| Posted by: spore at October 3, 2006, 5:21 am | | Topic: "Peeling off" Forum: Card Chat |
Good advice there FP. I have a question though... with your example of KQ, you're getting about 4:1 on a call on the flop, and prior to this you had advocated not raising preflop. However, in this instance.. had you raised preflop most likely you would have gotten the rest to just call the raise, this would in effect have given you about your target odds to call on your 6-outer (two overs).
So, my (followup) question would be: Is it a good idea to raise preflop in hopes of giving yourself better pot odds on the flop with a hand that is likely to miss the flop.. ie. AK, KQ?
Let's look at this.
It's ~40% to hit a pair on the flop, after that you've got about ~25% to hit by the river, about ~13% to hit on each street. So 13% you need about 7.7:1 to call.
Say there are 4 players to the flop, let's assume that BB/SB are in plus you and somebody in middle position. For simplicity we're playing $1/$2. You've got $4 in the pot if everyone just calls. A bet on the flop would $1 into a $4 pot, so you're getting between 5:1 and 7:1 on your call (depending on the amount of folds). However, if you had raised preflop, most people at low-limits will call 2-bets just as easily as they would unraised. So in the same situation we'll assume again we have 4 players to the flop who've all called a 2-bet. so now we have $8 in the pot. A bet on the flop would give you anywhere from 9:1 to 11:1 on the call.
This, of course, is assuming that no one re-raises at any point. But the scenarios I've outlined above are definitely not a long shot at any low-limit games I've played.
So how about it? Is it a good idea to go in with a "I'm probably going to miss the flop" attitude, and play pre-flop to give yourself better odds on the flop? By the numbers it looks like a good ploy with hands like AK/KQ that can easily miss the flop but still be the best hand if they pair up on 4/5 street.
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