Casino Talks

Posted by: KX at May 14, 2002, 9:47 am

Topic: The Worst Promo Ever: Floridita,Grand Casino Venice,Old Samurai,Club Dice,Royal Plaza Forum: Winner Online

I think it´s a good promo!

This is what I answered in this matter at BJ21.com some days ago:

If you could play a game giving you 100% payback you would have a 66,66% chance of reaching $300. You have 2/3 of $300 to start with and thus theres 2/3 possibility of reaching $300 and 1/3 possibility of reaching $0.

Since the casino has a small edge the percentage should be around 65%.

I´m not sure which casino you´re talking about but Vegas Slots had an identical offer and in that case I turned $100 deposit + $100 bonus into $300 and cashed in $300.

If you would chose to place a single bet of $100 you would have approx 4% chance of reaching $350 directly (BJ) and then a small chance of reaching $400 or more (on double/split) and then like 37% chance of reaching $300 directly (any other winning hand). What you seem to forget though is that if you lose that hand you still have $100 left to bet (if you didn´t lose a double/split). If you once again wager $100 you have approx 18,5% chance of reaching $300 by winning twice in a row. Also you can win the first bet, lose again back to $100 and then once again have a chance of reaching $300.

You shouldn´t only consider the chance of winning but also the amount you´ll win if you win! That´s what gives you the EV and that is what´s interesting in my opinion.

Sure you have a large ariance (which I think is a good thing). I don´t understand why so many bonus hunters seek to lower ariance. I think this is stupid. Since most of us play alot of casinos in total it´s smarter to play larger bets, increase ariance and get more time to play more casinos. This will make your risk of being accused of being a bonusabuser lower, it will decrease your check fees and it will give you time to play more casinos, thus giving you larger profits in the long run.

I can understand that the few ppl that really need to know how much he/she will earn every month from the casinos play low ariance. Those of us who, like me, just have gambling as an extra income shouldn´t focus on minimizing ariance.

The optimal way to play an offer like this is to play large bets. The larger bets you play the lower amount of cash will be wagered on average before reaching $300/$0 and thus the less edge for the casino. I wouldn´t play $100 since it will give you $350 on a BJ (or even $400 on a double/split). I would instead chose the lowest play that will reach $300 on a successful double/split (in this case $50). If you lose this bet you might as well bet $75 (so you still can double/split).

Casino Classic
Get $500 free on the house!

Categories:

poker tips online gambling casino slots play casino free gambling online blackjack poker table free casino casino game online casino poker rules playing cards free online poker baccarat craps poker stars poker chips free slots poker internet gambling

Links:

Movie Talks
Forum Extractor

Casino Classic.
Get $500 free on the house!