| Posted by: topdawg2003 at September 29, 2005, 11:08 am | | Topic: Interesting NL hand, Game Theory analysis... Forum: Bonus Whores | FeelingLucky wrote: I know you are just asking about the turn here, but personally I wonder why you bet that flop. To me, that pushes him to make a significantly bigger raise/bet than he would have otherwise made. On a rainbow ragged flop with only one high card, if he hit any of the hands you suspected him of (AQ or even QQ); or if he has KK or AA, he is probably more interested in getting payed off by a weaker queen or middle pocket pair than he is to win the smallish pot with a monster.
I don't think he'd have shoved $50 if you had both checked to him, and he had a hand. This is a perfect non-threatening flop that hit you pretty nicely - but you don't have anything yet. Sure - by betting like you did, you could have picked up a small pot if he was weak-tight and folded. That would be a nice little result for 64s vs a raise... but if you plan on calling raises with hands like that (imho); you are going for big pots, or preferably their stack.
So by checking the flop, you ar... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: FeelingLucky at September 28, 2005, 12:04 pm | | Topic: Interesting NL hand, Game Theory analysis... Forum: Bonus Whores | I know you are just asking about the turn here, but personally I wonder why you bet that flop. To me, that pushes him to make a significantly bigger raise/bet than he would have otherwise made. On a rainbow ragged flop with only one high card, if he hit any of the hands you suspected him of (AQ or even QQ); or if he has KK or AA, he is probably more interested in getting payed off by a weaker queen or middle pocket pair than he is to win the smallish pot with a monster.
I don't think he'd have shoved $50 if you had both checked to him, and he had a hand. This is a perfect non-threatening flop that hit you pretty nicely - but you don't have anything yet. Sure - by betting like you did, you could have picked up a small pot if he was weak-tight and folded. That would be a nice little result for 64s vs a raise... but if you plan on calling raises with hands like that (imho); you are going for big pots, or preferably their stack.
So by checking the flop, you are giving yourself a much bet... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: AceM at September 28, 2005, 2:10 am | | Topic: Interesting NL hand, Game Theory analysis... Forum: Bonus Whores | Part of the reason to call with small cards like that (out of position) is getting folding equity when you KNOW a guy will fold just an overpair or tptk... if you KNEW he wouldn't fold then you're done with them on the flop unless you hit, however if you KNOW he'll fold then you put him all in right there and be sure he won't call unless he has QQ. Obviously if, like you said, he won't fold it, you made the right play by folding. Play the player.
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| Posted by: topdawg2003 at September 27, 2005, 9:05 pm | | Topic: Interesting NL hand, Game Theory analysis... Forum: Bonus Whores | macman wrote: I am wondering first, how do you justify calling the raise with 64sp?
Good question... one word, tilt... three hands earlier i lost a FH to quads
macman wrote:
Second, how do you figure it is a +EV? You have to figure you had 8 outs essentially. Of course, you could have hit runner runner two pair, trips or flush, but the odds are obviously low
here's my justification.... odds are he's on AQ, KK or AA, i'm approximately 37% to win... even if he's on QQ, i'm still 27% or so to win... all this is assuming win at showdown (so 8 outs of 45 cards in the deck (i'm further assuming he's not nolding a 2 or 7) to make my straight on the turn, so, 17.8% is my chance to hit on the turn)
i have 8 outs, none of which would throw up any red flags in my opponents mind... so, if i have $240 to start the hand, by the end, i'd have $490 assuming i hit on the turn (17.8% of the time); the other 82.2%, i'd have $182.... for an expected... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: topdawg2003 at September 27, 2005, 8:33 pm | | Topic: Interesting NL hand, Game Theory analysis... Forum: Bonus Whores | | well, the game is constructed based on my flop actions... A) calling the bet, B) folding, C) raising... and the potential EVs based on each of these actions... and also based on my expectation that he will continue to hammer regardless of my actions... | | Static Link |
| Posted by: macman at September 27, 2005, 8:33 pm | | Topic: Interesting NL hand, Game Theory analysis... Forum: Bonus Whores | I am wondering first, how do you justify calling the raise with 64sp? Second, how do you figure it is a +EV? You have to figure you had 8 outs essentially. Of course, you could have hit runner runner two pair, trips or flush, but the odds are obviously low.
If you could have played it cheap, not bad playing after the flop. This guy could have also had QQ but AQ is more likely. Since you don't know for sure what he had, determining you had a +EV is a guesstimate at best. Either way, seems like a good fold. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: HeelHo at September 27, 2005, 8:10 pm | | Topic: Interesting NL hand, Game Theory analysis... Forum: Bonus Whores | unless you think he will fold on the turn, you cant construct a "game". It requires him to vary his choices based on your actions, and if he is hammering, he is gonna hammer.
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| Posted by: topdawg2003 at September 27, 2005, 6:23 pm | | Topic: Interesting NL hand, Game Theory analysis... Forum: Bonus Whores | $1 / $2 NL
Well, i have 4 6 spades ($240 in chips) in the cutoff and limp
button ($275 in chips) (tight player) raises - to $8
BB Calls, I call
Flop is Qc 3d 5s
BB Checks
I Bet $10 (hoping to take a cheap card or gage if he's on AK or something to that effect)
Button Raises to $50 ($85 in the pot, $40 for me to call the raise)
BB Folds
At this point, I know he's on a big pair or AQ (at the very least) and i don't think he's capable of making a laydown of that sort if i move all in here (the calculations i made later show that all in is an awful play)
So basically, i'm left with 2 options, call and see the turn and hope i hit, or lay it down on the flop (if i hit, i'm about 95% confident i get paid off)
Now, I obviously folded... but when i went back and made some calculations for the hand, my EV was highest calling the flop raise and folding if i missed on the turn (unless the turn was a spade, in which case... | | Read Entire Entry |
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