| Posted by: aliengenius at December 1, 2007, 3:43 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
In a recent interview Phil Laak gives 12:1 stack to bet ratio as what he is willing to call.
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| Posted by: aliengenius at November 21, 2007, 4:19 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Adams and Schwartz actual ran the math in their recent Bluff article (Nov., p. 106), and came up with 8.5% as being about the amount you should be willing to call to crack AA/an overpair.
Their article reminded me of this thread, so here are the percentages of your stack you should be willing to call off to crack AA, depending on your hand (note that this is where AA open shoves every flop, and these are the "win %" for the top hands that called):
66-99: 8.7%
JJ-KK: 8.6%
TT: 8.5%
22-55: 8.4%
87s, 76s, 65s: 4.1%
T9s: 4%
98s: 3.9%
97s, 86s, 64s: 3.7%
87o, 76o, 65o: 3.4%
J7s, JTo: 3%
Q9o, 43o: 2.7%
K5s, 72s: 2.1%
Aks, A5s: 1.9%
A8s, A7s: 1.6%
AKo, A5o: 1%
A8o, A7o: 0.7%
Conclusion: you really shouldn't try to crack them unless stacks are VERY deep.
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| Posted by: K_Kahne_Fan at November 17, 2007, 2:32 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Thank y'all for the replies. What it comes down to for me is that I have to stop looking at game play as just this hand and look at the long term results. Which is hard to do, but I guess it's what may keep my BR from going down and start going up.
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| Posted by: jeffred1111 at November 17, 2007, 8:05 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote:
It all depends on gut feeling and knowing the other players moves. chip stack and postion in the game. You don't always play the same.
No, set-mining is all about pot odds + implied odds.
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| Posted by: crzycal at November 17, 2007, 7:42 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
It all depends on gut feeling and knowing the other players moves. chip stack and postion in the game. You don't always play the same.
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| Posted by: aliengenius at November 17, 2007, 3:18 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by K_Kahne_Fan
However, my 1st Q to you was; if illan bets out $10 and has $50 stacked behind (5:1) we wouldn't call? But if he has $10 + $200 (20:1) we would? I understand your long term ideal plan:
for a net loss of $3,350
for a net gain of +16,000
But that would be if everything were to play exactly right. As we know in poker it will not always play exactly right...
So, shouldn't we try to take their $50 if we can, instead of losing $200 because it's right?
I really don't know how else to explain it to you. You don't call the $10 if he only has $50 because you would be calling more money than you can win long term. Do you understand that when you don't hit the set you lose the $10? You are going to lose $75 ($10 x 7.5 times you miss) for every $50 (stack x the one time you hit) you make: that's -EV.
(btw, I (and the author of the article posted) made a mistake in the math: you will flop a set only 118 times e... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: jeffred1111 at November 17, 2007, 12:38 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote:
The OP and I are speaking in regards to justifying PP's to the xBB bets, however, you (and others) are speaking of betting PP's with regards to ratio of illan's stack. So in essence I should focus more on how much I may get from illans stack (10:1) as apposed to how much I will lose from mine (xBB)?
However, my 1st Q to you was; if illan bets out $10 and has $50 stacked behind (5:1) we wouldn't call? But if he has $10 + $200 (20:1) we would? I understand your long term ideal plan:
for a net loss of $3,350
for a net gain of +16,000
But that would be if everything were to play exactly right. As we know in poker it will not always play exactly right...
So, shouldn't we try to take their $50 if we can, instead of losing $200 because it's right?
This is pretty difficult to understand and is the mark of a poker player that is no longer a beginner but an advanced beginner: the immediate results do not matter, what does matter is how EV (... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: K_Kahne_Fan at November 16, 2007, 11:32 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
BTW, these are not meant to be argumentative if they sound that way. My posts are truly for my (and maybe others) learning purposes.
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| Posted by: K_Kahne_Fan at November 16, 2007, 11:31 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
I understand 10:1>9:1-, and I understand 10:1 means they have $10 on the table and $100+ in their stack. But the original poster (I think) and myself are looking at PP with a question as a max (BB) bet, not a min (stack) bet as you (and others) are suggesting.
