Quote: Originally Posted by rreevy
BTW:
Assuming we are playing European (single zero) roulette, betting £400 on a single number. Our number will come up, on average, once every 37 times we do this.
1 time we WIN £14,000
36 times we LOSE £400 (total £14,400)
Overall we have lost £400. We have bet £14,800 (37 x £400). The amount we have lost is 2.703% of the amount bet. So we have a negative expectation of about 2.7%, or 1/37, which just happens to be the house edge at European roulette.
There is NO way that betting on excluded games can turn an unprofitable bonus (from a bonus hunter's point of iew) into a profitable one, at least not for a cashable bonus. It MAY be true for a sticky, though I doubt it makes any difference in the long run.
Don't you only lose 7200 since half of your bets are bonus funds?
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