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Posted by: twizzybop at February 1, 2006, 3:51 am

Topic: BlackJack Forum: Card Chat

1st stop assuming because that makes an ass out of you and me..

Third bet (assuming first and second are lost): You are risking $9 for a less than 50% chance of a net gain of $5

Nope you have it wrong.. you are risking $3.00 on the $4.00 that you lost on the 1st and 2nd bet.... Like I said every other bet is 3X.... meaning at most you could lose is $7.00

Now since we are making asses out of ourselves.. you win 1st hand.. net of $3.00.. you lose next 2.. Net lose of only $1.00(there is your house edge).

Now assume again you win the 1st 2 hands and lose the 3rd.. Net gain of $1.00..So now lets assume after those 3 hands and that net gain of $1.00

You lose the next 2..Net lose of $3.00..So in 5 hands of Black Jack you have lost $3.00, making that on avg of .60 a hand.

Now you won't win big but you will be ahead.. You really think staying at a table that you are losing at will win you back your money? That's crazy..
Thats like taking a big hit in hold-em and trying to get your money back.

Yet lets assume again here.. so many possibilities..

You win your 1st 3 hands.. Net gain of $7.00.. Now lets say you lose 2 straight, win 1, lose 1 and win 4 straight.. then lose 3..

What we have..Net gain of $3.00.. avg won per hand .49 a hand...

That is why the play of 3 comes in.. play 3X the amount bet every other hand, you lose 3 hands.. give it up.

There is no simple "system" with which blackjack can be beaten in the long run

If you honestly don't think the simplicity of 3 don't work, by all means give it a try. If it doesn't work then not everyone is made to work well with simplicity.

Now I know what you will ask me.. assuming that you do use the simple 3.
You win $1.00, lose $3.00, win $1.00, lose $3.00.. clearly shows every 2 hands a net lose of $2.00.

So simplicity again happens.. I said lose 3 hands and then don't play at that table anymore. So net lose at most would be $7.00.. So If you are going to stop at $7.00, why wouldn't you stop at the $6.00 or $8.00 lose at the net lose of $2.00 per 2 hands.

The edge is only 2% diffrence.. you honestly think that you will run into the 2% black because of simplicity. No cards to count.

Reason why I say leave a table after 3 loses.. most of the time the cards are cold(you shouldn't be at a table that is giving you cold cards).

It is the most simpliest Math card game out there..Closest person to 21 wins.

You could even start the other way, bet $1.00, bet $3.00, bet $1.00, bet $3.00..

One $3.00 win covers the next 2 bets even if they both are losers. Yes, net lose would be $1.00, but next hand is $1.00..

You are betting 48% to win.. so yes the odds swing in the house's favor by 2%, but you are risking at most $2.33 a hand out of $7.00 using the $3.00 bet 1st and $1.66 a hand out of $5.00 using the $1.00 bet 1st.

So avg bet is 33.3% of your 3 bets s a 48% to win... looks to me like the edge is taken away.

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