Quote: Originally Posted by DarkAndEarly
...How many times the big blind should I be willing to go pre flop?
The OP and I are speaking in regards to justifying PP's to the xBB bets, however, you (and others) are speaking of betting PP's with regards to ratio of illan's stack. So in essence I should focus more on how much I may get from illans stack (10:1) as apposed to how much I will lose from mine (xBB)?
However, my 1st Q to you was; if illan bets out $10 and has $50 stacked behind (5:1) we wouldn't call? But if he has $10 + $200 (20:1) we would? I understand your long term ideal plan:
for a net loss of $3,350
for a net gain of +16,000
But that would be if everything were to ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: aliengenius at November 16, 2007, 11:08 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by K_Kahne_Fan
This is what I was speaking of 8:1 is "not enough", but 10:1 is? I know you were taking this from someone else, so it's not directed at you, just using your quote. If 8:1 is not enough then 7:1, 6:1, 5:1... would not either? Why miss those chances of taking money? I understand we're supposed to make the "correct" call everytime and we'll come out ahead, but all hands are different and could be a 10:1 loser and an 8:1 winner, why not play both? And yes, I am learning the mathematics of poker still, which is why I question this (and why I'm on CC to learn ).
Ok.
Right, 10:1 is the absolute min ratio (imo). Thus 9:1, 8:1, 7:1, 6:1, 5:1 etc. is NOT enough. Why? Because if your opponent only has, say 5x the bet behind him, you are not going to make enough money long term to make up for the amount you have to call.
Say you and your opponent both have $50, and he bet $10. If you have 1,000 trials, where yo... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: K_Kahne_Fan at November 16, 2007, 9:42 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by aliengenius
... Using the easy 10:1 rule...
...8:1 really isn't enough...
This is what I was speaking of 8:1 is "not enough", but 10:1 is? I know you were taking this from someone else, so it's not directed at you, just using your quote. If 8:1 is not enough then 7:1, 6:1, 5:1... would not either? Why miss those chances of taking money? I understand we're supposed to make the "correct" call everytime and we'll come out ahead, but all hands are different and could be a 10:1 loser and an 8:1 winner, why not play both? And yes, I am learning the mathematics of poker still, which is why I question this (and why I'm on CC to learn ).
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| Posted by: jeffred1111 at November 16, 2007, 9:35 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
The last article doesn't take into consideration the time the original raiser was squeezing/stealing/raising and we actually win the hand unimproved. Sure, it'll be rare with 66, but with 88+ (up to JJ) it can and does happen.
But I'm not keen on calling with pp's either: raising I like, reraising I might also fancy, but flat calling hardly gives us good enough odds HU, unless I'm playing an antes/straddled or equal blind game (5/5 for example). Set-mining in cash games is nice in soft/passive games or in ery, ery deep games where you may not stack your opponent but produce 120+ bb pots.
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| Posted by: aliengenius at November 16, 2007, 9:14 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by K_Kahne_Fan
What if I would have won all of the 3:1++'s and lose all of the 10:1's?
Oh my, you need serious help with the whole idea of the math of poker and the concept of expected alue.
Start here.
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| Posted by: K_Kahne_Fan at November 16, 2007, 9:07 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
I understand each hand is different and you have to make a call based on the situation, but in using generalities, you should only call if the odds are 10:1? So if their stack is 3:1/4:1/5:1, I should not call? What if I would have won all of the 3:1++'s and lose all of the 10:1's? Granted I would definitely be hurting either way, but I would be hurting a lot more since I didn't take 3:1++'s money.
I highlighted if because since y'all are using if's, I will too
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| Posted by: aliengenius at November 16, 2007, 5:54 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Chevren
I read two articles about this recently and I'm going to copy paste them here different thoughts from each instructer, I usually play the way Willis describes but Wallaces article shed some light on some deeper mathmatics involved. good reads.
