In the previous thread, eek made a good point that the actual chance of winning any given hand are not that high. So let me correct my previous calculations. According to The Wizard of Odds, the chances of winning, pushing, and losing any given hand are 43.31%, 8.80%, and 47.89%, respectively.
Unfortunately, I didn't keep track of all the pushes the first time around. However, based on the numbers above, we can calculate that under a fair game, the ratio of wins to losses is 43.31:47.89; in other words, for all non-push hands, there is a 47.49% chance of winning.
Plugging this back into the binomial distribution, the chances of getting 70 or fewer wins out of 187 hands is .0035 approximately 1/300.
Not convinced yet? I did another round of playing. (Yes, it was a waste of money, but if I can convince people not to put their money into this game, I'll consider it worthwhile.) This time I recorded all the pushes as well.
450 rounds: 174 wins, 247 losses, 29 pushes
With a 'non win' defined as a loss or push, there is a 43.31% chance of winning any given hand, and 56.69 chance of getting a non-win.
With the binomial distribution, the chances of getting 174 or fewer wins given these odds is 0.0258, or 1/50. So still ery unlikely, but much more possible.
If take a look at all the non-push rounds, we get a total of 608 rounds (187 from the first session, 421 from the second).
608 rounds: 244 wins, 364 losses
Given that 47.49% of the non-push rounds should be wins, then the chances of getting 244 or fewer wins out of 608 rounds is 0.0002, or 1 out of 5000.
Keep in mind further that I'm not just picking out a particularly bad session. These are the ONLY times I have played BJ at Bodog since switching to real money mode. I have lost a lot of money with them, and I hope you heed this warning and don't make the same mistake I did.
Thanks for reading.
|