2007, 10:50 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
This thread is just one of many reasons why online is becoming a joke. Then you even got posters attempting to give probable stats for asshole play. Please give me a break.
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| Posted by: Ronaldadio at November 6, 2007, 6:38 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by ChuckTs
Not ery many
By probability it should be like 30 or %40 (random s most pairs + premiums), but it could be anything with only 27 games. I'm guessing you did well by the tone of your post
How would this be the case Chuck? 30 or 40% seems high to me
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| Posted by: Ronaldadio at November 6, 2007, 6:37 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
Nope, u were all wrong
Out of 27, I lost 26, and one was a split pot (flop 888 turn A river 8) now that is going against the odds!!!
One hand I pushed all in with Qs10s. 3 other guys all in. Flop AsJs2s. At this stage I could see the other 3 guys cards. One had AA, other QQ, other AJ. Turn 7h, flop Jd - lost to a FH Aces full
I am assuming from this small experiment that the ppl who go all in with poor holdings have the same kind of issues, its just now and again they catch?
Or could it be the Lord was trying to tell me something
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| Posted by: ChuckTs at November 6, 2007, 5:00 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Ronaldadio
I played 27 games, pushed allin first hand regardless.
Guess how many I won???
Not ery many
By probability it should be like 30 or %40 (random s most pairs + premiums), but it could be anything with only 27 games. I'm guessing you did well by the tone of your post
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| Posted by: Small Town Playboy at November 6, 2007, 4:34 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
thats an absolute disgrace how can u play like that!!!!!
only kiddin bet u won a few first hands so i will say maybe 3 games? one in 9 wouldnt be bad
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| Posted by: Ronaldadio at November 6, 2007, 4:29 pm | | Topic: Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{>< Forum: Card Chat |
Hi all.
I was sitting at work ery bored so for something to do I decided to play like a complete idiot.
I thought it would be fun to see how it feels I would go all in on the first hand - regardless. I was using my fpp`s on stars to win a place in the $100k (70fpp a time) NL holdem, 9 players at table.
I played 27 games, pushed allin first hand regardless.
Guess how many I won???
A lot of you are good with stats - what do the stats say???
Before u all start having a go, it was For Fun!!! So don`t start with serious comments but do take a guess.
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