Casino Talks

Posted by: Jack Daniels at November 18, 2006, 3:08 pm

Topic: counting the flop Forum: Card Chat

Quote: Originally Posted by tenbob

Poker is rigged.

Not Poker, just Flops.

Sandro, what you're explaining doesn't appear to be anything more that random distribution that your mind is finding a pattern in because it wants to. Even in nature there are patterns that do occur, sometimes with good reason.

Take your type 1 flop, with no face cards on the flop. You say that if this happens, then you can bet a face card is coming up. Well, yeah, I would think that is a better bet as that means that all of the face cards can be available to come up now since we didn't see any on the flop. If none came on the flop, then (counting aces) there are 16 face cards left of the 48 unseen cards (you didn't define pocket cards in your theory, so I'm assuming they are non-face cards. Even if they are face cards, the #s would be skewed proportionally so my example still stands). So if you mean just coming up on the turn, odds are just under 2 to 1 to hit a face card (vs little over 2 to 1 if 1 face card is on the flop and over 2.5 to 1 if three face cards are on the flop). If you mean turn and river combined, then with no face on the flop, an upcoming face would be around 0.75 to 1 (a favorite). With one face on the flop, turn and river combined are still a favorite, but worse at 0.85 to 1. And if the flop is three faces, then you are back near 1.1 to 1, no longer a favorite.

So, like tenbob said, I'd be interest to see a deeper explanation on your 'theory'.

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