| Posted by: thefish8 at July 22, 2005, 9:12 am | | Topic: How to calculate your odds of hitting cards Forum: Bonus Whores | I never really had a chance to reply to this topic, sorry for revisiting it so late.
Charts are great, I agree, and I have used that calculator on card player. This doesn't help if you switch to another game though. I was looking more for a generic formula like (number of outs / cards left ) * ... etc.
I think when you do the actual calculation you learn to play more solid. Memorizing a chart does not necessarily make you a good all around player. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: FeelingLucky at July 16, 2005, 3:25 am | | Topic: How to calculate your odds of hitting cards Forum: Bonus Whores | I read about this outs * cards-to-come * 2 estimate in a book (though it was worded differently); and if I remember correctly he said it got less and less accurate the more outs you had... still - as already stated it does a good job of estimating most situations, and when you have 12+ outs a few percent off won't make much of a difference to your decision. I use it sometimes.
The same book also suggested the estimate of outs * 2 + 2 to find out your rough percentage chance of making your hand on the next card, which slightly conflicts with the previous rule (or rather expands it with the +2). I guess this method is meant to give a little more accurate numbers for pot odds decisions, where you have to figure out if it is worth calling this particular bet to see another card (rather than "will I make my hand by the river").
But for pot odds for a single call I usually just stick to deciding my number of outs, figuring how big a portion those outs are of the remaining deck, and comparing... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: steve_bev at July 15, 2005, 11:50 pm | | Topic: How to calculate your odds of hitting cards Forum: Bonus Whores | Works for everything. It's just the same simple math, but rounded off instead of precise. the "x2" at the end is just based on 50 unknown cards... deck of 52 - the 2 in your hand, x2=100 which is the basis for percentages. The reason the decimal places get so screwy is in reality there are 47-43 unknown cards so dividing by those odd numbers gets things off a bit, but rounding to 50 works fine.
Try it whenever you need to know outs. To give an example from a game of mine yesterday, I held Ah Kh, and the board was:
Jh 9h 4c 10s
My opponent had checkraised the flop after checking from the big blind, then bet out on the turn. He bet 20 into a pot that already had 80 in it. I put him on two pair like J9, or possibly trips with 44, meaning I'd have to pick up the nuts to win. So, I counted outs. 9 hearts, minus the 4h and 10h (which could possibly give him a boat or quads) = 7 flush outs, plus the other 3 queens for a straight = 10 outs. Times 1 times 2 was 20%. Higher ma... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: sjguppy at July 15, 2005, 8:47 pm | | Topic: How to calculate your odds of hitting cards Forum: Bonus Whores | Bev,
that is too easy. Where did you figure this out. Does it work the same for all out calculations.
This would help a lot. I know my percentages but have a tendency to forget them right when I am in the middle of a hand and have to think quick. This is an easy way to figure them out with very little effort. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: steve_bev at July 15, 2005, 7:46 pm | | Topic: How to calculate your odds of hitting cards Forum: Bonus Whores | Or, you can just do outs x cards to come x 2 for a percentage estimate. For example if you need to catch a flush on the river, you figure:
9 outs x 1 card to come x 2 = 18%, which is close enough.
Making it on the turn OR river? 9 x 2 cards to come x 2 = 36%
To catch an inside straight? 4 outs x 1 card x 2 = 8%.
Making trips from a pocket pair on the flop?
2 outs x 3 cards to come x 2 = 12%. (7:1 is 12.5%, pretty close)
Usually it'll get you close enough to the ballpark. Rarely will you find that you need to get a precise calculation. Practice while you watch poker on a TV show that shows odds, and it'll become second nature.
_________________
Life is what happens while your cashouts are pending. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Jay at July 15, 2005, 1:16 pm | | Topic: How to calculate your odds of hitting cards Forum: Bonus Whores | You don't need to do exact calculations at the table, but personally I think that everyone (who isn't at my table) should know HOW to do it.
Flush with two cards to come:
9/47 that you hit it on the turn
(38/47 * 9/46) that you miss it on the turn and then hit on the river.
Add 'em up to get:
19.15% + 15.82% = 34.97% to get exactly one card of the two in your suit.
