| Posted by: topdawg2003 at September 27, 2005, 6:23 pm | | Topic: Interesting NL hand, Game Theory analysis... Forum: Bonus Whores | $1 / $2 NL
Well, i have 4 6 spades ($240 in chips) in the cutoff and limp
button ($275 in chips) (tight player) raises - to $8
BB Calls, I call
Flop is Qc 3d 5s
BB Checks
I Bet $10 (hoping to take a cheap card or gage if he's on AK or something to that effect)
Button Raises to $50 ($85 in the pot, $40 for me to call the raise)
BB Folds
At this point, I know he's on a big pair or AQ (at the very least) and i don't think he's capable of making a laydown of that sort if i move all in here (the calculations i made later show that all in is an awful play)
So basically, i'm left with 2 options, call and see the turn and hope i hit, or lay it down on the flop (if i hit, i'm about 95% confident i get paid off)
Now, I obviously folded... but when i went back and made some calculations for the hand, my EV was highest calling the flop raise and folding if i missed on the turn (unless the turn was a spade, in which case, i could justify a reasonable sized call).... and my EV (assuming my opponent folded 55% of the time to an all-in) was higher than just folding on the flop
so clearly... all in was a bad option (cause, again, i don't think he's capable of folding his hand more than 10%)...
i went into some game theory to check out my results, but my EV by calling the flop bet is ~~+$30... by folding my EV is (-$1
Now, anyone with any thoughts on this... or whether my calculations were way too generous for calling on the flop... i really feel like i threw away money by making this fold... any thoughts... |
| |
Similar entries:
Playtech Vide Poker: 0.6% likely to be randomly dealt
Micro limit cash tables, 5 volunteers needed
Just purchased
Posting Hands
Game Theory
POST MORE HAND HISTORIES!!
Is there ever a time to flood AA preflop
Harrington's %10 bluffing rule
Paid "expert" sells his soul to Casino Bar
The Theory of Poker - David Sklansky
|
|
Casino Classic
Get $500 free on the house!
Categories:
poker rooms gambling system online slots casinos poker hands poker poker cards best casino roulette internet gambling poker games casino slots poker chip sets online poker online casinos casino game playing cards poker chips play poker poker strategy
Links:
Movie Talks
Forum Extractor
|