In the first Willis says that stack sizes should be 8x the bet to make the call. I say 10x, just to make out odds a little better, and Wallace, in the second article points out why 8x isn't enough.
In the second article Wallace simply does the math to show you why you need to have deep enough stacks to make this a good call (in his example the bet is $14 and the stack size is $129. Using the easy 10:1 rule we see right away that our opponent would need to have at least $140 behind to make the call. Wallace gives the reasons that 8:1 really isn't enough:
1. rake,
2. you wont stack him every single time,
3. possibly raised off the hand by another opponent,
4. lose to bigge... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Chevren at November 16, 2007, 11:23 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
From Chris Wallace at RealPokerTraining.com
Almost every one of my no-limit students lately seem to be playing too many hands. And they aren’t just loose, they are loose in the same way, and they are all quoting some of the same books and articles as justification for their plays. What is causing this problem? They all overestimate their implied odds. So here’s the real scoop on implied odds.
Stop believing everything you read. Give it some real thought, even if it comes from an expert, and decide for yourself if it is actually sound advice, or just something some poker player wrote who may win money without knowing why or being able to teach what he does. Once you start thinking for yourself you can …
Learn to break down hand histories and use PokerTracker to check your own statistics. We’ll do a hand breakdown in a moment, and PokerTracker just isn’t that complicated, get it and use it, so that you can find our for yourself if 66 is profitable in early position (in most games yo... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Chevren at November 16, 2007, 11:21 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
I read two articles about this recently and I'm going to copy paste them here different thoughts from each instructer, I usually play the way Willis describes but Wallaces article shed some light on some deeper mathmatics involved. good reads.
From Brian Willis at thepokercamp.com
Set Mining - WillisNYC
This is such a basic concept of ring poker. Yet it constantly amazes me at how few people know and apply the concept of ‘set mining'. The concept is based on the odds of a person, who holds a pocket pair, flopping a set. Those odds are 12.5%. That percentage converts to one time in eight, a person holding a pocket pair will flop a set. A set is a ery powerful ‘made' hand. It is almost always ahead on the flop and is likely to be the winner on the river unimproved. You can also ‘catch up' to flopped or made straights and flushes by pairing the board. A set is a hand most people who play ring NL are quite willing to put all their chips in the pot upon the flop. ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Blazing_Saddler at November 16, 2007, 9:48 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
I used to play small pocket pairs like that. Limp and call. Since moving to cash games, I have kicked it out of my game pretty much. It has saved me a lot of money.
As a rule. I don't limp with anything as a rule. Sure you can bust someone if you hit a set. They can also bust you if they hit a bigger set, it may not happen often, but it has to go in to your calculations. Take in to account all the times you call a raise and lose, and it starts to get expensive. Also take the times you call with say 66 and the flop comes 2 10 5 . Are you going to let go of it with one bet at you. as you are more often that not going to be out of position.
I tend to limp if it is a multiway pot, and I am mid to late position. Then make my decision to call a raise, depending on how much odds and implied odds are available, taking in to account reverse implied odds too.
Never say never, but one thing I hate doing is being the first in to a pot and limping. It isn't something I do often
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| Posted by: chinababy8 at November 14, 2007, 4:19 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by DarkAndEarly
When I have a small pocket pair (9's or lower) I'll always try to limp in. How many times the big blind should I be willing to go pre flop?
depends on situation and position , but most of the time at a 10 people tabe call up to 3-4x BB.
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| Posted by: Joe_Mac at November 13, 2007, 12:19 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
I tend to lean more towards calling up to 5 times the BB with any pocket pair below 9's. But like everyone else has stated, it depends on situation, and position.
If everyone limps to me, I will raise with any pocket pair. chance are you have the best hand, so why not take it down pre-flop. But make sure your going to be ending the betting. The last thing you want to do is raise with 22, and someone behind you goes over top of your raise. So i would have to say the most accurate answer to this question would be;
what is your situation, your chip stack, and your position at the table? Are you playing against reckless people, or passive?