It's also 9/47 * 8/46 that you get both, which is 3.33% of the time, for a total of 38.3%... which is fine if you have the Ace | | Static Link |
| Posted by: sjguppy at July 15, 2005, 1:02 pm | | Topic: How to calculate your odds of hitting cards Forum: Bonus Whores | macman wrote: If you're going to be a winning player, I personally don't think being able to calculate odds to 2 decimel places is going to be the skill that gets you there. You need to just know basic odds of various starting hands and then remember the table below "approximately".
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OUTS TURN RIVER TURN + RIVER
1 2.13% 2.17% 4.26%
2 4.26% 4.35% 8.42%
3 6.38% 6.52% 12.49%
4 8.51% 8.70% 16.47%
5 10.64% 10.87% 20.35%
6 12.77% 13.04% 24.14%
7 14.89% 15.22% 27.84%
8 17.02% 17.39% 31.45%
9 19.15% 19.57% 34.97%
10 21.23% 21.47% 38.39%
11 23.40% 23.91% 41.72%
12 25.53% 26.09% 44.96%
13 27.66% 28.26% 48.10%
14 29.79% 30.43% 51.16%
... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: macman at July 15, 2005, 7:54 am | | Topic: How to calculate your odds of hitting cards Forum: Bonus Whores | If you're going to be a winning player, I personally don't think being able to calculate odds to 2 decimel places is going to be the skill that gets you there. You need to just know basic odds of various starting hands and then remember the table below "approximately".
--------------------------------------------
OUTS TURN RIVER TURN + RIVER
1 2.13% 2.17% 4.26%
2 4.26% 4.35% 8.42%
3 6.38% 6.52% 12.49%
4 8.51% 8.70% 16.47%
5 10.64% 10.87% 20.35%
6 12.77% 13.04% 24.14%
7 14.89% 15.22% 27.84%
8 17.02% 17.39% 31.45%
9 19.15% 19.57% 34.97%
10 21.23% 21.47% 38.39%
11 23.40% 23.91% 41.72%
12 25.53% 26.09% 44.96%
13 27.66% 28.26% 48.10%
14 29.79% 30.43% 51.16%
15 31.91% 32.... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: elf23 at July 14, 2005, 9:36 am | | Topic: How to calculate your odds of hitting cards Forum: Bonus Whores | in general, prob = number of desired outcomes/number of possible outcomes
so for flopping a 4flush draw or a flush it would be
first 2 cards suited and last card unsuited:
(11/50)*(10/49)*(39/4 = .03648
For flopping suited, unsuited, suited:
(11/50)*(39/49)*(10/4 = .03648
unsuited followed by 2 suited cards:
(39/50)*(11/49)*10/4 = .03648
For suited, suited, suited
(11/50)*(10/49)*(9/4 = .00841
prob = .11785
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I think its easier to just memorize odds/outs conversions, because Ican tweak outs based on the possibility of making my hand and it still not being a winner, etc a lot easier than I could set-up a complex math problem in my head (I have a 40% chance of making this hand, which has a 20% chance of being a winner, I have a 5% chance of making this hand which has a 100% chance of being a winner, etc....)
_________________
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Lisa: Poor predictable Bart...always chooses Rock
Bar... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Jay at July 14, 2005, 9:01 am | | Topic: How to calculate your odds of hitting cards Forum: Bonus Whores | thefish8 wrote: I have been reading about hypergeometric distobution and such, but I want to know exactly how to calculate the odds of getting your card with x number of cards left to come. For example, I know that if you have a pocket pair, you have a 7.5:1 chance of hitting trips on the flop, but what is the exact calculation. Any resouces or formulas would be helpful, thanks in advance.
Hypergeometric distribution? It's just addition and multiplication and division.
The simplest thing is to find a big table online that someone already computed... I remember finding many back when I started playing..
The basic calculation would look like this:
There are 50 unknown cards, of which you need one of two for trips.
The first flop card has a 2/50 chance of being one you need.
If not (24/25 of the time); the second one has a 2/49 chance.
If not (24/25 * 47/49 of the time); the third one has a 2/48 chance.
So you have... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: thefish8 at July 14, 2005, 8:01 am | | Topic: How to calculate your odds of hitting cards Forum: Bonus Whores | | I have been reading about hypergeometric distobution and such, but I want to know exactly how to calculate the odds of getting your card with x number of cards left to come. For example, I know that if you have a pocket pair, you have a 7.5:1 chance of hitting trips on the flop, but what is the exact calculation. Any resouces or formulas would be helpful, thanks in advance. | | Static Link |
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