Casino Talks

Posted by: lonemessiah at April 4, 2005, 4:45 pm

Topic: All-In Luck Of The Draw Forum: Card Chat

Small point, but it is a complete myth that pocket 2's will beat AK more often than not, you have a 49% chance of making that pair over the 5 cards, whilst the have a 19% chance of making 3 of a kind to beat your pair (meaning that it is a roughly 40-60 in favour of the 2's if you just look at the cards in your hand).

Now we also have to take into account straights, you have over twice as much chance of hitting a straight with AK (since one of the aces has gone to spoil the a,2,3,4,5)

If a flush comes up the 2's are not likely to win it for you, aces or kings will.

And finally if two pairs come up, you suddenly have the worst kicker possible, and any hand will beat you, let alone AK.

This doesn't take into account other combinations such as full houses and the AK hitting 2 pair or 3 of a kind, as these are too rare to make much of a difference.

So as you can see AK is a massive hand, and with a fairly decent chance of making that pair well worth a gamble if you think that your opponent is just trying to buy the chips.

Remember if you do hit a pair, then only 2 pairs or greater will beat you.

And that bit about 'someone is likely to be sitting with an ace or king as well' really can't be taken into the odds, because you just don't know that they are, for all you know they could be sitting there with the 2 Q's amongst them, and no AK which improves your odds no end

All that said though, i would still be unwilling to go all-in myself in with AK but it is definatly worth a hefty bet

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