| Posted by: happygobrokey at September 21, 2006, 11:16 pm | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
aka23 is ridiculously ahead of expectation and can afford to put his money in a ariety of places. he's rolled to take the hits and just wonders if he is getting shafted. it looks like the outcomes are on the order of lightning striking him. this paigow looks shady for sure. and as for being +19k in ~4 months of playing casinos, incredible. good stuff!
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| Posted by: spearmaster at September 19, 2006, 5:41 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Quote: Originally Posted by Trezz
Nice to see your posting Spearmaster, haven't seen you round for a while or I've not been where your posting.
Hey Trezz -
Been damn busy lately - and just in the middle of a trip now, was with the Meister the other day in Vegas.
Keeping the posting to a minimum now as my time is much more limited, but still around nearly every day.
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| Posted by: chuchu59 at September 18, 2006, 7:56 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Quote: Originally Posted by Trezz
I just don't get it...You start a thread about casino software that you feel is dodgy, you get feedback that shows the long and short of things, then you go and deposit into another casino using the same software...
Why deposit? The stuff compulsive gamblers(including me) are made up of.
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| Posted by: aka23 at September 16, 2006, 5:14 pm | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Quote: Originally Posted by Trezz
I see what your say (not to be confused with understanding). What I'm having a hard time rationalising is why you'd bother starting a thread asking if people think the card out comes were iffy?
You get the answers from people including Spearmaster who knows a thing or two and then you go drop more cash at a casino that uses the same software.
Reminds me of a Homer Simpson episode where Homer touches the stove, gets his hand burnt and keeps touching the thing wondering why his hand gets burnt
Having a good chance of gaining several hundred dollars was worth the risk of dealing wth the SW to me. I might gain $200 with the non-random SW instead of the expected $400 with random SW, but I still am likely to come out ahead.
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| Posted by: Trezz at September 16, 2006, 11:05 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Quote: Originally Posted by aka23
Last time I came out ahead, in spite of the dodgy SW. With random SW, the bonus has an average return of ~+$400 using optimal strategy. Even with some non-random elements, there is a good chance I can come out ahead again.
I see what your say (not to be confused with understanding). What I'm having a hard time rationalising is why you'd bother starting a thread asking if people think the card out comes were iffy?
You get the answers from people including Spearmaster who knows a thing or two and then you go drop more cash at a casino that uses the same software.
Reminds me of a Homer Simpson episode where Homer touches the stove, gets his hand burnt and keeps touching the thing wondering why his hand gets burnt
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| Posted by: aka23 at September 16, 2006, 6:02 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Quote: Originally Posted by Trezz
I just don't get it...You start a thread about casino software that you feel is dodgy, you get feedback that shows the long and short of things, then you go and deposit into another casino using the same software...
Last time I came out ahead, in spite of the dodgy SW. With random SW, the bonus has an average return of ~+$400 using optimal strategy. Even with some non-random elements, there is a good chance I can come out ahead again.
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| Posted by: Trezz at September 16, 2006, 5:45 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Quote: Originally Posted by aka23
The outcome was all support reps and the manager ignored my emails.
I foolishly tried another wager21 casino today.
I just don't get it...You start a thread about casino software that you feel is dodgy, you get feedback that shows the long and short of things, then you go and deposit into another casino using the same software...
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| Posted by: aka23 at September 16, 2006, 4:04 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Quote: Originally Posted by doober
Seems pretty outrageous... Keep us posted on the outcome.
The outcome was all support reps and the manager ignored my emails.
I foolishly tried another wager21 casino today. A 200% bonus with 10xB wagering sounds ery promising. Unfortunately, I only won 6% of $10+ hands in Pai Gow poker. I'm definitely not going to clear the bonus on this game! At least I didn't draw any matching hands this time.
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| Posted by: aka23 at July 17, 2006, 8:22 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Quote: Originally Posted by Annorax
Is that calculation for a single deck or an infinite deck? Paigow is a single deck game.
Still, this is pretty insane.
For single deck, I get 1 in 92,270
(3/52)^7 * 7P7 = 2.13x10^-9 * 5040 = 1.072x10^-5 = 1 in 92,270
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| Posted by: spearmaster at July 17, 2006, 6:45 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Run, don't walk.
One time with the same alue cards is possible but quite rare. Three or four hands is ridiculous.
Three or four hands in a row - I'd ask you to show proof but you've already shown a few screenshots.
No bonus game could possibly cause this to happen - not ery funny, Soflat.
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| Posted by: Annorax at July 17, 2006, 6:18 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Quote: Originally Posted by aka23
In one of the two hands all 7 cards were the same alue. I believe the odds of that in an infinite deck without a joker are:
1/13^7 / 7P7 = 1 in 12,450 . Even with the joker, it is not "pretty normal."
Is that calculation for a single deck or an infinite deck? Paigow is a single deck game.
Still, this is pretty insane.
@the OP: Have you had one of thse screwy hands where you could use the joker to put an ace high 2 card hand up and force a push? That might be a decent workaround as long as they're not always giving you the straight and two random rags that leave you no options.
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| Posted by: bpb at July 17, 2006, 5:20 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
I don't know anything about Wager21's pai gow game.
I do know that I saw some oddities in their ideo poker. I ran some binomial distribution calculations based on what I saw, and determined that there's a 1 in 23,000,000,000 chance that they are dealing a fair ideo poker game. So I wouldn't be at all surprised if they're cheating like dogs at the pai gow as well.
NB - I don't have the notes on my ideo poker observations. But if you'd like to check for yourself, observe how often you draw a pair in their 10s or better game when you hold 1 or 2 high cards. A few dozen trials on their 5-play game should be enough to show a statistical anomaly in several million to 1 range.
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| Posted by: aka23 at July 17, 2006, 2:33 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Quote: Originally Posted by Mousey
I'm no math head, but I do play Pai Gow at B&M casinos and if I saw that same weirdity more than once in one session, I'd be out of there in a heartbeat.
I playing through a wagering requirement. Even with the extra loss from matching hands, I still have an expected return of ~$125 after the bonus.
I've attached another one without jokers. I haven't seen matching suits, so they may be using single deck, making this even less likely than the numbers above.
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| Posted by: aka23 at July 17, 2006, 12:46 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
Quote: Originally Posted by tennis_balls
these hands seem pretty normal for pai gow.....i have no idea of the reputation of wager21 software.....you might do a search here and see what comes up
In one of the two hands all 7 cards were the same alue. I believe the odds of that in an infinite deck without a joker are:
1/13^7 / 7P7 = 1 in 12,450 . Even with the joker, it is not "pretty normal."
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| Posted by: tennis_balls at July 17, 2006, 12:32 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
these hands seem pretty normal for pai gow.....i have no idea of the reputation of wager21 software.....you might do a search here and see what comes up
i just checked and casinomeister has wager21 listed as "under observation" which to me translates as "dodgy"
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| Posted by: aka23 at July 17, 2006, 12:12 am | | Topic: Suspicious Matching Hands at Player's Vegas Forum: Casino Meister |
I've attached some screen shots from Pai Gow Poker at Player's Vegas. Note that the dealer has straights with the same range of cards as I do. In one case, all 7 cards are the same alue. Tie's go to the dealer, so this prevents the dealer from losing or causes him to win. This has been happening to me far more than statiscally expected. At one point, the dealer tied 4 hands in a row, each one preventing me from getting a win.
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