| Posted by: vinmanecw at January 15, 2006, 4:58 am | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | Grinder wrote: I can understand where he is coming from when playing NLl and it's the reason I don't LIKE NL. Perhaps it is also why I hate NL.
AA against 9 players that are ALL-in is a poor investment in my book. You lose perhaps your entire stack more often then not, but when you win you win huge.
In NL you pretty much know from your 1st two cards how the hand will go.
Limit every card is a new hand and is way more exciting.
My thinking (and I'm probebly wrong) is that Pot odds and implied odds are easier to figure in Limit and NL.
Perhaps Implied odds are more important then pot odds????
Thanks for making my day. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: sillypuppy at January 14, 2006, 9:17 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | Osric wrote: It is comments like this that make it seem like you have absolutely no clue as to what pot odds are. You keep using completely irrelivent examples.
that's why I've stated several times that the concept is about calling when you know you're beat, pot odds or no pot odds.
Osric wrote: Now...in this circumstance, you have INCREDIBLE pot odds. you have a 50-50 chance of winning and no matter what you bet you will get paid 500x that bet if you win. This good, and if you aren't emptying out your wallet to put every dime you have on you down on the table that second, you are a fool.
Of course that makes sense, but if you're going to throw everything you have on a 50-50 shot at winning, I think that's a poor choice, regardless of the payoff. I think skilled players win by correct decisions and skill over a long period of time, not oen big pot on a 50-50 shot.
Sure if you're faced with this decision enough times, then the appropriate action ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Osric at January 14, 2006, 7:36 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote:
I've heard all kinds of numbers for aces to win in this situation, but let's consider the highest (31%). You're putting your whole stack on a 31% chance to win, and demanding that others suck out on you. If this is how you play, then you should be going all in with a flush draw on the flop, everytime. Casino war gives you a coin toss every hand, and much better chance at winning.
It is comments like this that make it seem like you have absolutely no clue as to what pot odds are. You keep using completely irrelivent examples.
Casino war will pay you whatever you bet. You have roughly a 50-50 shot of winning (actually slightly less). There is no chance of trebling, quadrupaling, or whatever the heck 9x your bet.
Lets see if I can explain it a little to you using your absurd examples. You are playing casino war and some rich guy comes up behind you and says, "no matter what you bet on this next hand, I will pay you 500x your bet ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: sillypuppy at January 14, 2006, 6:42 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | I understand that perspective, but saying "always" and "never" is just too simple of an outlook and that's why I don't take those positions.
As mentioned before you are a favorite to win the hand singularly, but you are not a favorite when you consider going against the entire table, which is what you'll have to do, beat 9 players all at once to win.
I've heard all kinds of numbers for aces to win in this situation, but let's consider the highest (31%). You're putting your whole stack on a 31% chance to win, and demanding that others suck out on you. If this is how you play, then you should be going all in with a flush draw on the flop, everytime. Casino war gives you a coin toss every hand, and much better chance at winning.
Perhaps the pot odds are great, but in this situation they'll never beat a 95% chance at a paying position. I can just fold and take second place AT LEAST 95% of the time. This is a win-win situation for folding. Where else are y... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: WhooFleuryScores at January 14, 2006, 1:36 am | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | For the record this is my take:
In a tourney I will go all in easily with AA/KK anytime bigstakced or not regardless of callers preflop.If some moron has to suck out on me then damnit he better do it after we're both all in.I win-I pretty much can make the money.I lose-I get the rest of the day/night to myself and can do other things.
Limit game-well that's slightly different.But if I am bonus chasing with rakeback and have enough odds everytime hell yeah more power to them if they want to gamble and try to outplay me.I will push all day and all night with an OESFD/OESD/FD/Top Set ANY DAY ESPECIALLY if people are all in before me AND I have them covered OR not.
As Mike Sexton would say "You're going to see some fireworks now ladies and gentlemen!" | | Static Link |
| Posted by: sillypuppy at January 13, 2006, 10:33 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | Jay wrote: Why the hell are people still bothering to post in this thread? I didn't even read anything after the first page and a half.
