Casino Talks

Posted by: Sirius at July 17, 2003, 6:31 am

Topic: Casinos with loss insurance Forum: Winner Online

Quote: Originally Posted by hhcfreebie:
Urr... I just ran a simple simulation and the result is so predictable. Take 7,9 s 10 for example, the play strategy never change when the refund is 1-100%. Only when the refund is more than 200% then the play strategy will change.
The reason is so obvious and I feel silly to even run a simulation to prove a well known fact: By play BS you win more often and loose less. No matter how much you get refund a loose is still less desired than a win. (unless the refund is 200% then the "loose" become "win")

The EV is based on the odds of win, lose and push. For example, it is marginally better on average to hit a two card 16 against a 20 but you still win more often if you stay. The EV is only greater for hitting due to the pushes/ties (which are impossible if you don't hit). If you also get a refund on losses (on every hand), the loss would not be 100% so some decisions may change due to the pushes coming into the EV calculation. In other words, if you lose less it doesn't necessarily mean you will win more.

If pushes didn't exist, then it would not make any sense to change the strategy on any particular hand, since it would maximize the wins already.

[This message has been edited by Sirius (edited 07-17-2003).]

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