Casino Talks

Posted by: Dorkus Malorkus at February 1, 2006, 6:20 pm

Topic: BlackJack Forum: Card Chat

You really don't get it do you? Let's take your win% as 48 seeing as you've used that, and summarise this absolutely basically (not accounting for doubles/splits/insurance/whatever seeing as you ignored them previously).

P(Win hand) = 0.48
P(Lose hand) = 0.52
We ignore the chance of a push as your return is $0.
You bet $x, so 48% of the time you will end up with a profit of $x, and 52% of the time you will end up with a loss of $x
Expected net $ = (0.48*x)-(0.52*x) = -0.04x.

So you are losing money on every hand. Right, what's next?

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One $3.00 win covers the next 2 bets even if they both are losers. Yes, net lose would be $1.00, but next hand is $1.00.

Ok, so you know what I'm gonna do? I'm gonna bet $100 then lots of $1 bets because if I win the $100 bet it covers the next 99 $1 bets! I'm conveniently going to ignore that as each individual bet is -EV then this ridiculous "system" is still -EV just because I can! I R BLAKJAK GENIUS!

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Now you won't win big but you will be ahead.. You really think staying at a table that you are losing at will win you back your money? That's crazy..
Thats like taking a big hit in hold-em and trying to get your money back.

Thank you for making me laugh. If you're losing in holdem, it may well be because of bad table selection, in which case it makes sense to move tables. But, and this may be news to you, I'm not sure, in Blackjack you're playing against the house, not other players, so the concept of table selection in blackjack is ridiculous unless a particular dealer is trying to short-change you intentionally, in which case moving tables will increase your EV, but it's still always negative.

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You win your 1st 3 hands.. Net gain of $7.00.. Now lets say you lose 2 straight, win 1, lose 1 and win 4 straight.. then lose 3..

What we have..Net gain of $3.00.. avg won per hand .49 a hand...

Let's assume that Elvis crashes a pink spotted UFO filled with $1 zillion dollars on the casino while you're playing blackjack, and all this money conveniently falls into your pocket without anyone noticing. Wow then your gain is astronomical! Ok, so I'm not paying any attention to the actual odds of this chain of events occuring, but seeing as you paid no attention to it either I thought it would be okay.

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If you honestly don't think the simplicity of 3 don't work, by all means give it a try. If it doesn't work then not everyone is made to work well with simplicity.

It's not a case of "think", it's a case of "know".

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Reason why I say leave a table after 3 loses.. most of the time the cards are cold(you shouldn't be at a table that is giving you cold cards).

Just like you should always call heads if a coin has flipped tails the last 10 times because it's obviously more likely to come up heads now, right?

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It is the most simpliest Math card game out there..Closest person to 21 wins.

Yes, it is pretty simple. But you don't seem to understand it.

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You could even start the other way, bet $1.00, bet $3.00, bet $1.00, bet $3.00..

One $3.00 win covers the next 2 bets even if they both are losers. Yes, net lose would be $1.00, but next hand is $1.00..

You are betting 48% to win.. so yes the odds swing in the house's favor by 2%, but you are risking at most $2.33 a hand out of $7.00 using the $3.00 bet 1st and $1.66 a hand out of $5.00 using the $1.00 bet 1st.

So avg bet is 33.3% of your 3 bets s a 48% to win... looks to me like the edge is taken away.

...what?

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