I think you just answered your own question. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: 2muchMONEY at January 13, 2006, 9:55 am | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | coloradoholdem wrote: AJ wrote: I figure there's one of 3 things going on:
1) The OP is focusing on SNGs, in which case, yes, pot odds are not everything (though still important)
2) The OP is the dumbest person I've ever known
3) The OP is joking
If one of those is true, there's no point in arguing any more.
I'm leaning 3)...cause you'd have to be really really dumb to say that just because you lost 4/5ths of the time doesn't mean you win (or tie) the other 1/5th. I mean, what else is there?!?!?
#2
everything is said
CLOSE THIS THREAD
_________________
cya | | Static Link |
| Posted by: DrStrange at January 13, 2006, 8:54 am | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | It seems to me that the issue is tactics vs strategy. There are going to be times when the strategy for the event make it best to fold even the best of hands. Pot odds and expected value are not the only considerations in MTT or SnG's. Howerver, these types situations are almost unique to tournament play. Absent compelling strategic issues, playing pocket aces is EV+.
As a side bar note - - Pocket aces will win a ten-handed game 31% of the time when all ten players go to showdown. See http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Value.htm for more information.
In the case that Osric described above <assuming the pot will be won by exactly one person>: If we play our aces in a ten way pot, we win first 31% of the time and split the pool for second and third 69%. Assuming a 50/30/20 split, we win 31% X 50% + 69% X (30% + 20%)/9 or 19.3% of the prize pool. If we fold the aces we win the 2nd place prize unless we can overcome a 9-1 chip leader. Worse case is we always come in second, giving ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Osric at January 13, 2006, 8:41 am | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | I've stayed out of this largely because I really couldn't believe how dumb the original question was posed. I now realize that the original poster is laying out a specific scenario, but did not take the time to explain. So I'm trying to wrap my mind around his proposal. Here is my list of assumptions:
A. Player is in a 10 man SNG that pays top 3 places.
B. SNG has a pay structure of 50/30/20
C. Said hand occurs on the first hand of the tournament.
D. Player is on the button, and every player moves all in before him.
E. Player has AA. Poster says it would be stupid to call because even if pot odds are "good", he will lose most of the time.
F. Poker is a long term game. No good player will put strategy into play without considering it's long term effects.
So first...is all of the above true? If not, please correct.
Assuming above is true, and assuming buyin to tournament is $10, so $100 in prize pool (I like working with small numbe... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: AJ at January 13, 2006, 8:25 am | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | I would probably lay down AA if it was an all-in fest on the first hand of an SNG.
Why didn't you just say you were talking about SNGs?!?!
On the flip side, if you played enough SNGs, and you encountered that situation enough, it would make sense to push. You would lose most of the time, but the wins would compensate...but yeah, you're not realistically going to run into that enough...unless Kill Phil really catches on | | Static Link |
| Posted by: TheJourneyman at January 13, 2006, 1:02 am | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote: alpha is right, I'm an sng player and it is my fault I didn't specify sng situation. That is my mistake.
colorado: you are arguing that tony's is greatness? what about new year's resolution? Tony's is horrible, you'll have a stroke ingesting the salt before you can even taste the Tony's. Stop man before you die!
i am not arguing - just saying i think tony's is greatness. if you don't like it don't use it. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: sillypuppy at January 13, 2006, 12:50 am | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | alpha is right, I'm an sng player and it is my fault I didn't specify sng situation. That is my mistake.
colorado: you are arguing that tony's is greatness? what about new year's resolution? Tony's is horrible, you'll have a stroke ingesting the salt before you can even taste the Tony's. Stop man before you die! | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Alphaunit1 at January 13, 2006, 12:00 am | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | | Meh. This thread has really gotten insanely nasty. OP is an SNG player - nearly every post I've read in the past from him has indicated that in the past, but he did make a mistake by not making that clear in the initial post here. It took me a bit to straighten it out (I don't remember every poster off the bat), but can we all work off that assumption from here on out? | | Static Link |
| Posted by: TheJourneyman at January 12, 2006, 11:41 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote: coloradoholdem wrote: AJ wrote: I figure there's one of 3 things going on:
1) The OP is focusing on SNGs, in which case, yes, pot odds are not everything (though still important)
2) The OP is the dumbest person I've ever known
3) The OP is joking
If one of those is true, there's no point in arguing any more.