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| Posted by: aliengenius at November 12, 2007, 11:28 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Vollycat
It was my understanding that the 'call the 10% rule' was that if their total stack was 10% of your total. i.e. he goes in for 2,000 and you have 20,000--calling with just about any 2 is near justified (given the type of player of course).
Calling a raise that is 10% of your stack doesn't make any sense to me. What if he has you outstacked? Still OK to call that raise? It has been a LONG time since I read that chapter, so I could be off my rocker confused.
Harrington's rule has nothing to do with set mining, it's a completely different topic (please start a new thread if you want to discuss it).
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| Posted by: Vollycat at November 12, 2007, 10:21 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
It was my understanding that the 'call the 10% rule' was that if their total stack was 10% of your total. i.e. he goes in for 2,000 and you have 20,000--calling with just about any 2 is near justified (given the type of player of course).
Calling a raise that is 10% of your stack doesn't make any sense to me. What if he has you outstacked? Still OK to call that raise? It has been a LONG time since I read that chapter, so I could be off my rocker confused.
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| Posted by: zippyflounder at November 12, 2007, 9:58 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
if I have stack i will call bets up to 4 bb and I am religious about bailing out if I dont see my set on the flop or my pair is over all cards on the flop. I will even lead out utg with small pp's to a table full of limper/calling station types. If i get a re raise from my 2.5/3 bet utg then its a matter of whom it is, if I have stack on them if I call or not.
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| Posted by: aliengenius at November 12, 2007, 9:52 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by 3 Olives
Aliengenius,
I agree with this only if you can guarantee:
1. There will not be any additional betting
2. The player is likely to make this move (all-in) with A/X as he is to do it with a PP
If there is betting after the flop (i.e. the player is not all-in) then calling off 10% of your chips pre-flop seems like a bad decision in my opinion. Only when the player is all in would I follow this advice.
I believe you got this idea from Harrington on Hold 'em: Expert Strategy for No-limit Tournaments. If that is the case I would suggest going back to re-read that chaper, I think you misunderstood what he meant.
I agree that there are no absolutes, I was just giving a guideline.
1. Right, you don't want to get squeezed, obvioulsy. If you are not closing the betting, and you think it might get raised again behind you, this might be a spot to fold.
2. Not exactly sure what you are talking about h... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: KingCurtis at November 10, 2007, 3:24 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by aliengenius
As a general rule, implied odds allow you to call up to 10% of the smaller of the stacks. For example, you have 2,000 and your opponent has 1,200 you could call a bet of 120; if you have 3,000 and your opponent has 15,000 you can call a bet of 300.
No real absolutes, as has been noted, but that's a starting guideline.
nice info allen havent heard of this before but am writing it down for future reference!!!
it seems to be avery good way to start playing PP's
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| Posted by: aliengenius at November 10, 2007, 3:20 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
As a general rule, implied odds allow you to call up to 10% of the smaller of the stacks. For example, you have 2,000 and your opponent has 1,200 you could call a bet of 120; if you have 3,000 and your opponent has 15,000 you can call a bet of 300.
No real absolutes, as has been noted, but that's a starting guideline.
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| Posted by: KingCurtis at November 10, 2007, 2:24 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by 3 Olives
As a general rule...
If you are describing how you play, and you have to use the word "always" you are doing something wrong.
There are no always in poker...just like "there is no crying in baseball."
Your above thread should read something to the effect of:
On a short handed table where 4+ people are seeing every flop for a single bet; if the person to my right raises and I have a pp smaller then 99 should I call, raise or fold?
I aggree you cant go in with a set pattern....the big winners are always switching gears and changing their play up to fool everyone else you keep limping in witht hose small pairs and eventually it will be noticed and eventually your traps or betting patterns after limping in will be folded to.
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| Posted by: K_Kahne_Fan at November 9, 2007, 10:29 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Yeah, at a tourney in Vegas a lady took half my stack when I called her all in; she had 2-2, I had AKs (I hit nadda). Two hands later she finished me off when I went AI with 7-7 and she called with QJos (hit a J). So... it depends :-)
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| Posted by: reglardave at November 9, 2007, 8:56 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Like so many questions of this type, the answer is..........it depends. This is such a situational decision, based on chip stacks, position, # of other playersin the pot, yasayasa, that, well......it depends. As a general rule, um, it depends.
