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Posted by: titans4ever at July 6, 2007, 3:11 pm

Topic: Folding AA preflop Forum: Card Chat

Even AA against 3 other players has less than a 50% chance to hold up. You have 2 choices and I will do the math and show you what would happen either way. i oted fold before I started writing this post.

So this is how you finish if you call:
50% time 4th and win 1 mill
10% time 3rd for $2 mill (bad beats puts you here)
25% time 2nd for $ 6 mill (where you should finish after winning with AA)
15% time 1st for $12 mill (keep that good card run going)

1,000,000x .5 + 2,000,000 x .1 + 4,000,000 x .25 + 12,000,000 x .15 = 3.5 mill ave winnings

folding here I would expect something like this
0% finish 4th (someone will bust out)
60% finish 3rd for 2 mill (shortstacked against 2 larger stacks)
35% finish 2nd for 4 mil (you double up or triple up once and are back in and keep it going)
5% finish 1st for 12 mil (card gods loved you from then on)

2,000,000 x .6 + 4,000,000 x .35 + 12,000,000 x .5 = 3.6 mill ave earnings

Averages on guess finishing makes this look like a real coin flip and won't matter either way. I oted fold and would average an extra 100,000 over the long run by folding.

Anyone else want to try and make a longer and more meaningless post over some wierd question.

That is how you would do the math to see where you would finish. I could get alot more specific if you had only given chip counts instead of estimates.

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