Casino Talks

Posted by: dj11 at November 30, 2007, 10:00 pm

Topic: Effect of opponents bad play on long term results? Forum: Card Chat

spore, that is a great question.

Harrington suggests bluffing 10%, (this thought is currently being bantered around here), but I donk think I have read anywhere any notion of calculating in the 'donk factor'. LMAO

I have no concept at first glance of how big it might be, and until that figure gets a number, we may be hopelessly lost.

So lets think about it;

Things that would be important in determining a 'donk factor'
-Reads. Probably most important, but remember, even pros get to donk one off on occasion.
-Is the supposed donk in the hand
-If he is in, just how big a donk is he, and can we saddle him?
---Total donk disregards that he is playing against a live human. As they loose their donkiness, the begin to realize that they are. Biggest donk disregards others the most.

So we might consider an example where there are 3 good players (not totally prone to donkish behavior) and a donk in the hand, meaning the donk is at that moment 25% of a calculation. Since we have defined him as a donk, we assume that regardless of what betting happens he's hanging in. In this case we can apply an increase in implied odds over the good players of 33%. Minus the 25% of the time the donk just flat out gets the cards in this scenario, means that at this point, I'll propose that the donk factor is 8% in our favor!

Lessons in donk factor calculations, chapter one. The 8% solution.........

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