Casino Talks

Posted by: Dorkus Malorkus at January 31, 2006, 8:18 pm

Topic: BlackJack Forum: Card Chat

lol?

When you bet $1, your average return is less than $1. When you bet $3, your average return is less than $3. Changing tables has no effect on long-term odds (unless you're being shafted at one table, in which case all your bets might become slightly -EV as opposed to greatly -EV.

If you mean multiplying your bet by three times after a losing bet, that's still -EV. To explain...

First bet: You risk $1 to win $1
Second bet (assuming first is lost): You risk $3 for a less than 50% chance of a net gain of $2
Third bet (assuming first and second are lost): You are risking $9 for a less than 50% chance of a net gain of $5

...and so on if you decide to continue past then. For each subsequent bet, you are getting a gradually smaller net return on the money you're investing. Of course, you could keep trebling your bet for a long time if you have the funds, but that's what casinos have maximum limits for - it isn't hard to lose a lot of blackjack hands in a row, just as it isn't hard to win a lot in a row, but in the long run it is always -EV.

There is no simple "system" with which blackjack can be beaten in the long run (there is card counting of course, but that's hardly "simple", and will of course get you banned from most casinos if spotted). If there was, everyone would be using it and casinos wouldn't be spreading blackjack, full stop.

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