| Posted by: titans4ever at July 6, 2007, 4:22 pm | | Topic: Folding AA preflop Forum: Card Chat |
Quote: Originally Posted by titans4ever
Even AA against 3 other players has less than a 50% chance to hold up. You have 2 choices and I will do the math and show you what would happen either way. i oted fold before I started writing this post.
So this is how you finish if you call:
50% time 4th and win 1 mill
10% time 3rd for $2 mill (bad beats puts you here)
25% time 2nd for $ 6 mill (where you should finish after winning with AA)
15% time 1st for $12 mill (keep that good card run going)
1,000,000x .5 + 2,000,000 x .1 + 4,000,000 x .25 + 12,000,000 x .15 = 3.5 mill ave winnings
folding here I would expect something like this
0% finish 4th (someone will bust out)
60% finish 3rd for 2 mill (shortstacked against 2 larger stacks)
35% finish 2nd for 4 mil (you double up or triple up once and are back in and keep it going)
You will probably finish 2nd even more. I forgot that the big stack could knock out both during the hand. This would actually push the ave winnings here higher.
5% finish 1st for 12 mil (card gods loved you from then on)
2,000,000 x .6 + 4,000,000 x .35 + 12,000,000 x .5 = 3.6 mill ave earnings now it would be closer to 3.7 to 3.9 mil
Averages on guess finishing makes this look like a real coin flip and won't matter either way. I oted fold and would average an extra 100,000 over the long run by folding. I now think fold is the right option. My bad doing this the first time.
Anyone else want to try and make a longer and more meaningless post over some wierd question.
That is how you would do the math to see where you would finish. I could get alot more specific if you had only given chip counts instead of estimates.
made a correction after thinking about it. Editing time was already past.
P.S. I would just be happy to be in that situation no matter what with those players.
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