Casino Talks

Posted by: F Paulsson at December 14, 2005, 11:56 pm
Topic: More poker odds stuff Forum: Card Chat

You're a little off the mark, here. Let me see if I can break it down properly:

First, disregard the effective odds (and implied odds), and let's look at your immediate pot odds:
Presuming you're referring to Hold'em, and you're on the flop, your odds of hitting the flush on the next card are about 4-to-1. The pot is offering you 120-to-20, or 6-to-1 odds. This is a call you should make, because your odds of hitting your draw on the turn are profitable!

Where you went wrong in this particular example is that you're confusing your immediate odds (of hitting your hand on the next card) with your "total odds" (in lack of a better term) of hitting your hand either on the turn or on the river. In fact, you have almost a 40% chance of improving to a flush if you combine both the turn and the river.

Effective odds come into play when you're looking at your chance for improving either on the turn or on the river, but in this case, you have the odds to call just based on the immediate chance of improving.

Does that make sense? I could go into deeper detail, but I'm on a bit of a tight schedule right now. Be happy to help later, though

Edit: Just proof-reading shows me I didn't make perfect sense - sorry about that, but I'll have to get back to you a little later.

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