Casino Talks

Posted by: F Paulsson at March 20, 2006, 7:01 am
Topic: Book Discussion: Theory of Poker, chapters 1-3. Forum: Card Chat

He made a mistake on the flop; He would surely not have pushed all in if he had seen your cards. He has about 10 outs, which gives him roughly 40% equity in this pot, so you "won" 60% of his all-in bet.

Given the implied odds, you might have made an okay call preflop, this depends on stack sizes, though. Would you have called preflop if you knew he had pocket aces?

What the fundamental theorem says is that if you know what everyone has, there's a mathematically correct way to play, and that every time you deviate from this, you lose money. Since we can never (well, barring the time when someone actually shows us their cards) know what anyone has, we have to put people on a range of hands and act according to the most likely scenario. We will often be wrong, but that's alright as long as our opponents make worse mistakes than we do.

It's clear that deception plays a powerful role when it comes to forcing people to make mistakes; fooling people into making raises or calls they shouldn't be making, or especially fooling people into folding the best hand. But for low stakes games, deception is among the most overrated aspects of the game, given how prone to make mistakes your opponents already are.

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