I'm leaning 3)...cause you'd have to be really really dumb to say that just because you lost 4/5ths of the time doesn't mean you win (or tie) the other 1/5th. I mean, what else is there?!?!?
#2
Ni
AceM wrote: Yes, you are wrong unless your situation is in 1 of about 4 instances that are possible.
1. you are in a satellite and have enough chips to fold every hand to make a win.
2. You are in 1 table SNG and they all got all in and 2nd pays money, I can fold here knowing I will get 2nd place 95% time at least.
3. You are at final table of mtt and y... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: TheJourneyman at January 12, 2006, 11:31 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote:
Colorado: more than 1,000 posts and you still smell like fish.
well my apt does smell like catfish - bud damn that was some good eats - add in a little tony's and damn its good shit
anyway - i quit reading this after page 1 i think - all i know is you don't lay down a hand getting 9-1 odds if you will win 1 in 5. call me an idiot i don't care i'll take those odds all day long. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: sillypuppy at January 12, 2006, 11:31 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | coloradoholdem wrote: AJ wrote: I figure there's one of 3 things going on:
1) The OP is focusing on SNGs, in which case, yes, pot odds are not everything (though still important)
2) The OP is the dumbest person I've ever known
3) The OP is joking
If one of those is true, there's no point in arguing any more.
I'm leaning 3)...cause you'd have to be really really dumb to say that just because you lost 4/5ths of the time doesn't mean you win (or tie) the other 1/5th. I mean, what else is there?!?!?
#2
Ni
AceM wrote: Yes, you are wrong unless your situation is in 1 of about 4 instances that are possible.
1. you are in a satellite and have enough chips to fold every hand to make a win.
2. You are in 1 table SNG and they all got all in and 2nd pays money, I can fold here knowing I will get 2nd place 95% time at least.
3. You are at final table of mtt and you are short stack and eve... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: TheJourneyman at January 12, 2006, 11:28 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote: I meant respectable as in your opinion on this site is held in high regards, it doesn't mean I agree with every single thing you say or do.
AJ, colorado, and some others are basically calling you an idiot, yet the person that you agree with is the one that you flame... that's what doesn't add up to me.
I regularly play $100 SNG but who cares who earns more per hour? I just want to get better all of the time, I strive for it. The moment I figure I know it all is the moment I'm dead meat.
and by the way I know a lot of 10+1 tourney guys that are repsectable players. It's just the way you make it sound like you're some high roller. First you tell me you charge 100 bucks an hour for coaching, then you say you make 7 an hour at poker.
Sorry that just doesn't add up.
who am I calling an idiot? | | Static Link |
| Posted by: sillypuppy at January 12, 2006, 11:19 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | I meant respectable as in your opinion on this site is held in high regards, it doesn't mean I agree with every single thing you say or do.
AJ, colorado, and some others are basically calling you an idiot, yet the person that you agree with is the one that you flame... that's what doesn't add up to me.
I regularly play $100 SNG but who cares who earns more per hour? I just want to get better all of the time, I strive for it. The moment I figure I know it all is the moment I'm dead meat.
and by the way I know a lot of 10+1 tourney guys that are repsectable players. It's just the way you make it sound like you're some high roller. First you tell me you charge 100 bucks an hour for coaching, then you say you make 7 an hour at poker.
Sorry that just doesn't add up. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: AceM at January 12, 2006, 11:18 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote: Why don't either of you address the arguments I bring forth, instead you flame flame, stupid this stupid that, yet AceM and alpha, 2 respectable players are agreeing with me here. Are you guys trolls or something?
First you talk shit to me saying I'm a 10+1 tourney guy now you call me a respectable player. Which is it? Since we've never played how do you know? Honestly, I make my living at the 20+2 sng level so I know what's going on in this game... my hourly rate at poker is at least 7 bucks an hour. Beat that.
_________________
I'm a 8====D | | Static Link |
| Posted by: AceM at January 12, 2006, 11:11 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote: I don't think anyone advocated folding it in a cash game. Perhaps if you tried to understand something that you don't, you could do better than just assuming that an idea presented that is unknown to you is by default, wrong simply because you never heard of it.
AceM; yeah sure man, you're so rich and successful yet you invite me to a $10+1 sng. Laff...
