Casino Talks

Posted by: xdmanx007 at June 4, 2005, 6:45 am

Topic: Questions for the more advanced players Forum: Card Chat

Quote: Originally Posted by diabloblanco

I have a couple questions for those that are actually students of hold 'em and are at the more advanced levels with regards to knowledge of the game.

First, I was rummaging around in some old threads last night, just looking for something interesting and I came upon a thread where a player was bitching about an opponent in an online casino being dealt pocket aces 2 consecutive hands. From what I have seen so far this person complains a lot so the thread didn't really strike me until I got to a reply where another poster spat out some numbers and came up with odds of 48,000 and change to 1 of this actually happening. This number as I recall was based on the odds of it happening in one game then doubled or something similar. This confused me and here's why.

Statistically, isn't the chance of being dealt a particular hand, be it AA or 88, the same for each hand dealt. The act of gathering played cards, shuffling, cutting, and dealing are all factors that are completely detatched from the game and are indvidual random events that contribute to the unpredictability of the dealt cards. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't that mean, when simplified, that the odds of being dealt a particular hand no matter the rank don't fluctuate with number of consecutive hands? Doesn't that also mean that pocket aces have an equal statistical probability of being in the hole on every single hand that is dealt? Given of course that no other mitigating factors are changed such as number of players at the table.

If what I am thinking is correct then why all the complaining from people when opponents are dealt consecutive pocket pairs in online play where RNG's are used? The only factor that seems to me would affect the probability of pairs would be the number of players in the game. Am I completely wrong or right? Thanks for reading this long post and in advance for your thoughts on this.

You are correct... For example you will not hit a 4 flush draw on the turn or river 35% of the time you have a 35% chace of hitting everyhand! I believe that is simplifing what you are getting at. You can't look at a hand like well I have a 1 in 4 chance and missed the last 3 so the next should fall. The percentages are the percentages for an individual hand. Yes you are correct MOST players don't look at it this way but it the correct way to look each hand. Although over 100,000 hands or so the numbers should be close! I hope that is what you were looking for if I need to clarify I am happy to try

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