Casino Talks

Posted by: thelawnet at May 4, 2005, 2:09 am

Topic: Possible at land based Casino?...You be the judge Forum: Winner Online

Quote: Originally Posted by dirtystockbird2
OK...Here is a sample of my last 24 hands played at a ery reputable casino in the business. I am withholding the name until I get some feedback from some people with good with analytical and statistical skills. This is not the first time that I have encountered results like this at this casino. There have been many occassions where I'll go 15 hands while only winning 1, but shame on me if this is in fact as deemed ery unlikely. Anyway here are my last 24 hands at the casino that in effect wiped out my bankroll there. I am keeping an open mind and not making accusations, which is why I'm asking you guys. I must note that this terrible streak occured as soon as I raised my betting limits. Sure I should have gone down in bets, but if this is truly random and honest - it should not matter. Here ya go - enjoy:

1 D 21 P 16 Dealer 22
2 D 18 P 20 Player 11
3 D 21 P 17 Dealer 100
4 D 21 P 17 Dealer 100
5 D 17 P Bust Dealer 100
6 D 20 P 19 Dealer 100
7 D 21 P 18 Dealer 100
8 D 19 P 17 Dealer 50
9 D 20 P 19 Dealer 50
10 D BJ P 19 Dealer 50
11 D 18 P BJ Player 50
12 D 13 P Bust Dealer 50
13 D 20 P 18 Dealer 50
14 D 17 P 17 Push 50
15 D 20 P 18 Dealer 50
16 D 20 P 18 Dealer 50
17 D 20 P 18 Dealer 50
18 D 15 P BJ Player 10
19 D 21 P 19 Dealer 10
20 D 19 P 13 Dealer 20 (Dbl)
21 D 20 P 19 Dealer 10
22 D 20 P 13 Dealer 20 (Dbl)
23 D 18 P 20 Player 10
24 D BJ P 17 Dealer 15

Dealer Summary:
21 7 (inc 2 BJ)
20 8
19 2
18 3
17 2
No Draw 2
Busts 0 (None)

things are never as bad as you think....

You won 4, lost 19. Forgetting the push, the odds of winning are

.475
and of losing
.525

so the odds of 4 or fewer wins is roughly speaking:

=0.525^23+(0.525^22*0.475*COMBIN(23,1))+(0.525^21*0.475^2*COMBIN(23,2))+(0.525^20*0.475^3*COMBIN(23,3))+(0.525^19*0.475^4*COMBIN(23,4))

which is roughly 0.3% So such a run of losses should happen once in every 365 samples, which given that we are only talking about 23 hands is quite often indeed.

Regarding zero busts in 24 hands, the odds of that are 0.705 ^ 24.

This is somewhat less likely, occuring once every 4,400 such samples - for 24 hands played that is every 105,000 hands of play such a run will occur. So it is basically mathematically certain that the dealer will not bust once in 24 hands if you play long enough. I guess you play more, and faster online than at a B&M, so it's just more likely by sheer numbers.

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