| Posted by: DrStrange at March 4, 2006, 9:29 am | | Topic: March Mayhem Forum: Bonus Whores | AmonRaa, this is a game theory question. First, what good are the party points going to be after March Maddness? If they run this promotion twice, your 10,000 points will likely have a higher expected value then since the multi-year accumulation of points could be largely spent on the earlier promotion.
Second, how many 100 party point tickets are going to be sold? BW review of Party Poker suggests these points are worth no more than $0.005 so a 100 point ticket costs ~$0.50. The promotion's prize pool is $100,000, so if there are less than 200,000 tickets sold you are EV+ and if more than 200,000 tickets are issued you are EV-. Keep in mind that your most likely outcome with 100 draws is $0.00 if the promotion is popular. You will need a touch of luck to get paid off.
To me the core question is the future value of Party Points. I personally think they could be more valuable, so I am not playing March Madness. This is a wild guess - it could easily be true this is the best possible use for your points.
Good luck -=- DrStrange |
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