Of course I notice you only posted that AFTER I told you I was already at pokerstars. This is bonuswhores.com...
BTW if you judge your game by the same standards that you judge women, I can tell both of them are rather marginal.
Here comes the BLAH BLAH "take you at any limit any table crap". Save it, you challenged me to a $10 tourney, I don't even get out of bed for $10, but yeah you're the pro with mahogany that has an apartment (not a house). lalala...
This is funny, the game we played in was strictly for fun, but I mean I whatever I don't have to prove anything to... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: sillypuppy at January 12, 2006, 10:47 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | the majority of people participating on the thread are agreeing with me AJ and colorado.
Why don't either of you address the arguments I bring forth, instead you flame flame, stupid this stupid that, yet AceM and alpha, 2 respectable players are agreeing with me here. Are you guys trolls or something?
Alpha: you're right I think. In the OP I hadn't specified stt tourney or cash (or mtt for that matter) so that's my fault and I take the blame. I appreciate you sorting that out.
AJ: I'm definitely not joking. If you're going to lay down a 95% chance at a paying position for a 20% chance to earn a pot, YOU'VE got to be the dumbest person I've ever known. As mentioned before in the posts that you didn't read, yes you are 1 to 5 for 9 to 1, but you are not faced with THIS situation enough to make that work.
AJ wrote: I'm leaning 3)...cause you'd have to be really really dumb to say that just because you lost 4/5ths of the time doesn't mean you win (or tie)... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: TheJourneyman at January 12, 2006, 10:32 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | AJ wrote: I figure there's one of 3 things going on:
1) The OP is focusing on SNGs, in which case, yes, pot odds are not everything (though still important)
2) The OP is the dumbest person I've ever known
3) The OP is joking
If one of those is true, there's no point in arguing any more.
I'm leaning 3)...cause you'd have to be really really dumb to say that just because you lost 4/5ths of the time doesn't mean you win (or tie) the other 1/5th. I mean, what else is there?!?!?
#2
Ni | | Static Link |
| Posted by: AJ at January 12, 2006, 10:30 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | I figure there's one of 3 things going on:
1) The OP is focusing on SNGs, in which case, yes, pot odds are not everything (though still important)
2) The OP is the dumbest person I've ever known
3) The OP is joking
If one of those is true, there's no point in arguing any more.
I'm leaning 3)...cause you'd have to be really really dumb to say that just because you lost 4/5ths of the time doesn't mean you win (or tie) the other 1/5th. I mean, what else is there?!?!? | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Alphaunit1 at January 12, 2006, 10:16 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote: Yes, I should quit playing poker because I don't put all of my chips in against 9 people for a 20% chance at a draw... as stated by a previous poster, I don't like to blunder my wins. I would venture to say however, that there is a good chance that one person will win, and you'll be in a paying position without having to take a risk. I would be willing to bet that your chances of getting paid at least, are better than winning with the AA. Nobody thought of that. I don't know about anyone else, but I love it when people are committing their entire stacks and battling it out against each other so that one can win and I get a potential payoff for being out of the bubble.
I think the VAST majority of the confusion in this thread is predicated on the fact that most people believed (still believe?) that you were discussing no limit cash games. Short of some peculiar circumstances such as having a too large portion of your bankroll on the table without wanting to risk it (... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Mikke_ at January 12, 2006, 9:11 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | Just got back from the ER.
Massive number of BW dudes there with head injuries!
Blood all over the brick walls...
_________________
Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: sillypuppy at January 12, 2006, 9:07 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | understood JPM, as a matter of fact, AceM agrees with me. Hell he even provided 3 more scenarios for when folding AA preflop should be done, something I hadn't even considered.
It was not my intention to debate or force anything on anyone, just explain why I would make a decision like this in this situation. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: JPMcMoney at January 12, 2006, 9:01 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy, I wouldnt advise playing Ace HU at any level. He is pretty much one of the top players here, if not THE top player. I understand the confusion was over tourney vs. cash game, but honestly, whatever advice he gives you, if you want to improve your game, I would take it and say thank you and move on. Debating his knowledge of poker is a losing battle for you and, to be honest, for any of us to debate each others is just silly. I would only fold in your example late in a tourney with a big prize for just making it to a certain number. That's it. NO OTHER TIME. Just my 2 cents.