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| Posted by: DarkAndEarly at November 9, 2007, 8:17 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
When I have a small pocket pair (9's or lower) I'll always try to limp in. How many times the big blind should I be willing to go pre flop?
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| Posted by: -2222- at March 13, 2006, 8:52 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
I dunno if this is true but Ive heard that you trip a pp 1 out of 3 times you get them. .[/quote]
Genuine advice. Learn your basic poker maths before you play another hand! Without it, you will never have a chance.
Good luck at the tables.
Paul
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| Posted by: Mad_Mike989 at March 13, 2006, 12:57 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Thanks Joose I didnt really know but that was what i thought i heard
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| Posted by: ~~Shelynn~~ at March 12, 2006, 11:37 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
4 Dogs and joosebuck totally agree with you both. Guess I've been burnt to much of that kind but have been burnt with poc. A's and K's so I'd rather sit back and play it cool for a bit.
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| Posted by: Four Dogs at March 12, 2006, 11:12 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by Mad_Mike989
I dunno if this is true but Ive heard that you trip a pp 1 out of 3 times you get them. Thats not relevant really but just a handy little thing to have in mind.
If it were true it certainly would be relevant. But...
Quote: Originally Posted by joosebuck
no - it's 1 out of every 7.5 pp you get.
joosebuck is correct. Looks like this forum is going to benefit you.
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| Posted by: Mad_Mike989 at March 12, 2006, 9:20 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
I like to limp with pps 2-7s because alot of times they get way out flopped by higher cards or bigger pps. 8s-As I like to raise 4-5xbb because more often than not Ill get action out for at least 1 player. I dunno if this is true but Ive heard that you trip a pp 1 out of 3 times you get them. Thats not relevant really but just a handy little thing to have in mind.
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| Posted by: burntalot at March 12, 2006, 9:04 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
low pair i will call the blind and the same again if there is a raise after my call.a high pair up to queens i tend to call or raise 300 or 400 aces kings big bet and willing to go allin if i have too
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| Posted by: F Paulsson at March 12, 2006, 7:48 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by JessieBear15331
Here's what strategy I use when I have pocket pair:
If I have a low pocket pair, like pocket fours, I will raise a fair amount (100-300) pre-flop. If I have a high pocket pair (face pockets or bullets) I raise a substantial amount (300-600) pre-flop, but never go all in pre-flop, no matter what I have. I have been burned way too many times by going in with the nut starting hand, only to have another player earn a three-of-a-kind or even a FH on the flop.
In a sit'n'go? A multi-table tournament? I presume you're not talking cash games.
How many players at the table, what are the stack sizes, what's your position, has there been any action before you and what day of the week is it?
Having a basic strategy to playing is all good, but when it comes to pocket pairs, there's just so many things that factor in that no specific strategy will ever fit all - or even most - scenarios.
That said, if it's early in a... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: joosebuck at March 12, 2006, 7:19 pm | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
low pp, you shouldnt be raising. hell you shouldnt even be calling from anything but mp with limpers/lp. on button/in the blinds with 3+ limpers ill minraise.
but youre only gonna stick with low pp if you hit the set, and the only odds you have to hit that justify you only calling or minraising with 4 followers preflop.
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| Posted by: JessieBear15331 at March 11, 2006, 2:30 am | | Topic: Pocket pair Forum: Card Chat |
Here's what strategy I use when I have pocket pair:
If I have a low pocket pair, like pocket fours, I will raise a fair amount (100-300) pre-flop. If I have a high pocket pair (face pockets or bullets) I raise a substantial amount (300-600) pre-flop, but never go all in pre-flop, no matter what I have. I have been burned way too many times by going in with the nut starting hand, only to have another player earn a three-of-a-kind or even a FH on the flop.
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