| Posted by: Mike Church at January 28, 2005, 7:16 pm | | Topic: calculating odds Forum: Card Chat |
That's a good article. Yes, pot odds are important; no poker player can ensure a good night every time. A good poker player on $5/$10 might have a mean expectation of $10 per hour and a standard dev. of $100. In a 6-hour night, he only has a 59% chance of coming out positive, but over many nights he should rise. You can only win at poker if you take positive-expectation moves and reject negative-exp. opportunities (even when tempting).
Fallacies I've seen a lot of beginning poker players make include:
Overestimating long-shot probabilities (a common human fallacy, since the human brain can't really get itself about how unlikely, say, a 600:1 shot is),failing to observe other players and model their strategies,bluffing too often and failing to understand the true purpose of bluffing (which is to make other players call when you do have a hand; it's not about the free blinds),calling when they shouldn't, to "keep people honest" or for curiosity's sake,defending the SB/Bring-in on a junk hand like 84 off-suit. Where computations get tricky, as the article points out, are the bet and implied odds. Modelling subjective probabilities (i.e. probabilities related to human strategy that can only be observed, not computed) is ery tricky, I find.
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