| Posted by: party_steve at February 11, 2005, 11:43 am | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | FeelingLucky wrote: Sorry to sorta hijack this thread, but I noticed you make a play in here that I see being done quite a bit, while I am not doing it myself...
After the flop you had a sweet drawing hand with plenty of nice outs, though you currently had nothing. Personally, I wouldn't push the pot up with "just" a draw, no matter how good - BUT, I notice that a lot of people not only bet, but raise, reraise and cap with hands exactly like yours in similar situations. (I would be extra hesitant to raise in this situation because I would figgure that several people have me beat at this point, for sure. I would probably end up calling down whatever bets are made on the flop...)
It gives me the feeling I am missing out on some valuable tricks. Would gladly hear some thoughts, tips or mockery about this - I think it would improve my game.
Another thing that wasn't mentioned here is misinformation, which increases your implied odds. If zm_dawg simply called the raises b... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Loke at February 11, 2005, 11:35 am | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | FeelingLucky wrote: Btw, I'm not really looking for the correct statistical answer here - more a rule of thumb that would let me make these decisions in the limited time I have at the table.
"Great, I have a nut flush draw on the flop, two people are betting into me - this is a clear raise situation" or similar
I think you just gave your own rule. You are basically 2-1 to hit your flush with two cards to go. You are getting 2-1 on every bet as long as two people are in the pot with you. And, keep in mind, if the third of your suit hits, i.e. you catch your flush, betting WILL slow way down. Once it's on the board, you'll be lucky to get one bet to call. No one is likely to raise without a full house. So I think you have to bet for value while you can, which is on the turn. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: zm_dawg at February 11, 2005, 6:42 am | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | | I just done with work so I'm not going into any math....in a multiway pot if I have a nut flush draw in LP I'm going to pump it as long as there isn't a pair on the board, if it gets reraised I'm going to have to put someone on a set especially if it's a rock, if it's not a rock who knows it may be someone with a small flush draw or open ended. I have to believe that pot odds justified my crying call and for me I had to see what the idiot was reraising with on the turn lol. If i'm in EP....depending on who's at my table i may bet it knowing that an aggro next to me will raise on his ace. I have no idea where to take this lol......umm I'm trying to reread thread, I agree with you guys saying why reraise with only the draw if your not going to get a free card. When I look at it, by time it gets back to me it's already been raised and it's down to three of us, 2 of who have made hands already so I guess I figured to get the extra bets just in case I hit. With Petro cold calling my raise I believe if I didn't hit... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: FeelingLucky at February 11, 2005, 4:17 am | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | FeelingLucky wrote: your-%-chance-to-make-the-hand times nr-of-players-putting-money-in-the-pot is greater than 100, you're wise to raise?
Btw, I'm not really looking for the correct statistical answer here - more a rule of thumb that would let me make these decisions in the limited time I have at the table.
"Great, I have a nut flush draw on the flop, two people are betting into me - this is a clear raise situation" or similar | | Static Link |
| Posted by: FeelingLucky at February 11, 2005, 4:03 am | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | Wow, this sure sparked some discussion And I love it.
(zm_dawg, in no way would I try to critisize or judge your play, but that flop raising just echoed some moves I had been curious about for the last couple of days, so I seized the opportunity to ask)
Great explanations Homer and Jek, I hadn't considered the multiway action in this example. So let me see if I can simplity this into a couple of statements that you can agree/disagree to:
1) If there are multiple ppl putting money into the pot, and you have "enough" outs to get a winner hand, you should pump the pot to get maximum value for those times you win it (and tough luck if you don't make your draw).
2) If you are heads up in the same situation, you'd be wrong to pump the pot for value (if we totally disregard the possibility to steal the pot).
Would that be correct? Then the question would be where the "enough" cut off is in case 1). I think in percentages (not odds) myself, so would it be right ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: SmackMBUp at February 10, 2005, 10:33 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | Well, I like this example so much that I gave it another few thoughts. Finally I figured out that he has 11 outs on the turn (Ad excluded as I assume Petro is holding it alongside a K) and only 10 on the river (when pairing Xd with any blank card to come). That reduces our chances to win this hand to ~40%.
Making the flush on the turn, there are still 16 cards left in the deck, that you will lose your hand against. 2x A, 1x J, 3x 6, 3x 8 and 7 diamond suited cards. Those reverse implied odds have to be taken into consideration as well before going wild on the flop.
