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Posted by: todd at August 3, 2005, 3:31 am

Topic: Average cold streak for limit.. 100 BB normal? Forum: Bonus Whores

A typical game has an SD/100 of 12 BB. Suppose you are a long-term 1BB/100 winner in this game.

Over the course of 32400 hands, losing 324 BB is precisely a -3 sigma event.

The advice to keep a 300+ BB bankroll isn't a psychological one. It's a mathematical one. There is a very real chance that even a winning player loses 300+ BB. 200+BB losses by winners happen quite often.

If you are playing in a shorthanded game or some other kind of game with more variance, or if you're a smaller winner than 1BB/100, your situation is even worse than the one I described above.

Of course, if you're winning more than 1BB/100 and/or have an SD/100 < 12 BB, your situation may be better than the one described above, but I don't know how many posters on this board meet that description.

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