| Posted by: Bombjack at November 2, 2006, 7:11 pm | | Topic: Why you DON'T slowplay small sets Forum: Card Chat |
I suppose you mean the chances of there being 2 of one suit for a flush draw, or a possible straight on the turn.
If there's no pair on the board:
the chances of there being 2 of one suit aries ery slightly depending on whether your own cards are suited, but ignoring your hole cards it's
1-((39/51)*(26/50)) = 60%
Pretty much ANY flop gives a possible straight draw, for example ANY flop containing an Ace. E.g. A-6-10 is a straight draw for 7-8.
Harder to think of ones that don't... there are only a few like 2-7-K, 2-7-Q, 3-8-K, 2-8-K... in fact I think it's only those four.
So for no pair it's about 99%.
Of course if there is a pair on the board the chances of straight / flush draws go down. With a pair, the chance the third card is the same suit as the first two is 24/50 = 48%.
There will be a straight draw whenever there's less than a 4-gap between the pair and the other card, e.g. 8-8-Q gives a straight draw for J-10, but 8-8-K doesn't. Difficult to work out but it's probably around 50% of the time.
Adding these together, there's a straight or flush draw on about 75% of the time if the board's paired.
The chances of your opponent actually holding the right cards to make these draws, however, is a lot lower. About 1 in 20 that each opponent has a flush draw if there's 2 of one suit on the board. Straight draw - too complicated to work out (!) but pretty unlikely.
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