There's no way you have a clear 45% chance of winning this hand, I think it's more like 40 if Petro is an absolute idiot and far less if he has the Ad. But I can't exactly do that math. With the pocket cards I'm assuming, you're "only" 65,2% favorite on the turn as well!
Therefore, if we're talking serious maths, then capping the flop is actually only very, very, very little +EV imo. I think nobody has tho... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Cha Ngo at February 10, 2005, 9:53 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | Quote: I did well at IP for the first time
Interpoker?
Hell RAISE on the river.
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| Posted by: zm_dawg at February 10, 2005, 8:57 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | | Wow, I didn't think this would get so much discussion. It was more of a hand that I just thought about all day, not really if it was played well or misplayed....I read it and still think I had a feeling to call the raises preflop...my raise on the flop was to pump it up a little bit. I thought about the Ad, but told myself this is what the flop is and I'm going to work with it. With that much raising before the flop I knew I was up against a few nice hands. If I didn't hit turn i'd be check/calling. and......I just wanted to make sure pot was raked lol...I did well at IP for the first time +215 w/ bonus so.....just thnkin wow could've been $260....... | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Cha Ngo at February 10, 2005, 8:32 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | Quote: How's calling a bet when you know you're losing? Infinitly negative value, think about that.
I know what you are saying here but a $2.00 call into a $53.00 pot and no chance of a raise behind you? You only need to win one out of about 25 to show profit. And peace of mind has value, no? Can he be more that 96% sure he is losing?
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| Posted by: SmackMBUp at February 10, 2005, 8:22 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | I know you intend well and counting outs here seems plain and simple, but he does definitely not have 12 outs, nor can we be sure winning this pot in a flush situation. Ad is no out as with this much action on the flop we can assume that someone has made at least 2 pair including an ace if not hit a set, which is even worse. There are many cards hurting us at the moment and possible in the future.
And if you're to jam the pot for positive value, which would absolutely be okay here, then you must be sure to release this hands in the right spot- including this river! How's calling a bet when you know you're losing? Infinitly negative value, think about that.
[edited: there was something wrong here]
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| Posted by: Homer at February 10, 2005, 7:57 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | | FeelingLucky wrote: zm_dawg wrote: dealt to zm_dawg [Qd Kd] ----- FLOP ----- [Ac Jd 6d] phily99: checks zm_dawg: checks amyann111: bets $1 Petro686: raises $2 phily99: folds zm_dawg: raises $3 amyann111: raises $3 Petro686: calls $2 zm_dawg: calls $1 Sorry to sorta hijack this thread, but I noticed you make a play in here that I see being done quite a bit, while I am not doing it myself... After the flop you had a sweet drawing hand with plenty of nice outs, though you currently had nothing. Personally, I wouldn't push the pot up with "just" a draw, no matter how good - BUT, I notice that a lot of people not only bet, but raise, reraise and cap with hands exactly like yours in similar situations. (I would be extra hesitant to raise in this situation because I would figgure that several people have me beat at this point, for sure. I would probably end up calling down whatever bets are made on the flop...) It gives me the feeling I am missing out on some valuable tricks. Would gladly hear som... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: jek187 at February 10, 2005, 7:54 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | Some brief thought on the OP's flop play:
He is pumping the hell out of this draw, and he's correct to do so. Here's why:
He has a 12 outter, which makes him 1.22-1 to hit (or 45% of the time for those who like percentages.) For the sake of this example, we'll pretend he always wins when he hits. We'll also pretend we're no longer playing poker.
You have some sort of gambling game with two possible outcomes. We'll call it Green and Yellow. You know that Yellow hits 45% of the time. If you get someone to bet $1 on Green, while you put up $1 on yellow, is that a good bet? Obviously not, you're getting 1-1 on a 1.22-1 shot.
But what if you get two people to each match your $1. Now is it a good bet? Absolutely! You're getting 2-1 on a 1.22-1 shot.
As we all know, getting 2-1 on a 1.22-1 shot doesn't happen very often. When it does, you want to max out the amount of money you have riding on that 1.22-1 shot while getting 2-1, thus, you jam the hand.
... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Cha Ngo at February 10, 2005, 7:22 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | SmackMBUp wrote: Petro could've had the Ad probably along with a K, judging from his flop play.
OK. I'll buy that.