JP
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Gone with the wind. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: 2muchMONEY at January 12, 2006, 8:51 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote: The lottery was not an example or explanation of pot odds, it was the idea that putting up money when you're pretty sure you're beat is stupid.
sillypuppy wrote: After all, the lottery is the best pot odds in the world!
c'mon dude...you should read your own posts...
_________________
cya | | Static Link |
| Posted by: sillypuppy at January 12, 2006, 8:49 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | It was wrong because you read into it what you wanted.
The lottery was not an example or explanation of pot odds, it was the idea that putting up money when you're pretty sure you're beat is stupid. I'm sure you know this, but I don't expect you to admit it.
Yes, give up a 95% chance at a paying position so that you can have a 5 to 1 chance at a paying position. Your choice I guess.
I edited to add to posts rather than having numerous posts in a row. Had I done otherwise you'd call me a troll. I don't care what you think anyway. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: 2muchMONEY at January 12, 2006, 8:44 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote: I perfectly understand pot odds, and debating me is rather old being that the majority of the people who started out bashing my scenario ended up agreeing with me. Read the thread.
anyway, your original statement was just wrong. all other posts from you has been edited so who knows what you wrote...actually i don't even care. telling that you'd have GREAT pot odds in lottery speaks for itself
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cya | | Static Link |
| Posted by: sillypuppy at January 12, 2006, 8:36 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | I perfectly understand pot odds, and debating me is rather old being that the majority of the people who started out bashing my scenario ended up agreeing with me. Read the thread.
The idea was that knowing that you're probably beat but calling anyway because you have great pot odds is retarded. It comes down to questioning why someone would call a defeated hand in hopes that some miracle will happen and they'll get lucky, then get a big payoff. Keep reraising me with your 22 or A9o, I love it. Read the thread. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: 2muchMONEY at January 12, 2006, 8:34 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote: Pot odds seem funny, and I guess I don't understand the people that advocate them based solely on odds. After all, the lottery is the best pot odds in the world! 1 dollar for a chance to win millions. Hell I should sell my house, car, everything I own and go all in. I'll probably still lose, but hey I've got GREAT pot odds! See what I mean? nope. the only thing i can see is that you are obviously not smart enough do understand the concept of pot odds...
eg the chance to hit the jackpot in the uk national lottery is 1 in 13,983,816
you don't have great pot odds you have poor pot odds.
EV = Potsize x Chance of winning – betsize
so lottery is defintely -EV
Again, where do you play?
_________________
cya | | Static Link |
| Posted by: sillypuppy at January 12, 2006, 8:22 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | I don't think anyone advocated folding it in a cash game. Perhaps if you tried to understand something that you don't, you could do better than just assuming that an idea presented that is unknown to you is by default, wrong simply because you never heard of it.
AceM; yeah sure man, you're so rich and successful yet you invite me to a $10+1 sng. Laff...
Of course I notice you only posted that AFTER I told you I was already at pokerstars. This is bonuswhores.com...
BTW if you judge your game by the same standards that you judge women, I can tell both of them are rather marginal.
Here comes the BLAH BLAH "take you at any limit any table crap". Save it, you challenged me to a $10 tourney, I don't even get out of bed for $10, but yeah you're the pro with mahogany that has an apartment (not a house). lalala... | | Static Link |
| Posted by: AceM at January 12, 2006, 6:15 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | sillypuppy wrote: where do you play at, I'm looking for a new site I'll give you referral bonus.
Ummmm right, dude I do this for a living and live in Las Vegas, I think I've hit all those angles a long time ago. Not being mean, just letting you know, I have an apartment decorated of rich mahogany...
_________________
I'm a 8====D | | Static Link |
| Posted by: nafanny29 at January 12, 2006, 6:12 pm | | Topic: pot odds, never agreed with it. Forum: Bonus Whores | I never thought Id see the day when some of us BWs (the EV+ movers) actually argue in favour of FOLDING AA in a cash game. If anyone thinks you should fold AA in a cash game preflop then you should NOT PLAY POKER FULL STOP.
Wait a minute... 65 suited might make a striaght or a flush LOL
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chance favours the prepared mind | | Static Link |
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