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Posted by: Trader at December 6, 2001, 4:29 pm

Topic: Preferred Strategy: flat betting or martingale Forum: Winner Online

I hesitate to participate in this topic because there is so much bad information on this topic floating around. It has become a kind of superstition that many gamblers have used to lose more than they can afford. As I understand the math involved, the facts are:

1) All betting systems are exactly equal in the long run as long as you continue to follow basic strategy in your play. If you fail to double or split when appropriate because you are unable or unwilling to risk that much on one hand, martingale will cause you to lose more in the long run.

2) Any betting pattern of raising bets increases your olatility in the short run. You will win or lose more than by flat betting.

3) To use martingale successfully you have to commit enough money to increase your bets all the way to the table maximum, and maybe play some more at the maximum. If you only have enough money to stand five losses in a row, you are almost sure to lose all your money.

With all that said martingale has some good uses. If you are counting cards you may be able to increase your bets with a favorable count and not be recognized as a card counter, at least for a while. It also relieves some of the boredom from flat betting. If you play one of those bonus offers where you have to win more than the bonus, increasing the olatility may be needed so you can win enough to cash out that bonus, but you also increase your chance of a large loss.

Personally, I do use martingale sometimes. Usually I only start doubling after three consecutive lost hands. That reduces the chances of blowing the whole bankroll because it would require ten or more lost hands in a row. Using martingale in a situation where you only get a bonus if you wager your deposit six or seven times before losing it(Vegas Casino Online, Las Vegas USA, and Twin Aces) is not recommended, at least until you have qualified for the bonus.

Using martingale correctly means that you will win more often but will have some big losses too. You may be recognized as a VIP of some kind if you wind up betting the table maximum occasionally, win or lose. Maybe that will get you additional bonus offers.

No betting system is magical or a sure way to win. In the long run they are all the same.

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