| Posted by: luckyfish at June 21, 2006, 1:58 am | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | DreamerUSA wrote: 88 out of the 100 hands the AA, bare minimum, will win 352bb.1 out of the hundred hands there will be a flop of set over set with the likely conclusion being all the chips in the pot.So thats the AA with 452bb.That leaves the 22 with 11 hands to make up 452bb.So on average the AA would have to lose 42bb when the ducks catch a set to lose money.This assumes alot of course because we dont know the texture of each individual flop but with the situation given, straight math is all we got to work with.
I think you make it a bit too easy for the aces. First there are also some flops with an OESD which might be played profitably with the deuces. Then you will only lose 92BB with set over set because you still have one out.
But the most important is you dont have to play fit or fold with the deuces. Lets say for example you play any flop containing a three exactly like when you hit your set.
Lets say you check the flop and call a pot sized (8.5 BB) bet. Now... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: thunder2048 at June 20, 2006, 7:43 pm | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | | The guy with 22 with be ready to go all in when he has his set and will see an ace on the board as a very good thing because he will be able to get paid by guys with AK, AQ, AJ, AT and guys bluffing thay have AK or AQ, the AA will take all of the other's stack when they both hit they set! and a good player would not lose all his stack on most AA that dosent hit anything. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: DreamerUSA at June 19, 2006, 7:56 pm | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | 88 out of the 100 hands the AA, bare minimum, will win 352bb.1 out of the hundred hands there will be a flop of set over set with the likely conclusion being all the chips in the pot.So thats the AA with 452bb.That leaves the 22 with 11 hands to make up 452bb.So on average the AA would have to lose 42bb when the ducks catch a set to lose money.This assumes alot of course because we dont know the texture of each individual flop but with the situation given, straight math is all we got to work with.
How much the AA loses on the 11 hands depends alot on how the the ducks play the set and what the flop brings on those 11 hands.Some flops make it easy to get away from AA some make it hard.But I dont see a good player losing an avg of 42bb with AA without some raise and reraise action preflop.
An idiot willing to risk their stack post flop on all 11 hands will catch an ace on the turn or river at least once giving them 552bb but losing 1000bb for a net loss of 448bb. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: EZ at June 19, 2006, 4:53 pm | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | this is why i buy in for 35-40bb's....lol. (expecially if 6+ tabling)
in this example (4bb's) you got to like mr 22 if he only plays sets. if AA player is average to slightly above average player he losses his ass over the long haul.
except i'm on not sure what the odds are for set over set?? ed?? | | Static Link |
| Posted by: mike_m235 at June 19, 2006, 3:37 pm | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | The conclusions are what anyone who plays NL100 already knows. AA will rarely win you a stack but will often lose you one. For someone to lose a stack to AA they either have to get beat set over set or be a total donkey. Because that means they got all in with something LESS than AA. And while that happens a lot at NL25, it's a lot less frequent at NL100 and NL200 (Yes, it still happens, just not as often). The guys who go all in on just TPTK get killed off pretty quickly.
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| Posted by: DrStrange at June 19, 2006, 5:50 am | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | Flux, the player with the aces has the button and thus the best possition for the last three rounds of betting. Most people playing the big blind do not consider themselves in better possition than the button. Acting last the first betting round does not make up for acting first the last three betting rounds.
A 4X raise is on the large end of an average raise, based on my observation of on-line games. If you want to consider that the raise was 5X or 6X - fine. I think the same logic applies. We all know the player with aces can win the small and big blinds by pushing 100BB all-in but few of us would play our aces that way. Most folks here are going to make their standard raise with aces on the button. There are some people who would limp with aces or make the minimum raise trying to induce action rather than have the blinds fold out to the standard raise. I think 4x is a reasonable compromise and a fair set of conditions.
Perhaps the conclusions are uncomfortable? -=- DrStrange | | Static Link |
| Posted by: flux at June 19, 2006, 1:05 am | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | whenever you bet 4x BB with AA you are supposed to lose =) hey move all in and let KK/QQ/AK call ..
naa.. to be serious.. I think you are kinda unfair with the "enviroment" .. like 22 has pos.. and AA only bets 4x BB .. thats like saying I have a set but there is flush/straight draw on the board.. and I only check.. will I win?
but doyle once said =) with AA either you win a small pot.. or you loose a big one.. =) | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Mikke_ at June 18, 2006, 6:03 pm | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | mike_m235 wrote: Unless the pocket aces just bet 15 BBs preflop every hand, at which point the AA pretty much could never lose since the 22 couldn't call.
But he bet 4x this time.......
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| Posted by: mike_m235 at June 18, 2006, 5:48 pm | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | Unless the pocket aces just bet 15 BBs preflop every hand, at which point the AA pretty much could never lose since the 22 couldn't call.
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| Posted by: Alphaunit1 at June 18, 2006, 5:15 pm | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | | Interesting. It seems that 22 may actually be in a stronger position here, as they could easily play "fit or fold" on the flop. 1 in 8 times they catch a set, with a reasonably high chance of destacking the player with AA. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Mikke_ at June 18, 2006, 5:00 pm | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | Post-flop 22 puts his money in first when he hits or if he sees an orphan flop and he feels brave. AA has to call or fold, knowing he might be facing trips.
Or 22 can just check if he missed, or check if he hit. Bail-out or slow-play.
Position could well make 22 stronger than AA in NL/PL.
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| Posted by: HeelHo at June 18, 2006, 4:22 pm | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | I dont know if 100 hands is enough. I still cant make myself think Aces are ever at a disadvantage. The thing with the deuces is how the guy tries to play them. If you know he has aces.........youre simply looking to hit the set or a straight and get money in. Where I think the deuces would be in trouble would be trying to move the aces if he thinks the button does not have a bigger pair. The question is how often does 22 commit his stack without the best hand. And if the aces pace themselves. Say escaping from some of the 4 straights and flushes, and maybe not paying off a big bet to a boat. I would say it comes down to the quality of the two players. Better player will make more money than the worse. I still think the worse player can pull out more money with aces, just a deep seated belief. Not as much as the better one, but still in the black.
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| Posted by: DrStrange at June 18, 2006, 2:59 pm | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | Yes Ed, the question is far more complicated. The 81.3% of the hand hands the aces will win are going to be smaller pots than the pots in the 18.2% of the hands the twos will win.
AA vs a set of twos could stack the aces for 100BB. If the twos miss the flop the AA player might only get the 4BB put in preflop.
This isn't a question of how many hands are won - it is a question about how much money is won or lost.
So who is best off at the - the ducks or aces?
DrStrange | | Static Link |
| Posted by: DrStrange at June 18, 2006, 2:14 pm | | Topic: Pocket rockets vs ducks, who has the edge? Forum: Bonus Whores | I saw a thread along this line elsewhere and thought I would see what you all would make of it.
Button has AA, Big blind has 22. (all four cards of different suits) Both players have 100 BB stacks. The game is no limit hold'em, full ring for cash.
Each player has a limited read on the other ~100 hands and knows each is a reasonable player but little more. Each plays roughly 18% of the hands, raises 9% and both would be a bit more aggressive on the button in steal possition but not crazy.
The hand is folded to button. Button raises to 4X the BB and the big blind calls.
The question is, who has the best of it? Put another way, if the hand were played 1,000 times would the aces win the most or the pocket twos?
I don't think it's as obvious as it might seem at first glance -=- DrStrange | | Static Link |
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