| Posted by: profithunter at June 14, 2001, 9:17 pm | | Topic: Help me out here... Forum: Winner Online |
Dave R,Thank you for your input on this subject. I would like to have the opportunity to review Richard Epstein's ideas. Let me tell you how I arrived at the notion of writing roulette systems and we can go from there if you want to. In the summer of 1990, I bought an inexpensive double zero roulette wheel from a gaming supply store that is a decent replica of the wheels currently being used in casinos today. It is still level. I did this because although my training is in chemistry and not in statistics per se,I accept no data that isn't observed and collected by myself. I didn't live in a gaming state then and had no experience with roulette and therefore no idea about what to expect. My initial reasoning was childishly simple: There are 38 numbers on this wheel. Every number has an equal chance to be "captured" by the ball on every spin. Therefore it is theoretically possible to spin the wheel 38 times in a row and have each number hit at least once with no repeats. I spun the wheel 38 times in a row (wheel clockwise, ball counterclockwise)to see what actually DID happen. 24 of the 38 numbers were represented at least once and several of them repeated in the first set of 38 spins. The remaining 14 were not represented at all of course. I thought surely that they would be captured if I spun the wheel 38 times again. To my surprise only 10 of the remaining 14 were captured. I thought that if I spun the wheel 38 times once more after that surely the remaining 4 numbers had to be captured. Not so - only 3 of them were and the one remaining uncaptured number wasn't hit until the fifth set of 38 spins! Curiousity had the best of me then so I devised a method to crunch the numbers. I called a set of 38 spins a "trial" and over the course of a few months I executed 50 consecutive trials, each time spinning the wheel and ball exactly the same way as the spin before. No the ball doesn't have brains and doesn't know where to go, but with all due respect to your LAW OF INDEPENDENT AVERAGES,the results were remarkably consistent. In the first set of 38 spins the total of unique numbers that hit i.e., numbers that hit at least once ranged between 20 and 27. In the subsequent trial of 38 something in excess of half but never all of the remaining numbers were hit. In the 3rd trial of 38 again something in excess of half and sometimes all of the remaining numbers were hit. Is the phenomenom that I've just described due to the Law of Diminishing Returns? I don't know maybe someone can help me with that. When the real casinos came to town, I of course went observe and record numbers. My results at home held up identically to those I recorded at live play. For example, I've never seen a number repeat itself more 6 times in a row. Your LAW OF INDEPENDENT AVERAGES implies that a number can repeat itself an infinite number of times but I for one am not going to hold my breath waiting for it to do so. Let me stop here and give you or anyone else for that matter a chance to respond should you (they) care to.
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