| Posted by: alan1983 at March 22, 2007, 11:32 am | | Topic: 3 betting Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by stormswa
ok lets analize it then.
AK you bet $6 and Qd9d comes
pot $12
flop is K with 2 diamonds
guy bet $6 and you make it $18 and he calls.
lets stop right there.
$48 right there.
flush hits 3 out of 10 times right so you lose $24 x 3= $72 becuase we are good players and can fold. now the other 7 times they dont hit we win $24x7= $168 and that is without us pricing him in all the way down. Now that to say the flush dosent hit on river we lost a little bit more but not much. And after our 3 bet on the flop we can punish him on turn if we want seeing as we put him on flush draw by now. Also there is no way QK bets this pot after our flop raise when the flush hits, sure he could bluff us once and awhile but usually with a flush out and someone holding QK they wont.
so you can see just by flop play we win more then we would lose.
In this example, you bet pot at the same time you 3-raised him. but anyway, yes youd still win more than youd lose BUT, overall youd be winning less than what youd have when you bet bigger.
Youd be saving the bet difference 30% of the time, but youd be winning it less 70% of the time. So theres a 40% of the bet difference loss, maybe less since theyd fold more, but then again thatd apply to the 30% you lose as well.
If you give them odds to chase, then theyre making +EV plays against you. Therefore on long run that +EV is coming out of your pocket.
of course with a AK and KQ its different, but once again its odds. KQ only has 3 outs to beat you, so 3-betting just about any bet would make it a -EV play for them to call you.
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