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| Posted by: SmackMBUp at February 10, 2005, 7:07 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | Petro could've had the Ad probably along with a K, judging from his flop play.
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| Posted by: Cha Ngo at February 10, 2005, 7:02 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | What the Hell did Petro have you figure?
I probably lead the flop but the check-raise is nice. I think you are making money on your bets here with about 12 outs (discounting those that pair the board).
Turn is good, you are ahead here so Petro doesn't have Axd.
Crying call on the river of course.
Shit, sometimes you just gotta lose.
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| Posted by: FeelingLucky at February 10, 2005, 5:59 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | | Right SmackMBUp, that sounds exactly like what I'd be thinking in a hand like this... If I was the one doing the initial preflop raising and get the exact same flop, I'd probably bet away after the flop to see who tagged along and if I scared anyone off - even if I "only" have the nice straight and flush draw... ...with one or two other ppl being the aggressors in the pot though, I would just take the back seat and call this, to probably raise them when it gets to the turn if I hit my hand. Still - I see this exact play being done over and over (though maybe not in such an extreme pot); usually in hands like this: Say I am playing KQo, flop comes K82, two of them suited. I bet with top pair and nice kicker, and yet I get raised (and sometimes more) by people with whatever two suited cards that yield a flush draw. So I am still curious about this, if it is just intended as a means of stealing the pot right then and there (even if you wouldn't hit your draw in the end); or if they are doing it for value somehow... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: SmackMBUp at February 10, 2005, 5:37 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | In this hand you're basically aiming for the flush draw, no question about it. And re-raising this hand in a multi- way pot is usually not the right play unless done for free cards. You want as many as possible in this hand when you hit and invest as little as possible while you have nothing but the draw.
Sklansky says you raise with 2nd best hands (which you obviously have in this case with an ace on the flop and this much action) to drive out opponents and get heads up with someone ideally. This shouldn't be true for non- nut flush draws in multi- way pots and noone folded here either! Bad times for reraising the flop.
Turn action etc. isn't in question here, no-brainer plays actually (except for a possible A high flush... with this much action I'd be careful about it, too). I wouldn't be able to fold that river either and definitely a call is correct!
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| Posted by: FeelingLucky at February 10, 2005, 5:07 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | zm_dawg wrote:
dealt to zm_dawg [Qd Kd]
----- FLOP ----- [Ac Jd 6d]
phily99: checks
zm_dawg: checks
amyann111: bets $1
Petro686: raises $2
phily99: folds
zm_dawg: raises $3
amyann111: raises $3
Petro686: calls $2
zm_dawg: calls $1
Sorry to sorta hijack this thread, but I noticed you make a play in here that I see being done quite a bit, while I am not doing it myself...
After the flop you had a sweet drawing hand with plenty of nice outs, though you currently had nothing. Personally, I wouldn't push the pot up with "just" a draw, no matter how good - BUT, I notice that a lot of people not only bet, but raise, reraise and cap with hands exactly like yours in similar situations. (I would be extra hesitant to raise in this situation because I would figgure that several people have me beat at this point, for sure. I would probably end up calling down whatever bets are made on the flop...)
It gives me the feeling I am... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: zm_dawg at February 10, 2005, 3:08 pm | | Topic: can't let it go Forum: Bonus Whores | I thought about this hand all day at work.......besides getting caught up in it PF which I usually never would have but I was running good and +$130 for the session......i just had a feeling....
Game #332597114: Texas Hold'em Limit ($1/$2) - 2005/02/09 - 09:14:59 (EST)
Table "Modesto" Seat 5 is the button.
Seat 1: clutchman ($38 in chips)
Seat 2: Ricks ($22.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Gold229 ($51.25 in chips)
Seat 4: Petro686 ($20 in chips)
Seat 5: Staale ($32 in chips)
Seat 6: phily99 ($25.47 in chips)
Seat 7: zm_dawg ($18.50 in chips)
Seat 8: GrannyWin ($105.33 in chips)
Seat 9: amyann111 ($31.75 in chips)
Seat 10: Carol33 ($20.75 in chips)
Carol33 leaves the table
phily99: posts small blind $0.50
zm_dawg: posts big blind $1
Petro686: posts big blind $1
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to zm_dawg [Qd Kd]
GrannyWin: folds
Rich08041 joins the table at seat #10
amyann111: raises $2
clutchman: folds
R... | | Read Entire Entry |
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