Casino Talks

Posted by: Dorkus Malorkus at February 9, 2007, 5:58 pm

Topic: Help with expected value Forum: Card Chat

It's essentially ((probability of winning)*(amount won when we win)) - ((probability of losing)*(amount lost when we lose))

so say we roll a 6-sided die and guess a number, if we're correct we gain $80, if we're wrong we lose $15.

EV = ((1/6)*$80) - ((5/6)*$15) = 13.3 - 12.5 = 0.8

So your EV would be $0.8 (80 cents) per roll of the dice, so obviously it's a good bet. Yes, it's somewhat related to odds, returning to the dice example for instance you know if you're getting better than 5-1 odds that the bet is good because you know the odds of rolling any given number are 5-1.

More complicated instances arise in poker though, because we don't have complete information available to us, so we have to operate through a kind of 'educated guesswork' in giving our opponent possible hands and working out from there what is +EV and what isn't.

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