| Posted by: luckyfish at March 28, 2006, 9:23 am | | Topic: low percentage of monster hands Forum: Bonus Whores | Do you play only one table? 8k hands in 4 months seems a bit few.
Since you are saying you are at best breaking even at $3/6 i would consider moving down (say to $1/2), but slowly adding more tables to learn multitabling.
If you then can handle at least 4 tables at $1/$2 (if you can handle more even better) you will get much quicker insight if you are beating the game at this level (and of course get a much better hourly winrate /bonus clearance rate).
You can then move up, if your pokertracker stats show a significant winrate at your current level (preferrably over more than 8k hands), you are properly bankrolled for the next level (300 Big Bets Minimum, i like to have at least 500), and feel psychologically ready to lose 100BB+ at your new level in the next downswing. You should also be ready to move down again if you are not doing well at the new level.
Also you might want to play at many different sites, not only at party, so that you always clear some bonus while pl... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: Pokerdogg at March 27, 2006, 9:46 pm | | Topic: low percentage of monster hands Forum: Bonus Whores | Well said Alpha.
Another thing to consider, starting hand is just one small part of the luck equation. You may be getting less number of premium starting hands, but if you are flopping good cards to match your hand, your luck may be very good. Also, if you are getting ok hands, but your opponents keep getting worse hands than you, again, your luck may be good despite the low number of premium starting hands.
You will probably have a much better idea of how well you stack up in the $3/6 game after 30-40k hands. If you are winning at a good rate, then consider moving up. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Alphaunit1 at March 27, 2006, 9:25 pm | | Topic: low percentage of monster hands Forum: Bonus Whores | Two issues with your post. I'll address them one at a time:
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8000 hands is a VERY small statistical sample. Consider the reality that the are 1,326 different combinations of starting cards you can have. Of those:
- 78 can be pocket pairs (13 cards x 6 combinations)
- 312 are suited
- 936 are unsuited non-pairs.
You should get AA (or KK, or QQ, or JJ, etc.) 1 in 212 times (6 out of 1326), on average. So you should have seen each of them ~37-38 times, but for one to be 30 and another to be 50 would be fairly normal. AK (suited or not) about 1 in 82 times (16 out of 1326), so about ~97 times between the two of them.
Again, 8000 hands isn't a lot - I've played 2000 hand stretches where I've gotten AA once, and I've played 500 hand stretches where I got AA 10 times. It happens.
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Moving up in anticipation that you will get more monsters? Egads, this is wrong on so many levels. If I take a fair coin and flip it 10 times a... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: thomashobbes21 at March 27, 2006, 9:08 pm | | Topic: low percentage of monster hands Forum: Bonus Whores | | stay at the 3-6 until u feel you can beat it. What happens when you go to a level and your KK comes against AA and your AA gets cracked by 5-6. Just because your dealt monsters doesn't mean they are going to win. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: wrjahnn at March 27, 2006, 9:02 pm | | Topic: low percentage of monster hands Forum: Bonus Whores | Having just started at hold'em, four months ago, and having played over 8000 hands filed in Poker Tracker, I'm wondering if my stats warrant moving up a level or two in Limit Hold'em.
I'm currently playing on Party at the $3/6 level and have noticed that the number of monster hands (AA, AKs, AKo, KK, QQ, and JJ) are about 20% lower than the other hands. Books that I've read (mainly Sklansky) have led me to believe that the vast majority of any winings will come from monster hands.
I compared the frequency of hands by multiplying pairs by 2, suited hands by 3, and offsuited hands by 1, in order to get a significant comparison. With this calculation I noticed that I was getting about 20% fewer monster hands than other hands.
My question is "Should I move up a level in anticipation that the probability of getting more monsters is in my favor, or is this too risky considering that I'm at best only breaking even at the $3/6 level on Party?
Or i... | | Read Entire Entry |
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